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BigBear.ai Stock Skyrockets 22% on Defense AI Deal – Is It the Next Palantir?
28 October 2025
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BigBear.ai Stock Skyrockets 22% on Defense AI Deal – Is It the Next Palantir?

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  • Stock and Performance: BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) closed around $7.10 on Oct. 27, 2025 [1]. The stock has climbed roughly 80–100% year-to-date (up over 300% in the past 12 months) [2], making it one of the hottest small-cap AI names.
  • Recent Catalyst: On Oct. 13, BigBear.ai partnered with Tsecond, Inc. to combine its ConductorOS AI software with Tsecond’s rugged BRYCK hardware for military edge computing. This deal sent BBAI up about 22% in one day [3] [4], briefly touching multi-year highs near $9.39.
  • Major Partnerships: Beyond Tsecond, BigBear.ai has landed other key defense and security projects. On Oct. 23 it deployed its veriScan™ facial-recognition system at Chicago O’Hare airport to speed U.S. Customs processing [5]. In September it teamed with SMX for AI-driven maritime surveillance in the U.S. Navy’s UNITAS exercise [6] [7]. These wins reinforce BigBear’s role supplying AI tech to government and defense customers.
  • Financial Snapshot: BigBear.ai’s latest reported quarter (Q2 2025) showed revenue of about $32.5 million, down ~18% from a year ago, largely due to slower project rollouts. A one-time write-off drove a $228.6 million net loss for Q2 [8]. Management cut full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $125–$140 million and withdrew profit targets amid delays. On the plus side, the company ended Q2 with roughly $390 million cash and a $380 million contract backlog, suggesting future revenue potential [9].
  • Analyst Outlook: Wall Street is mixed on BBAI. Only three analysts cover the stock (two Buys, one Hold), giving it a “Moderate Buy” consensus [10]. The average 12-month price target is around $6.00, below current levels [11]. H.C. Wainwright raised its target to $8 in mid-October (calling BigBear’s balance sheet strong and defense budgets large), advising investors to “consider accumulating” on dips [12]. Other models peg fair value near $5.80–$6.00 [13]. As one Wall Street blogger notes, some see the stock as “overvalued” at roughly 13× projected 2025 sales [14].
  • Looking Ahead: Investors will watch BigBear.ai’s upcoming Q3 earnings on Nov. 10, 2025 [15]. That report will be a key test of whether these new contracts and partnerships are turning into revenue. Until then, sentiment remains high but cautious, given the stock’s history of wild swings on each news update [16] [17].

BigBear.ai Holdings is a small-cap “defense tech” stock that has caught retail investors’ eye in 2025. Its core business is AI-driven analytics and decision support for defense, security, and critical infrastructure. The company’s CEO, Kevin McAleenan (former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary), has been aggressively pursuing military and government contracts. Recent headlines have delivered a double dose of optimism: a new battlefield AI partnership and a border-security deployment, both of which helped send the stock sharply higher.

On Oct. 13, BigBear.ai announced a strategic alliance with Tsecond, Inc., a Silicon Valley defense hardware maker. The two will merge BigBear’s ConductorOS AI orchestration software with Tsecond’s “BRYCK” rugged compute platform, so that U.S. forces can run advanced AI models in the field without cloud connectivity. As CEO McAleenan put it, “Edge AI must be fast, secure, and simple to deploy under pressure,” enabling troops to process data “within seconds [and] detect threats sooner” even offline [18]. The market reacted enthusiastically: BBAI stock jumped about 22% on the news [19] [20], and briefly traded near $9.39 on Oct. 14.

Another recent win came on Oct. 23, when BigBear.ai’s veriScan facial-recognition system went live at Chicago O’Hare International Airport. The system is used in U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s Enhanced Passenger Processing program. According to McAleenan, this technology helps ensure identity verification at O’Hare “remains both frictionless and fortified,” cutting processing times from about a minute to just 10 seconds per traveler [21]. While this is a civilian application (travel security), it underscores BigBear’s expertise in mission-critical AI systems.

In September, the company also announced a partnership with SMX (a maritime security firm) to provide AI tools for the U.S. Navy’s UNITAS 2025 exercise [22] [23]. That project, along with the O’Hare deployment, signals BigBear.ai is branching out beyond traditional defense into homeland security and border patrol uses. The string of deals has rekindled comparisons to Palantir (PLTR) – another AI/data firm with defense ties – and some analysts call BigBear a “mini-Palantir” given its scale and focus [24].

