Key Facts
- XRP flirts with $3: The token hovered around the psychological $3 mark through October 6–7, 2025, buoyed by a broader crypto market rally (Bitcoin’s market cap hit a record $4.27 trillion as BTC broke above $125k) [1]. XRP briefly climbed above $3 on Oct. 6 and closed around $2.99 that day (up ~0.7%) [2], consolidating near $2.98 on Oct. 7 amid tight technical ranges.
- Whale dump triggers caution: A large whale sold over 160 million XRP (nearly $480 million worth), a move that sent “ripples” of concern through the community [3]. Analysts warned this dump could destabilize XRP’s $3 support zone [4], and trading momentum turned shaky as traders grew wary of further sell-offs.
- Catalysts on the horizon: Traders are wagering on major upcoming catalysts to ignite an XRP breakout. In particular, speculation is growing that U.S. regulators could approve a spot XRP ETF (with key decisions expected by mid-October) [5], and rumors swirl that Ripple might obtain a U.S. banking license [6]. Such developments – alongside rising institutional adoption of XRP – are seen as potential game-changers that could finally propel prices beyond the stubborn $3–$3.30 resistance.
- Political and legal tailwinds: Former President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto comments on Oct. 6 (after meeting with Ripple executives) fueled optimism that XRP might play a role in modernizing the U.S. financial system [7]. Meanwhile, Ripple’s prolonged legal battle with the SEC officially ended in August 2025 with a settlement, removing a major regulatory cloud [8]. In the aftermath, Ripple even snagged a fintech award in London, underscoring positive industry recognition for its cross-border payment technology [9].
- Mixed expert outlooks:Analysts are split on where XRP heads next. Technicians note XRP must clear key levels around $3.30 – and especially ~$3.70 – to confirm a true bullish trend reversal [10] [11]. Some forecasts are extremely bullish (Standard Chartered sees ~$5+ by year-end [12], and one crypto strategist even envisions ~$5.89 if an ETF spurs big inflows [13]). Yet others urge caution: without a new catalyst, XRP could remain range-bound or dip under $3 again, especially if whale selling persists and trading volumes stay soft [14] [15].
XRP Price Performance and Chart Trends (Oct 6–7)
Over the past two days, XRP’s price has held remarkably steady near the $3.00 level, a crucial psychological and technical threshold. On Monday (Oct. 6), XRP briefly reclaimed $3 during intraday trade and settled at about $2.9905 by the day’s close [16]. That marked a modest +0.68% gain for the day – a continuation of its early “Uptober” upswing. By Tuesday (Oct. 7), the token was consolidating around $2.98 with low volatility [17], barely budging as traders awaited a decisive move. In fact, XRP’s 24-hour change was under 1%, trading roughly at $3.01 (≈0.91% up) at press time on Oct. 7 [18]. This stagnant price action belies the brewing tension evident on the charts.
Technical analysis shows XRP’s price coiling into a symmetrical triangle pattern in recent weeks [19]. As shown above, the coin’s highs have been progressively lower since its late-August peak (~$3.30–$3.40 region), while its lows have been climbing upward off the summer troughs (rising trendline). This tightening price range has squeezed XRP’s 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages together in the mid-$2.90s [20]. Such convergence of key MAs is a classic hallmark of diminished volatility preceding a potential breakout. Likewise, the On-Balance Volume line has been ticking higher even as price movement stalled [21], indicating that accumulation may be quietly underway (i.e. buyers are slowly building positions).
Key support and resistance levels frame XRP’s near-term outlook. On the downside, $2.85 is the immediate floor that bulls are defending (aligned with the triangle’s lower trendline and the 100-day EMA) [22]. A slip below that (and especially under ~$2.80) could invite a larger pullback toward the next support around $2.63 (200-day EMA) [23]. On the upside, $3.05–$3.10 is the first barrier (recent local highs), followed by a stronger ceiling at $3.20 (the triangle’s upper bound) [24]. Analysts note that a confirmed breakout above ~$3.20 would open the door toward $3.35–$3.60 in the short run [25]. In fact, $3.30 is viewed as the “market’s key battleground” now; a solid close above that zone could accelerate gains into the low-$4s where the next major resistance (the $3.70 region) awaits [26] [27]. That $3.70 level is notable as the neckline of a long-term inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming on XRP’s chart – a bullish structure that, if triggered, might signal a trend reversal toward much higher targets [28] [29].
