- CEO’s innovation push: Brian Niccol says Starbucks will be a “learning” and “experimental” company. On a recent Yahoo Finance podcast from Salesforce’s Dreamforce event, he teased new offerings – artisanal pastries, protein-packed breakfast beverages and even voice-command ordering in the Starbucks app [1]. In short, expect fancier bakery items and nutrition-oriented drinks, plus a revamped mobile app, as part of the turnaround playbook.
- AI “barista assistant”: Starbucks is piloting Green Dot Assist, a generative-AI virtual helper for employees [2] [3]. Running on iPads (via Microsoft Azure), Green Dot can answer barista questions – from ingredient lookups to equipment troubleshooting – and even guide shift scheduling in real time [4] [5]. It’s described as a “kind of barista assistant” that helps staff solve problems quickly [6], freeing them to focus on customers. (Niccol also hinted that someday the app itself could use AI to predict customers’ favorite orders [7].)
- Store and cost cuts: Niccol’s $1 billion “Back to Starbucks” turnaround plan is already in motion. About 1% of underperforming U.S./Canada stores are being shuttered and ~900 corporate/support jobs cut this year [8]. These steps (“trimming fat,” as Niccol put it) are meant to fund reinvestment in the customer experience. In fact, TS2 reports that Starbucks raised staffing at select stores and plans to add thousands more baristas – roughly 1,500–2,000 by May and ~3,000 by year-end [9] – to speed service and improve service.
- Store remodels & menu overhaul: Over 1,000 locations will get refreshed “warmer” interiors and redesigned layouts [10]. The food and drink menu is being simplified (about 30% fewer items) [11], and new beverages are rolling out – including a protein-infused cold foam drink and a revamped “1971” dark roast [12]. (Starbucks also inked a major sponsorship as the Official Coffee Partner of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, boosting its global brand presence [13].)
- Stock & analyst outlook: Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) trades in the mid-$80s per share, roughly 10% below its level a year ago [14]. Wall Street remains cautiously bullish. About two-thirds of analysts rate SBUX a Buy, with a consensus price target near ~$100–104 [15] [16] – implying ~20–25% upside from recent levels. For example, TS2 notes a “Moderate Buy” consensus (13 Buy, 6 Hold) with an average target ~$101.44 [17]. Analysts expect earnings to bounce back (TipRanks projects ~+23% EPS growth in FY2026) once the turnaround takes hold [18]. Notably, Starbucks shares rose about 1.5% intraday on Oct. 14 as investors digested news of accelerated menu and tech initiatives [19].
Turning around the core business: Niccol (a former Chipotle turnaround star) openly acknowledges Starbucks’ struggles. In Q3 2025, the chain’s U.S. same-store sales fell again (about –2%, marking the sixth straight quarterly drop) [20], and profits slumped. Confronting this, he’s doubled down on the customer experience. For example, he’s boosted labor at peak times and introduced a “Green Apron” service model (more baristas on shift and personal touches like handwritten cup notes) [21]. In other words, rather than relying on automation to save costs, Niccol is adding people and new tools to make stores more welcoming. As he put it this spring: “We’re banking on some growth to come with the investment in the labor and the store experience.” [22]
AI meets in-store service: Starbucks’ tech strategy emphasizes supporting – not replacing – human baristas. The Green Dot Assist pilot (currently in ~35 stores [23]) exemplifies this: employees can ask Green Dot, “How do I fix this espresso machine?” or “What’s in a cold brew,” and get instant answers [24]. Deb Hall Lefevre, Starbucks CTO, explains that staff can simply talk to Green Dot via an iPad app during a shift, whether to check ingredient lists or handle a last-minute call-out. By FY2026 the company plans to roll Green Dot out across most US/Canada locations [25]. Meanwhile, Niccol remains cautious on replacing people with robots – he recently paused the broad rollout of a drink-automation system (“Siren”) to only the busiest drive-through stores [26], and is instead doubling down on baristas and simple tech fixes.
Analyst and expert views: Industry experts see both promise and challenges. UBS analyst Dennis Geiger (Hold, $95 target) notes that “persistent sluggish sales trends” and higher costs make investors wary, though he expects sales could finally inflect upward by Q4 FY2025 [27]. By contrast, RBC’s Logan Reich (Buy, $100 target) remains upbeat about Niccol’s strategy, viewing Starbucks as one of the most-debated names in retail due to these bold moves [28]. TipRanks’ own AI-driven model assigns SBUX an Outperform rating with a $105 target (≈11% upside), citing the company’s robust revenues and efficiency initiatives [29]. Even CNBC’s Jim Cramer has praised Niccol, saying he “has his arms around what’s been going wrong” at Starbucks.
Looking ahead: The clock is ticking on Niccol’s plan. If faster service, new products and tech assistants can lure back customers, analysts say the stock could rebound toward that $100+ zone. However, consumers remain price-sensitive: premium lattes ($5+) were a drag on traffic during a prolonged period of higher prices. (Notably, coffee prices themselves have spiked ~21% in 2025 due to tariffs [30], raising the cost of ingredients — a risk highlighted in Capitol Hill debates.) In this mixed environment, Starbucks aims to rekindle its famous “third place” appeal. The company’s loyalty program still boasts 34 million members [31], suggesting a strong core following. The next few quarters will reveal whether Niccol’s blend of nostalgia, innovation and technology can drive growth. For now, analysts caution that “Starbucks has a lot to prove,” but many remain hopeful that these ambitious changes will eventually perk up both sales and the stock price [32] [33].
Sources: News reports and analyses from Starbucks, Reuters, TipRanks, TS2.Tech, Restaurant Dive and related media [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39].
References
1. www.tipranks.com, 2. www.restaurantdive.com, 3. www.coffeefranchisehub.com, 4. www.restaurantdive.com, 5. www.coffeefranchisehub.com, 6. www.coffeefranchisehub.com, 7. www.coffeefranchisehub.com, 8. ts2.tech, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. ts2.tech, 11. ts2.tech, 12. ts2.tech, 13. ts2.tech, 14. ts2.tech, 15. ts2.tech, 16. ts2.tech, 17. ts2.tech, 18. ts2.tech, 19. ts2.tech, 20. ts2.tech, 21. ts2.tech, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.restaurantdive.com, 24. www.restaurantdive.com, 25. www.restaurantdive.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.tipranks.com, 30. ts2.tech, 31. ts2.tech, 32. ts2.tech, 33. ts2.tech, 34. www.tipranks.com, 35. ts2.tech, 36. www.restaurantdive.com, 37. ts2.tech, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.tipranks.com
