- Stock Price: BBAI closed around $7.05 on Oct. 24, 2025 (up ~4% that day) and traded near $7.11 in after-hours Oct. 25 [1]. The stock is up roughly 80–100% year-to-date [2], vastly outpacing major tech indices.
- Volatility & Volume: The stock surged 22% on Oct. 13 after announcing a battlefield AI partnership (see below) [3]. Such moves have become routine: BBAI sees 10%+ daily swings with trading volumes spiking on news (e.g. ~293 million shares on Oct. 24) [4] [5].
- Major Deals: On Oct. 13, BigBear.ai partnered with Tsecond to bundle its ConductorOS AI software with Tsecond’s rugged BRYCK hardware for military “edge AI” applications [6] [7]. On Oct. 23, it deployed its veriScan biometric identity platform at Chicago O’Hare (supporting CBP’s Enhanced Passenger Processing) [8] [9]. (Earlier this year it rolled out the same EPP system at Nashville Airport [10].) Other contracts include U.S. Navy maritime AI exercises and global security partnerships.
- Q2 Results & Guidance: Q2 2025 revenue was $32.5M (down 18% YoY) [11], with a net loss of $228.6M (mostly non-cash charges) [12]. Management cut full-year 2025 revenue outlook to $125–$140M [13] amid Army program delays.
- Balance Sheet: BigBear.ai ended Q2 with a record $390.8M in cash [14] and about $380M in contract backlog, giving it a runway to invest and absorb short-term losses. CFO Sean Ricker highlighted the “record cash balance” as enabling major growth investments [15].
- Analyst Sentiment: Wall Street is divided. MarketBeat reports a consensus “Hold” rating (2 Buys, 2 Holds, 1 Sell) with an average 12-month target of ~$6.00 [16]. TipRanks shows a median target around $5.83 (implying ~15% downside). By contrast, H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy on BBAI with an $8 target [17] [18].
- Defense AI Hype: Some analysts dub BBAI a “mini-Palantir” because of its military focus [19]. Online forums note the stock’s massive 2025 gains (roughly +80%) on defense-AI optimism [20], but caution that profitability lags (deep losses and guide cuts).
Stock Rally and Volatility Insights
BigBear.ai (BBAI) shares have been on a tear in 2025, fueled by defense-AI contracts and broader AI enthusiasm. The stock began the year as a sub-$4 penny stock and roughly doubled to ~$8–9 by mid-October [21]. A major catalyst was the Tsecond partnership announcement on Oct. 13, which sent BBAI up ~22% in one day [22]. At that peak the stock briefly touched $9.39 before profit-taking set in [23]. By Oct. 22 it had pulled back into the mid-$7 range, marking a ~20% retracement from its recent high [24].
Traders note BigBear.ai is extremely volatile. Multiple sessions in late Oct saw 9–10% price swings [25]. Technical indicators are mixed: some trend-followers see a short-term uptrend (volume confirmed an Oct 22 “pivot bottom”) [26], but others point out that momentum (RSI) is now extended. In plain terms, the stock is a high-risk, high-reward play – dramatic jumps on news, sharp reversals on uncertainty [27]. As of Oct. 26, BBAI is trading around $7.1, well off its highs, reflecting both profit-taking and the market’s cautious stance.
AI and Defense Partnerships Drive Momentum
BigBear.ai’s rally is rooted in a string of national security contracts. The headline came Oct. 13 when BigBear.ai and Silicon Valley startup Tsecond announced an AI edge-computing solution for the battlefield [28]. By combining BigBear’s ConductorOS software with Tsecond’s rugged BRYCK hardware, U.S. troops can now run AI analytics on sensor data in seconds, even without cloud connectivity [29] [30]. CEO Kevin McAleenan summarized it: “Edge AI must be fast, secure, and simple to deploy under pressure,” enabling soldiers to detect threats in real time [31] [32]. Investors cheered, seeing this as validation of BigBear’s defense AI niche.