Despite the largely flat price over these two days, traders are positioning for a big move. Futures market data shows XRP’s open interest (aggregate value of outstanding futures contracts) has surged to roughly $3 billion as of Oct. 6 [30]. This jump in OI – up from around $2.3B in late September – reflects a spike in leveraged bets, as speculators anticipate a breakout from XRP’s tight range. “XRP is preparing for a strong move,” one analyst noted, projecting a possible rally to $4.50 if bulls can clear the psychological $3 hurdle that has capped the price so far [31]. However, a caution flag accompanies the optimism: trading volumes in the past 24 hours have actually dropped ~11%, hinting at weakening immediate momentum even as OI climbs [32] [33]. In other words, many traders have placed their bets, but the actual buying pressure has yet to materialize. This makes the $3 zone a critical pivot – a spike in volume on a break above (or below) that level could quickly validate one side of those leveraged trades and send XRP on a sharper trajectory.
Market Drivers: Uptober Optimism, ETF Hype, and Political Winds
Several converging factors set the stage for XRP’s recent performance. First, the overall crypto market has been on a tear entering October – often playfully dubbed “Uptober” by traders for its historical bullish bias. This year seems to be living up to the name: the total crypto market cap hit an all-time high of ~$4.27 trillion early this week as bellwether coins surged [34]. Notably, Bitcoin soared to new record prices above $125,000 [35], and Ethereum and Solana also notched strong gains. This risk-on wave lifted XRP to reclaim the $3 level on Oct. 6, riding the coattails of broad positive sentiment. Macroeconomic cues are contributing as well – traders are eyeing a series of Federal Reserve rate cuts in Q4 2025 that could inject liquidity, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has markets betting on a more dovish Fed stance ahead [36]. Such conditions tend to drive demand for risk assets like crypto, creating a supportive backdrop for tokens such as XRP.
However, while XRP enjoyed the general market upswing, it lagged behind some of its peers during this rally. In fact, analysts point out that Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana significantly outperformed XRP in the latest breakout [37]. One key reason is the ETF effect: BTC and ETH have benefited immensely from the advent of U.S. spot ETF products, which opened the floodgates to institutional capital. Solana, too, saw a surge as it became a popular target for new fund products and inflows from institutions. XRP, by contrast, has no approved spot ETFs yet, putting it at a relative disadvantage in attracting fresh large-scale investment. “XRP is up but struggling to stay above $3 even though Bitcoin has reached another ATH,” noted pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan, highlighting how BTC and ETH “enjoy a market advantage of spot ETFs having been approved while the SEC delays approving other altcoin ETFs”. “How long can the delay of spot XRP ETFs continue?” he mused, suggesting XRP’s moment could be coming [38]. The numbers tell the story: so far in October, XRP is up ~5.4% against the U.S. dollar – a respectable gain – but XRP/BTC is down ~3.85% and XRP/ETH is down over 7% for the month, meaning XRP has lost ground against those majors [39]. Even Solana (SOL) outpaced XRP by ~7.4% in the same period [40]. This divergence underscores how the presence (or absence) of institutional vehicles can impact each coin’s performance. It also sets the stage for ETF speculation as a major narrative for XRP in the days ahead.
Indeed, anticipation of a possible XRP ETF approval is reaching a fever pitch. Industry reports note that multiple XRP spot ETF applications are under U.S. SEC review – for instance, Grayscale has seven XRP ETFs in registration awaiting a decision [41]. The SEC’s next decision window arrives around October 18, 2025, which analysts are calling a potential “binary event” for XRP’s Q4 trajectory [42]. If an XRP ETF (or several) get the green light, it could “open the floodgates” for Main Street and Wall Street money to pour into XRP [43]. Standard Chartered Bank recently went on record predicting that such a scenario could propel XRP above $5 by December 2025 (and even up to ~$12.50 by 2028) [44] – a testament to how significant ETF-related inflows might be. By comparison, after the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in late 2024, BTC’s price skyrocketed ~169% over the following year [45]. XRP bulls argue that XRP could see a similar trajectory once it has its own ETF, given XRP’s combination of investor familiarity and real-world utility. On the flip side, if the SEC delays or denies these ETF applications, it could be a near-term letdown that keeps XRP stuck in its holding pattern. At present, all eyes are on the regulators, making mid-October a potentially pivotal moment.
