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Sirius XM Stock Shocks Wall Street: Buffett’s Big Bet, Liberty Merger Fallout & 2025 Streaming Showdown
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Sirius XM Stock Shocks Wall Street: Buffett’s Big Bet, Liberty Merger Fallout & 2025 Streaming Showdown

by
20 October 2025
  • Sirius XM Stock Steady Today: Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) traded around $21.3 per share on October 20, 2025, roughly flat in early trading. The stock has seesawed recently – falling about 8% over the past two weeks before finding support and ticking up modestly late last week [1].
  • Berkshire’s Surprise Stake: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway now owns ~37% of Sirius XM’s shares, making it a top stakeholder [2]. This huge position stems from a 2024 Liberty Media merger/spin-off that consolidated shares, yet it represents only ~1% of Berkshire’s portfolio – a big bet on Sirius XM for Buffett, but a tiny slice of Berkshire’s empire [3] [4].
  • Liberty Merger Reshapes Company: In late 2024, Sirius XM merged with Liberty Media’s tracking stock to form “New SiriusXM,” simplifying its ownership structure with a single share class [5]. Liberty distributed its Sirius stake, leaving no controlling shareholder – a move aimed at boosting liquidity and index inclusion [6]. Billionaires like Buffett and others (Israel Englander, Steve Cohen) piled into the “New Sirius,” drawn by the restructuring and a 1-for-<em>x</em> reverse stock split effect, though analysts note these bets were more about arbitrage and structure than sudden faith in fundamentals [7].
  • Q3 Earnings on Deck: Sirius XM will report Q3 2025 results on October 30, 2025, and expectations are high. Analysts forecast EPS of $0.79 (a nearly 3× jump year-on-year) on revenue of about $2.14 billion (slightly down ~1% YoY) [8]. For full-year 2025, consensus sees $2.71 EPS (+52% YoY) on $8.52 billion revenue (–2% YoY) [9] – indicating flat top-line performance but improved profitability.
  • Mixed Financial Signals: Last quarter (Q2 2025) Sirius XM reported $2.14 billion in revenue and net income of $205 million, which was down 32.5% from a year ago [10]. Subscriber numbers are essentially flat to slightly declining (~33–34 million self-pay subs), and first-half revenues were flat [11]. However, free cash flow surged ~27% in Q2 amid cost cuts, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance, highlighting Sirius XM’s strong cash generation [12] [13]. The company even hiked its dividend – now paying $0.27 quarterly (about a 5% annual yield at current prices) – rewarding shareholders despite slow growth [14].
  • Analysts Split on Outlook: Wall Street’s view on SIRI is divided. Rosenblatt Securities recently raised its price target to $23 (Neutral rating), citing improving free cash flow as Sirius enters a satellite upgrade phase [15]. By contrast, BofA trimmed its target to $20 on a cautious outlook [16]. The average 1-year target sits in the mid-$23s [17] – only ~10% above current levels – but targets range from lows around $18 to highs near $30 (with one outlier as high as $37) [18]. The stock’s valuation is modest at about 7–8× forward earnings, a steep discount to media peers [19], reflecting both its high cash flows and low growth prospects.
  • Streaming Wars Pressure Sirius XM: The broader audio market is shifting toward streaming, posing a major challenge. Sirius XM’s subscriber count has inched down ~1–2% annually in recent years [20], as more drivers opt for Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music and podcasts delivered via smartphones. “Ongoing subscriber losses in a market favoring on-demand streaming” remain a key risk, [21] analysts warn. To fight back, Sirius XM has leaned on its strengths – exclusive live content (Howard Stern, NFL games, etc.) and ubiquitous factory-installed car receivers (in ~60% of new cars) – while also launching new products like SiriusXM Play, a low-cost ad-supported plan ( <$7/month) aimed at price-sensitive listeners [22]. The company even tested a free ad-supported tier in certain connected cars [23] to broaden reach. These moves are designed to entice younger and cost-conscious customers who might otherwise stick to free streaming options.
  • Buffett’s Endorsement vs. Fundamental Doubts: Warren Buffett’s involvement has shone a spotlight on Sirius XM, sparking hopes that this “dirt-cheap” stock could be a hidden gem [24]. Berkshire’s stake jump above 37% in Q3 suggests savvy investors see value – or at least a clever post-merger arbitrage opportunity. However, not all experts are convinced it’s a long-term winner. The Motley Fool recently noted Sirius XM’s shares are down over 60% in five years, arguing that fierce streaming competition and stagnant user growth may limit its upside. StockStory’s analysts outright panned SIRI, citing declining core subscribers, falling EPS (–37% annually over 5 years) and diminishing ROI – concluding that while the stock’s 6–7× P/E looks cheap, “the potential downside is huge” given its shaky fundamentals [25]. In short, Sirius XM’s high dividend and cash flow make it a potential value play, but its growth narrative is unconvincing to skeptics.
  • Bull vs. Bear Scenarios: In a bullish scenario, Sirius XM could benefit from its under-the-radar value – trading at a deep discount to peers and throwing off significant free cash. If management can stabilize subscribers (with new ad-supported offerings) and continue boosting cash flow, some see the stock rebounding into the high-$20s. Ultra-optimistic forecasts even peg fair value above $30 (Simply Wall St’s community models average ~$23.64, but range up to ~$67 in best cases) [26] [27]. Bears, however, argue that without real growth catalysts, Sirius XM might languish or decline. They point out that revenue is actually shrinking (~–2% expected this year) and any EPS gains are largely from cost cuts and share consolidation. If churn accelerates – e.g. as connected cars let Spotify and podcasts seamlessly invade the dashboard – Sirius XM’s user base and pricing power could erode, potentially dragging the stock below $20. Indeed, some analysts’ low-end targets in the high teens reflect this bear case of a slow fade [28].
  • Competitive Landscape & Market Trends: Looking beyond Sirius XM, the audio entertainment market is highly dynamic. Traditional radio is in secular decline, and streaming audio is ascendant, but Sirius XM occupies a unique niche in between. It still reaches about 150 million listeners monthly across its platforms (including Pandora streaming and podcasts) [29], giving it a huge audience to monetize. The question is whether it can adapt fast enough. Spotify boasts over 550 million users globally and is investing heavily in podcasts and personalization. Apple and Amazon bundle music streaming into their ecosystems. By contrast, Sirius XM’s differentiator is curated, live programming – from superstar DJs and talk personalities to live sports – often in the captive environment of a car. As cars get 5G and dashboards become smartphone extensions, Sirius XM is racing to remain indispensable. Its latest satellites (SXM-8, -9, -10 launched via SpaceX) ensure robust broadcast coverage [30], but the real battle is on the ground: keeping drivers tuned in when Internet options abound. The company’s strategy involves a hybrid of satellite and online streaming (the SiriusXM app and 360L hybrid radios) to offer on-demand content alongside live channels [31] [32]. Industry-wide, audio advertising is rebounding post-pandemic and Sirius XM aims to capture more of it with its new ad-supported tiers. Meanwhile, the overall U.S. new car market – critical for Sirius XM (many subs come from new car trial conversions) – has been resilient, though a shift toward electric vehicles and tech-heavy infotainment could be a double-edged sword (some EVs lack AM radio but all have bluetooth/CarPlay, etc.).

