- SPAC Merger Vote Imminent: HCM II (NASDAQ: HOND) shareholders will vote Oct. 20, 2025 on a merger with Terrestrial Energy – a Canadian-US nuclear startup. ts2.tech businesswire.com. If approved, the combined company will list on NASDAQ as “IMSR” (common) and “IMSRW” (warrants) ts2.tech, raising about $280 million at a pro forma equity value near $1.3 billion ts2.tech 1 .
- Stock Surge: Anticipation of the vote sent HOND shares from the high teens to roughly $25 by mid-October ts2.tech. By Oct. 15, the stock traded near $24.98 ts2.tech (close to a 52-week high) on heavy volume, as traders positioned ahead of the merger vote ts2.tech ts2.tech. If the deal closes, HOND holders become shareholders of Terrestrial’s business (ticker IMSR) ts2.tech 2 .
- Advanced Reactor Tech Approved: Terrestrial’s IMSR (Integral Molten Salt Reactor) – a Gen-IV small modular reactor design – just won a major regulatory milestone. The U.S. NRC completed a safety review on Sept. 10, approving Terrestrial’s use of a temperature-based “inherent” control mechanism. It was “the first of its kind… for a molten fuel salt reactor designed for commercial use” globenewswire.com. CEO Simon Irish called the approval “a key milestone” that confirms the IMSR’s inherent safety features 3 .
- DOE Endorsement: The U.S. Department of Energy also tapped Terrestrial for its Advanced Fuel Pilot program. In late Sept. 2025 DOE announced selections of Oklo, Terrestrial Energy, TRISO-X, and Valar for advanced nuclear fuel line projects energy.gov. Terrestrial’s project will develop a fuel salt fabrication process, reinforcing confidence in its supply chain strategy ts2.tech 4 .
- Industry Momentum & Peers: Investors note that Oklo (another SMR developer) just broke ground on its 75 MW Aurora fast reactor at Idaho National Lab ans.org, and like Terrestrial was chosen in DOE’s fuel program energy.gov. Meanwhile, tech giants are increasingly backing SMRs – for example, Amazon has disclosed plans to build 12 X-energy SMRs for data centers in Washington state world-nuclear-news.org. This broader trend underpins interest in next-gen nuclear.
- Analyst Sentiment Mixed: Many analysts see upside if the vote clears. Seeking Alpha columnist Sarfatti initiated coverage with a Buy, noting Terrestrial “stands out” among SMR companies thanks to recent regulatory wins and strong leadership ts2.tech. Major funds are also taking positions: JPMorgan added over $550K of HOND in Q2, and hedge funds boosted their stakes ts2.tech. By contrast, Weiss Ratings still pegs HOND as a “Sell” ts2.tech, and SPAC skeptics remind investors that if the deal fails, HOND would collapse back toward its $10 trust value.
- Technical Indicators: Chart analysts point out that HOND is now well above its 50-day moving average (~$13.6) ts2.tech ts2.tech, with most momentum gauges in bullish territory. Financhill reports that short-term moving averages (8-day, 20-day) remain buy signals ts2.tech. In plain terms, the stock’s uptrend has been strong, suggesting room to run if approval occurs. However, rapid run-ups often see pullbacks: HOND is near a 52-week high and overbought on RSI ts2.tech, so traders warn profits could be taken once the vote is decided.
Terrestrial Energy is a Generation-IV nuclear developer known for its IMSR technology ts2.tech businesswire.com. The IMSR is a modular molten-salt reactor that uses low-enriched uranium; it is inherently safe thanks to its fuel salt and temperature control design ts2.tech globenewswire.com. Terrestrial has been building regulatory momentum: besides the recent NRC ruling, Canada’s regulator completed a positive Vendor Design Review in 2023, finding “no fundamental barriers to licensing” the IMSR for commercial use globenewswire.com. The company plans to build first IMSR plants in the early 2030s and markets them not only for electricity but also high-temperature industrial heat (data centers, chemical plants, etc.) businesswire.com 5 .
HCM II’s management emphasizes this vision. CEO Simon Irish says the S-4 clearance is a “key transaction milestone” and touts the IMSR as a “transformative” solution to energy demand, noting its safe, low-cost, carbon-free power businesswire.com. HCM II’s Shawn Matthews similarly called the IMSR “a transformative solution for the world’s growing industrial energy needs, delivering safe, reliable and cost-effective power” businesswire.com. Terrestrial is positioned to capitalize on growing demand: it claims a “capex-light” model and highlights DOE programs that could ensure fuel availability energy.gov 6 .
On the market side, HOND’s soaring price has moved its implied enterprise value toward $1.3 billion ts2.tech. If HOND closes at ~$26 (as some reports indicated on Oct. 17), Terrestrial would trade near a $3.5 billion equity valuation at that price. However, analysts caution this is speculative: Terrestrial has no revenue yet and won’t have any commercial sales or profits likely until the 2030s seekingalpha.com. Even so, many see the deal as a way for retail investors to get early exposure to advanced nuclear technology.
Forecast & Takeaway: In the days ahead, the key events are the Oct. 20 shareholder vote and any new guidance. A smooth approval is widely expected and would likely send HOND/IMSR shares higher, potentially reaching the low-$30s if momentum continues (some technical analysts project targets around $28–$30). If the deal falters (unlikely at this stage), the stock would retrace sharply toward its $10 redemption price. Longer-term, Terrestrial’s success will depend on deploying its IMSR plants and capturing market share in decarbonization. For now, industry veterans like former NRC Commissioner Jeffrey Merrifield say Terrestrial’s regulatory victories “sets a precedent for others in the field” globenewswire.com, signaling confidence in molten salt reactors. But as analysts note, advanced nuclear remains a high-risk, high-reward sector – one poised for a boom if projects keep meeting milestones, but still uncertain given capital and licensing challenges.
Sources: Latest filings and press releases businesswire.com businesswire.com; industry news globenewswire.com energy.gov; market data from TechStock² and MarketBeat ts2.tech ts2.tech; expert commentary on SMRs globenewswire.com 7 .