Beyond the ETF drama, Ripple’s recent strides on the regulatory and political front are also boosting sentiment. The legal cloud that hung over XRP for years has finally lifted – in August 2025, Ripple Labs and the U.S. SEC agreed to dismiss all remaining legal appeals, formally ending their high-profile lawsuit [46] [47]. Ripple paid a settlement fine (around $125 million) and secured clarity that XRP itself is not a security in secondary market trading. This outcome – essentially a total victory for Ripple’s claim that XRP is a legitimate digital asset – removed a tremendous source of uncertainty. It paved the way for major U.S. exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken to relist XRP and for institutions to more comfortably engage with it. Ripple wasted no time capitalizing on the momentum: it has been pushing new partnerships and even won the “Best Initiative in Digital Currencies” award at the PAY360 fintech awards in London on Oct. 1 [48] [49]. Ripple’s UK Managing Director called it “a huge endorsement” of the real-world utility of crypto-powered payments [50]. The award underscores how Ripple’s technology (with XRP at its core) is gaining mainstream recognition in financial circles – a stark change from just a couple years ago when the SEC case cast a long shadow.
On the political front, an unexpected boost came from Donald Trump this week. The former U.S. President – and current 2024 presidential candidate – made waves on Oct. 6 with a speech that referenced plans to “upgrade the ancient U.S. financial system using state-of-the-art crypto technology.” This remark, coming right after Trump reportedly met with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Executive Chair Chris Larsen, lit up the XRP community [51] [52]. A clip of Trump’s speech shared by a notable XRP influencer garnered hundreds of thousands of views within hours [53]. The takeaway for many XRP holders: if a leading U.S. politician (and potential future president) is openly talking about modernizing finance with crypto – and doing so in context of meetings with Ripple – it bodes extremely well for XRP. Speculation erupted that Ripple’s technology or XRP could be poised to play a role in U.S. banking infrastructure, or at least that regulatory attitudes toward crypto are softening at the highest levels. While no official policy or partnership was announced, Trump’s surprisingly crypto-friendly rhetoric injected a jolt of optimism into the market. It suggested that pro-crypto policy momentum might build, potentially increasing institutional interest in XRP as a compliant, useful token [54] [55]. This political signal, combined with Ripple’s legal clarity, paints a picture of a much more hospitable environment for XRP in the U.S. going forward.
Finally, broader regulatory developments in Washington remain a key driver for XRP. Crypto legislation is advancing fitfully – for example, the U.S. House recently passed a comprehensive Market Structure Bill aimed at clarifying crypto rules. When that happened, XRP’s price exploded nearly 15% in a single day, far outpacing Bitcoin’s reaction, which was virtually flat [56]. This stark difference showed that XRP is uniquely sensitive to regulatory news, likely because its value proposition (bridging global finance) depends on regulatory acceptance. As that bill (and others like it) await Senate approval, XRP traders are keeping one eye on Capitol Hill. Encouragingly, there are signs of bipartisanship in crafting crypto-friendly frameworks – e.g. Senator Cory Booker stepping in to work on the Senate’s crypto market structure draft [57]. Any progress on laws that clarify crypto’s status (or give agencies like the CFTC clearer authority) could remove remaining uncertainty and thus be a bullish catalyst for XRP. Similarly, Ripple’s pursuit of a U.S. banking license – a rumor that has intensified after a public comment period on its application ended – is another development to watch [58]. If Ripple gains a bank charter, it would be a landmark integration of crypto with traditional finance, potentially unlocking new uses for XRP in banking. In short, macro optimism, ETF hype, legal victory, and even political buzz have all combined to create a cautiously optimistic narrative for XRP as Q4 kicks off.