Bottom Line: Sirius XM Holdings stands at a crossroads in late 2025. The stock is cheap by the numbers (single-digit P/E, hefty dividend) [33] [34] and now free from Liberty’s tangle, it’s attracting big-name investors who see value. Upcoming earnings and guidance will be crucial in determining if Sirius XM can deliver growth or if it remains a cash cow in slow decline. With a 37% Buffett endorsement on one hand and Spotify-led disruption on the other, Sirius XM has become a fascinating battleground. Investors should watch subscriber trends, new product uptake, and management’s strategic pivots in the streaming era. Will 2025 mark a turnaround for this satellite radio pioneer, or just the calm before continued decline? For now, the stock’s fate balances between its rich cash flows and loyal niche – and the harsh reality of today’s on-demand audio world.

Sources: [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47]

How to get SiriusXM Radio in your car for FREE…
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. stockinvest.us, 2. www.sharewise.com, 3. ts2.tech, 4. www.sharewise.com, 5. ts2.tech, 6. investor.siriusxm.com, 7. ts2.tech, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. ts2.tech, 11. ts2.tech, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. stockinvest.us, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.sahmcapital.com, 18. www.zacks.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. stockstory.org, 21. www.sahmcapital.com, 22. www.sahmcapital.com, 23. ts2.tech, 24. ts2.tech, 25. stockstory.org, 26. www.sahmcapital.com, 27. www.sahmcapital.com, 28. www.zacks.com, 29. investor.siriusxm.com, 30. ts2.tech, 31. www.prnewswire.com, 32. www.prnewswire.com, 33. www.nasdaq.com, 34. stockinvest.us, 35. stockinvest.us, 36. ts2.tech, 37. investor.siriusxm.com, 38. www.sharewise.com, 39. ts2.tech, 40. www.nasdaq.com, 41. www.nasdaq.com, 42. www.tipranks.com, 43. stockstory.org, 44. www.sahmcapital.com, 45. www.sahmcapital.com, 46. stockstory.org, 47. www.sahmcapital.com

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Marcin Frąckiewicz Latest posts

CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

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