- Stock Surge: GWAV stock doubled in two days – closing at $8.51 on Oct 13 then spiking to an intraday high of ~$18.50 on Oct 14 [1]. That’s a ~115% jump on a tiny 500K‑share float [2].
- Business: Greenwave is a scrap‐metal recycling operator (13 yards in VA, NC, OH) supplying domestically sourced steel, aluminum, copper and rare‐earth metals to mills and industrial partners [3] [4]. Key contracts include a $2M non‑ferrous scrap deal and municipal contracts (e.g. Virginia Beach) announced late 2024 [5].
- Tariff Tailwinds: CEO Danny Meeks has positioned Greenwave to capitalize on steep U.S. tariffs. In early 2025 the company raised 2025 revenue guidance to $47–$50M after President Trump’s 25% steel/aluminum/copper tariffs [6]. (In June 2025, tariffs were raised to 50% [7].)
- Financials: FY2024 revenue was ~$33.3M with a ~$100.4M net loss [8]. The balance sheet shows minimal current assets relative to debt, and management has warned of cash burn. Insiders say Greenwave had ~$10M cash and $7M inventory as of early 2025 [9].
- Industry Developments: A new Nucor micro‑mill in Lexington, NC (430K tons/yr capacity of near‑100% recycled steel) began ramping in mid‑2025 [10]. Nucor’s CEO Leon Topalian said, “We’re excited about what this mill is going to do… great things to come… as they continue their start‑up into Q3 and Q4” [11]. This is expected to lift regional scrap demand.
- Risks & Compliance: Greenwave’s tiny public float (~570K shares post‑split [12]), high short interest (~14% [13]), heavy losses and late SEC filings (received Nasdaq delinquency notices for Q1 and Q2 2025) make GWAV high‐risk [14] [15]. The company performed a 1-for-110 reverse split on Aug 22, 2025 to regain Nasdaq compliance [16].
Greenwave’s business centers on scrap‑metal recycling. Through its subsidiary Empire, it runs what it calls “the #1 scrap metal chain in Hampton Roads,” located near the world’s largest Naval Base [17]. The company processes ferrous and non‑ferrous scrap for U.S. steelmakers (like Nucor, Cleveland‑Cliffs, Sims) and other industrial users. Its CEO Danny Meeks has emphasized that Greenwave supplies “100% domestically-sourced metals” and sees its facilities as crucial for national infrastructure and security [18] [19].
Tariffs & Tariffs: Crucially, Greenwave has ridden recent trade policy shifts. Early in 2025, the U.S. government announced sweeping 25% tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and copper. Greenwave immediately raised its FY2025 revenue outlook on this news [20]. S&P Global interviewed Greenwave CFO Isaac Dietrich, who confirmed domestic bids jumped “after Trump announced tariffs on all steel imports” [21]. He told S&P, “We saw a significant increase in bids from the major steel manufacturers… There’ll be a significant increase in demand for a finite supply. So, we expect prices to go considerably higher in our markets” [22]. Dietrich added that big mills like Nucor and Sims are already seeking long-term supply agreements: “Both Sims and Nucor are trying to lock us into long-term contracts to derisk from that,” he said [23]. In June 2025 those tariffs were doubled to 50% [24], further bolstering domestic scrap prices and margins.
Industry Catalysts: Beyond policy, regional steel capacity is rising. Nucor’s new rebar micro-mill in Lexington, NC went online in Q3 2025. The Association for Iron & Steel Technology reports Nucor’s plant (430K tpy) “is ramping up production” and Nucor’s CEO believes “great things to come” as it starts up [25]. Greenwave, which already operates five scrap yards in NC (including a powerhouse shredder), stands to be a key supplier to this mill. The company’s press materials have repeatedly cited the Lexington plant as a 2025 growth driver [26] [27].
Recent Stock Rally: All these factors fueled a recent stock surge. On Oct 13, 2025 GWAV closed at $8.51. Pre-market on Oct 14 it spiked ~115% to about $18.30, ultimately closing ~17.65 [28]. That 5 million–share jump on thin float looks like a classic micro-cap squeeze. TechStock² analysts note GWAV is a “tiny-float, high-volatility micro-cap” stock moving on momentum and macro tailwinds [29]. With roughly 570K shares outstanding post-split (of which ~454K float) and ~64K shares short [30], such extreme moves can happen. Market watchers speculate this rally is driven by tariff headlines, expectations for wider metal price spreads, and excitement over industry tailwinds. No new company announcements were filed at the time, suggesting momentum trading was the trigger [31] [32].
Financial Picture & Risks: Despite the hype, Greenwave’s fundamentals are precarious. FY2024 revenue was only $33.3M against $100.4M of net loss [33]. The company has repeatedly split its stock (1-for-110 in Aug 2025) to meet Nasdaq rules [34]. It has also been late on SEC filings (Nasdaq cited them for missing Q1 and Q2 10‑Qs in 2025) [35]. Those filings (and whether any new capital will be needed) are important near-term questions. Management told analysts as of Feb 2025 it had no immediate plans to raise capital, with about $10M cash on hand [36]. But heavy losses continue — FY2024 operating cash burn was ~$17M — and further financing may be required.
Expert Outlook: Industry executives are cautiously optimistic. Dietrich noted Greenwave had already spent tens of millions expanding its scrap-processing capacity and acquiring property in anticipation of this moment [37]. “We also invested about $30 million in our equipment… We purchased the land underlying our facilities… seven facilities for approximately $15 million,” he said [38]. That suggests commitment to growth. Meanwhile, Nucor’s leadership sees the scrap surge as real: Topalian’s excitement for the Lexington mill’s “start-up” (Oct 2025) implies plenty of future scrap demand.
Looking Ahead: GWAV’s rally underscores two trends: U.S. steel-makers “locking in” domestic scrap supply, and scarcity‑driven price gains. As Dietrich warned, scrap prices have already climbed and “are going to keep going higher” on constrained supply [39]. If tariffs stay in place (and even expand, as Europe hints of 50% steel tariffs) [40], Greenwave could see sustained demand. However, the stock’s blistering run also raises caution flags. Analysts on TS2 note the company’s small float and large structural challenges mean this could be a “breakout story—or a bull trap” [41]. Investors will be watching the delayed 10-Q filings, any capital raises, and the company’s next earnings (expected Q3 2025) for signs of execution.
Sources: Company press releases and SEC filings; TechStock² analysis [42] [43]; S&P Global Commodity Insights interview with Greenwave CFO [44] [45]; Nucor press/AIST news [46]; and market data [47] [48].
References
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