Whale Activity, On-Chain Flows, and “Ripple Effects”
While sentiment has been broadly positive, not everything is smooth sailing – large token holders (whales) have been making moves that injected some short-term trepidation. The most talked-about event: a single whale unloaded a massive 160 million XRP in recent days, an unusually large sale that did not go unnoticed [59]. This dump (worth roughly $480 million at current prices) was significant enough to send shockwaves of caution through the market. “It only takes one big move to rattle the market,” a report quipped – and this was exactly that kind of move [60]. Traders immediately began speculating on the whale’s motives: was it just routine profit-taking, or a sign that a major holder is losing faith in XRP’s prospects? [61]. The uncertainty put a damper on what had been building momentum. Several analysts issued yellow flags, noting that such a large sell-off “poured cold water” on XRP’s rally attempts and left traders uneasy [62]. Virtually every short-term XRP price prediction started coming with a dose of skepticism following the whale sale [63] [64]. In technical terms, that sell-off helped reinforce the strong overhead resistance XRP faces in the low-$3 range. Order books absorbed the 160M supply, but it undoubtedly contributed to XRP’s failure (so far) to break out above $3.30.
Blockchain sleuths have been tracking the whale activity closely. According to on-chain data, large holders moved about 160 million XRP in aggregate over the past week or so [65]. Some of these transfers were outright dumps to exchanges. One crypto analyst (Ali Charts) flagged that 160M XRP had been sent to exchanges (“dumped”), warning it “could destabilize the $3 support.” [66]. Another researcher, EGRAG, speculated that whales might be repositioning ahead of a larger market shift, i.e. shuffling tokens in preparation for big news or an ETF decision [67]. A third analyst cautioned that these moves likely do translate into sell-side pressure, at least in the short term [68]. The combined message from these whale watchers: be careful. Even as XRP’s long-term outlook improves, whale distributions can cause interim volatility – big players might be using the recent strength to offload some holdings, which could cap rallies until their selling is absorbed.
Interestingly, not all whale movements have been bearish. In the aftermath of the weekend price dip, it appears some whales (and plenty of retail traders) stepped in to buy the XRP dip. Brave New Coin reports that after XRP’s high-leverage “flush out” on Oct. 5 (when price briefly slipped under $2.95), “strong buying interest from whales and retail traders alike” quickly pushed XRP back above $3 [69]. In other words, for every whale trimming their position, another seems eager to accumulate at slightly lower prices – a sign of resilient demand. On-chain metrics also started flashing subtle green shoots by Oct. 7: Coinglass data showed about $12.77 million in net inflows into XRP wallets that day, marking the first net accumulation reading after a week of steady outflows [70]. Though $12.7M is modest, this reversal from outflows to inflows suggests that buyers are coming back following the whale-induced lull. Historically, periods of sustained inflows at this scale have preceded short-term rallies for XRP [71]. Analysts do caution that the market would need to see much larger daily inflows (>$25M consistently) to signal true conviction from institutions [72]. Still, this pivot to the positive was a welcome sign that the broader XRP holder base is absorbing the selling.
One particular whale alert made headlines on Oct. 6 – though in this case, it wasn’t a sale to an exchange, but rather a transfer into Ripple’s own accounts. Blockchain monitors flagged that exactly 18,744,800 XRP (worth ~$55.9 million) moved from an unknown wallet into one of Ripple’s main corporate wallets early on Oct. 6 [73] [74]. Such a large inbound transfer to Ripple sparked a flurry of speculation: Was Ripple reacquiring XRP for some purpose? Preparing to sell or redistribute it? The transaction was certainly conspicuous, but those familiar with Ripple’s operations noted that this process is actually quite routine. Ripple often consolidates tokens into its treasury wallets (for example, after monthly escrow releases) before redistributing them to various channels – like its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) corridors, institutional custody solutions, or other products in the ecosystem [75]. In other words, the 55M XRP transfer likely represented an internal treasury shuffle or business operation, not a nefarious dump [76]. The timing, however, did raise eyebrows, since it coincided with the price being at a pivotal level. But in the immediate aftermath, the market reaction was muted. XRP’s price barely budged on the news – it continued trading around $2.99 with no major volatility following the transfer [77]. There were a few quick wicks down to ~$2.95 on intraday charts, but those dips were met with equally swift buy-ups back toward $3 [78]. This calm response suggested that savvy traders saw the transfer as business-as-usual for Ripple, rather than a sign that Ripple (the company) was about to dump tokens. In fact, experienced XRP watchers pointed out that as long as those 18.7M XRP stay in Ripple’s coffers (and don’t flow to exchanges), they won’t impact circulating supply or market price [79]. A crypto news outlet noted “the relatively calm market response suggests that experienced traders recognize the XRP transfer as potentially routine corporate activity rather than a signal of imminent selling pressure.” [80] This perspective helped prevent any panic – essentially, the community gave Ripple the benefit of the doubt that it was moving funds for constructive reasons (liquidity provision, new partnerships, etc.).