Stock Performance: The news flow has come amid a wild stock ride. After trading under $3 in early 2024, BBAI started 2025 with a steep run, doubling by mid-February. It then sold off with the market, but another rally took off in October. For example, on Oct. 13 (Tsecond news day), BBAI gained ~22% [25]. As of late October the stock sits in the mid-$7 range, roughly double its January level. Notably, BigBear.ai shares are highly volatile; they often move 10% or more in a single session on news [26] [27]. Many retail and AI-focused investors have piled in, partly on the def­ense-tech narrative and the stock’s big price swings. But some experts warn this excitement may be overshooting the fundamentals.

Financial and Forecast Outlook: On the numbers side, BigBear.ai still faces challenges. In Q2 2025, revenue fell to about $32.5 million (down ~18% year-over-year), and the company reported a large loss after accounting charges [28]. The bright spots are a hefty cash war chest (~$390M) and the $380M backlog, which management says should convert to future revenue [29]. Analyst forecasts remain cautious. TipRanks reports a consensus “Hold” rating with an average 12-month target of $5.83 [30] (implying downside), while H.C. Wainwright is one of the few bulls, raising its target to $8 on defense spending themes [31]. Another model (Simply Wall St) pegs fair value near $5.80, suggesting the stock is ~20% overvalued at recent prices [32].

In technical terms, BigBear.ai’s indicators are mixed. The 14-day RSI hovers near neutral (around 50), and its moving averages give a “neutral” outlook [33]. Short-term momentum may have cooled after October’s rally. However, if the company’s new projects start delivering revenue, those bullish catalysts could reignite buying.

Investor Sentiment: Retail buzz and “AI mania” factors have certainly played a role in BBAI’s run-up. Some forums and newsletters have hyped the stock as a defense-focused AI play, and its meme-stock-like volatility means small investors can see big gains (or losses). Yet not all pros are convinced. Top stock picker Robert Izquierdo (TipRanks’ Top Investor list) recently advised caution, noting that BigBear.ai’s “ideal approach is to wait for its Q3 results for signs of revenue recovery before deciding to buy” [34]. In other words, he’s looking for proof that these contracts turn into sales.

The Road Ahead: BigBear.ai will report its third-quarter results on Nov. 10, 2025 [35]. Investors will be listening closely. Positive surprises (stronger bookings, narrowing losses) could send the stock higher, while any misses might trigger a pullback. Meanwhile, U.S. budget boosts – such as the recent “One Big Beautiful Bill” which included nearly $150 billion for defense tech – are often cited by management and analysts as long-term tailwinds for companies like BigBear.ai. If BigBear can steadily win contracts and execute on its projects, some see multi-year upside. But until those ideas hit the P&L, the stock may remain a high-risk, high-reward lottery ticket in the hot AI sector [36] [37].

Sources: BigBear.ai press releases [38] [39]; market news and analysis [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46]. These include investor commentary, financial reports, and technical data up to Oct. 28, 2025.

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References

1. www.investing.com, 2. ts2.tech, 3. ts2.tech, 4. ir.bigbear.ai, 5. ir.bigbear.ai, 6. ts2.tech, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. ts2.tech, 9. ts2.tech, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. ts2.tech, 12. ts2.tech, 13. ts2.tech, 14. ts2.tech, 15. ir.bigbear.ai, 16. ts2.tech, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. ir.bigbear.ai, 19. ts2.tech, 20. ir.bigbear.ai, 21. ir.bigbear.ai, 22. ts2.tech, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. ts2.tech, 25. ts2.tech, 26. ts2.tech, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. ts2.tech, 29. ts2.tech, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. ts2.tech, 32. ts2.tech, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.tipranks.com, 35. ir.bigbear.ai, 36. ts2.tech, 37. www.tipranks.com, 38. ir.bigbear.ai, 39. ir.bigbear.ai, 40. ts2.tech, 41. ts2.tech, 42. ts2.tech, 43. www.tipranks.com, 44. www.tipranks.com, 45. www.marketbeat.com, 46. www.investing.com

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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Stock Market Today

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