Just ten days later (Oct. 23), BigBear.ai announced deployment of its veriScan™ biometric ID platform at Chicago O’Hare International Airport [33]. In partnership with U.S. Customs and the Chicago Aviation Dept., the system replaces manual passport checks with AI-powered face scans, cutting processing time from ~60 seconds to about 10 seconds per traveler [34] [35]. This reinforces BigBear’s role in homeland security. (Earlier this month it rolled out the same Enhanced Passenger Processing system at Nashville Airport [36].)
Beyond these, BigBear.ai has been active in other defense and infrastructure programs. In September it teamed with SMX to provide AI-driven maritime surveillance for the U.S. Navy’s UNITAS 2025 exercise [37], and it inked partnerships to combat narcotics and trafficking at sea. The Washington Commanders (NFL) deal in August – giving BigBear naming rights to the team’s training facility [38] – reflects its growth strategy beyond pure defense. Together, these contracts have kept BigBear in the headlines and undergirded the stock’s recent strength.
Financial Performance and Outlook
Despite the hype, BigBear.ai’s core business still faces challenges. In its Q2 2025 earnings (released Aug 11, 2025), the company reported $32.5 million in revenue, down 18% from $39.8M in Q2 2024 [39]. The shortfall was largely blamed on delayed Army programs. More striking was the net loss of $228.6M in Q2 (versus $14.4M loss a year prior) [40]. The big loss stemmed mostly from non-cash items (warrant and goodwill write-downs), but it underscores how far BigBear is from profitability.
Management responded by trimming guidance. The full-year 2025 revenue forecast was cut to $125–140 million (from ~$155M earlier) [41]. The firm offered little on profits (“pulled profit outlook entirely”), signaling investors will have to wait for growth. On the bright side, the balance sheet is rock-solid. BigBear ended June 2025 with a record $390.8M in cash and equivalents [42] – fueled by recent stock raises – and roughly $380M of contract backlog. CFO Sean Ricker stressed that this cash “will enable us to make significant investments” across products and acquisitions [43]. In short, BigBear is burning cash now, but it has the war chest to fund R&D and the deployment of its AI platforms until revenues catch up.
Analyst Commentary and Stock Outlook
Wall Street’s verdict is cautious. As of late October 2025, five tracked analysts split their rating: 2 Buys, 2 Holds and 1 Sell, yielding a consensus “Hold” [44]. The average 12-month price target of ~$6.00 implies about 15% downside from current levels [45]. That aligns with TipRanks’ view (median target ~$5.83). Among firm forecasts, H.C. Wainwright stands out as bullish – it reiterated a Buy on BBAI and raised its target to $8 [46] [47], citing BigBear’s strong cash position and Pentagon AI budgets.
Other analysts warn that much of the good news is already priced in. A Simply Wall St model pegs BBAI’s fair value near $5.83 [48] (about 20% below the current price), pointing to its rich ~13× forward sales multiple. Likewise, market commentators note that after such a parabolic run, stocks like BBAI tend to see wild swings around earnings: “highly volatile” trading lies ahead when Q3 results drop Nov. 10 [49]. Indeed, one TS2 analysis cautions that if BigBear’s new contracts don’t quickly translate into revenue growth, the stock could give back a lot of recent gains [50].
Investor buzz on social media reflects this split view. Traders celebrate BigBear’s “mini-Palantir” label and defense strategy [51], but some forum chatter also highlights the lowered guide and ongoing losses. Options data hinted at speculation too: call trading spiked before these announcements, suggesting some investors were betting on further upside. Ultimately, analysts say the near-term outlook hinges on execution: Can BigBear.ai convert its $380M backlog into sustained sales growth? If yes, the rally may continue; if no, expect volatility.
Sources: Recent businesswire press releases and filings [52] [53] [54] [55]; financial news & analysis from TechStock²/ts2.tech [56] [57] [58]; Yahoo Finance and market data [59]; investor commentary [60]. Each data point and quote is cited accordingly. (BigBear.ai stock data as of Oct 26, 2025.)
References
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