The net effect of recent whale and on-chain activity is a bit of a mixed bag for XRP. On one hand, whale sell-offs have introduced short-term resistance and caution. On the other, fundamental accumulation and Ripple’s own maneuvers suggest underlying confidence in XRP’s future utility. It’s also worth noting that XRP’s network activity remains strong, especially in regions like Asia. Ripple’s ODL payment volumes in Japan and other corridors have been growing, and major partner SBI Holdings recently expanded an XRP lending program [81]. These developments mean real-world usage of XRP as a bridge currency is rising, which provides a floor of organic demand over time [82] [83]. Some 4+ million holders now own XRP globally [84], and even a few tech firms have hinted at adding XRP to their corporate treasuries [85]. Such sticky, non-speculative demand can help counterbalance speculative whale swings in the long run. Additionally, XRP’s correlation with other assets could produce “ripple effects” in the market: if XRP breaks out, it might lift tokens with similar profiles (for instance, Stellar’s XLM often moves in tandem on big news, given its overlapping use case in payments). Conversely, continued stagnation in XRP could leave the broader “altcoin ETF” trade incomplete – assets like Solana, Cardano, and others are also waiting in the wings for fund approvals and could react sympathetically when XRP’s turn comes. For now, XRP’s price is relatively range-bound, but whale watching and on-chain analytics remain as critical as technical charts for gauging its next move.
Analyst Forecasts and the Road Ahead
With XRP at a crossroads, experts and analysts have been issuing an array of forecasts – some wildly bullish, others more restrained. It’s safe to say the community is buzzing with predictions about where XRP might end 2025, especially in light of the upcoming catalysts. Here’s a roundup of the notable outlooks making news:
- Standard Chartered’s Bold Targets: Perhaps the most headline-grabbing prediction comes from banking giant Standard Chartered. The global bank’s research team suggested that, with regulatory clarity achieved and ETF prospects rising, XRP could breach $5 by December 2025 [86]. They even extended their forecast to $12.50 by 2028 [87], positing that increased adoption in payments and investment could drive a multi-year uptrend. Such institutional forecasts carry weight – and echo the idea that XRP is underpriced relative to its utility if legal barriers truly fall away.
- Crypto Strategists Eye $4–$5 Range (and Beyond): Many crypto-focused analysts are also optimistic, though with nearer-term lenses. For example, chartist Kamran Asghar points to a classic inverse head-and-shoulders on XRP’s chart, which if activated by a break above ~$3.70, could “pave the way for an advance toward the $4.00–$4.20 zone” in the fairly short term [88] [89]. Another trader, going by @Amonbuy, shared a long-term logarithmic chart and observed an ascending triangle pattern stretching back years. He suggested that a confluence of ETF approval and technical breakout could “amplify institutional inflows and send XRP toward $5.89 if momentum sustains.” [90]. Some analysts are even more ambitious – Jake Claver of Digital Ascension Group opined on a podcast that a run to $10–$13 is realistic, with $20–$25 as a bullish stretch target by the end of 2025, assuming a U.S. spot ETF launches and unleashes new capital [91]. These upper-end targets hinge on XRP capturing a wave of mainstream investment and possibly new use cases (like being used by banks or fintech apps at scale). It’s worth noting such big numbers ($10+) would imply XRP approaching or exceeding its all-time high market cap, which isn’t impossible but would require a perfect mix of catalysts.
- Key Levels – $3.30, $3.70, $4.80: In the more immediate term, analysts across the board highlight $3.30 and ~$3.70 as the critical bullish trigger points. $3.30 marks the top of the current consolidation band; clearing it decisively would likely bring a rush of momentum buying [92]. Around $3.70 lies that head-and-shoulders neckline which, if surpassed, “would likely confirm the bullish reversal and signal the start of a sustained uptrend,” potentially targeting $4.80 as a next major level [93] [94]. Essentially, XRP needs to prove itself by making a higher high above its late-summer peak (~$3.30), then taking out the multi-year ceiling (~$3.70) that has repelled it since 2021. Achieving those feats would shift the market structure firmly in favor of bulls and could validate many of the optimistic forecasts.
- Cautious Voices – “Don’t front-run the breakout”: Not everyone is convinced XRP will explode just yet. Seasoned traders urge patience and caution until the charts confirm a move. As one analyst put it, “bullish sentiment dominates social media discussions, but analysts urge caution until… a decisive breakout above the $3.70 neckline.” [95]. In other words, talk is cheap; the market wants proof. The recent decline in trading volume and the presence of whale sell-pressure are cited as reasons to temper excitement in the near term [96] [97]. If the SEC were to delay ETF approvals again (a real possibility given their past behavior) or if macro markets wobble, XRP could easily remain stuck under $3 for weeks. Some forecasters see XRP range-bound between roughly $2.50 and $3.50 absent any major news – essentially chopping around as it has since mid-year. The CoinCentral report noted that “big breakouts feel unlikely unless major catalysts appear,” pegging XRP’s upside as mild in the interim [98] [99]. From a long-term holder’s perspective, this consolidation isn’t necessarily bad – it builds a base – but for traders seeking quick gains, it can be frustrating.
- Risk Factors – Macro and Competition: A few analysts also point out external factors that could cap XRP’s upside. For one, macroeconomic shifts (like a failure to cut rates or a downturn in equities) could reduce risk appetite broadly, dragging on crypto. Additionally, competition in the payments crypto space (from the likes of Stellar or even stablecoins) means XRP cannot rest on its laurels; its value depends on continued adoption. There’s also the lingering float of XRP held by Ripple and early investors – while Ripple has been very measured in selling, any indication of increased distribution can spook the market. All these mean that while the longer-term trajectory for XRP is optimistic, near-term pullbacks and volatility will likely persist.
What’s the bottom line? XRP enters the second week of October 2025 with a mix of high hopes and nagging hesitations. The price charts show a coiled spring; the community is waiting for a trigger. Major news events – such as an ETF approval, a surprise partnership, or regulatory breakthrough – could provide that spark and send XRP bursting through its multi-year highs. Bulls have a laundry list of catalysts in play, from a possible BlackRock iShares XRP Trust filing to Ripple’s banking license to a crypto-friendly Congress [100] [101]. Even SWIFT, the global payments network, is experimenting with blockchain, and any hint of Ripple displacing a piece of that pie could be huge. Yet, until something concrete materializes, XRP remains in “show-me” mode. Traders will be closely monitoring the October 18 SEC decision date, as well as XRP’s price reaction around the $3.00 and $3.30 technical levels. The mood is best described as cautious optimism. As one crypto pundit wrote, “the broader narrative remains constructive. With Ripple’s legal clarity, growing institutional interest, and expanding global partnerships, many traders view XRP as one of the top altcoins to watch in Q4 2025.” [102] The next couple of weeks could very well decide whether that optimism is rewarded with the long-awaited “moon” shot – or whether XRP holders must remain patient through yet another consolidation phase. Either way, XRP’s wild 48 hours of news and moves have set the stage for an eventful finale to the year. The crypto world will be watching closely to see if Ripple’s token can make a big splash, or if this whale-rocked boat stays moored a little longer.
Sources: Key information and quotes were drawn from recent market analyses and news reports on Oct. 6–7, 2025, including FXEmpire [103] [104], CoinEdition [105] [106], Brave New Coin [107] [108], CoinCentral [109] [110], The Coin Republic [111] [112], Watcher.Guru [113] [114], and Coinpedia [115], among others. All developments, price data, and analyst commentary are sourced from this October 6–7 timeframe to ensure a timely and comprehensive XRP news roundup.
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