- Price Rally: XRP climbed to about $2.64 on Oct 29, 2025 (up ~1.6% for the day)investing.com, continuing a multi-day rebound. Over the past week, the token has risen from the mid-$2.30’s to ~$2.64, pushing to multi-year highs (roughly +12% in one week)investing.com1 .
- Technical Breakout: Traders note XRP recently cleared ~$2.63, establishing a new base and challenging resistance around $2.70–$2.80coindesk.comts2.tech. Chart patterns (inverse head-&-shoulders, cup-and-handle) suggest upside potential; failure to hold the mid-$2s support (~$2.60–2.62) could trigger a drop back toward ~$2.20coindesk.com2 .
- Market Signals: Volume has surged – Oct. 27’s breakout came on ~147% above-average volumets2.tech – and on-chain data show exchange reserves falling (a bullish sign)coindesk.com. RSI and MACD indicators are neutral-to-bullish, with recent dips followed by sharp bounces reflecting accumulationcoindesk.com3 .
- Fundamental Drivers: Ripple’s legal victory and potential spot ETF approvals dominate the narrative. In August 2025 the SEC settled with Ripple (Ripple paid a $125 M fine, and XRP was ruled not a security in routine public sales)ts2.techfinancemagnates.com, removing years of regulatory uncertainty. Several firms (BlackRock, Grayscale, WisdomTree, etc.) have filed for spot XRP ETFs with decisions expected soonts2.technasdaq.com. A launch of an XRP ETF (already teased by one fund reaching $100 M AUM in Sept) is viewed as a potential catalyst that could “open the floodgates” of new institutional inflowsts2.techts2.tech. Meanwhile, Ripple’s ecosystem is expanding (recent buyouts of Hidden Road and GTreasury, new RLUSD stablecoin plans)banklesstimes.combanklesstimes.com, which proponents say should boost adoption.
- Macro & Crypto Market: The broader crypto market is buoyant. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Oct. 28–29, easing liquidity and lifting risk appetitecoindesk.comreuters.com. Bitcoin is holding above $113,000 and Ether around $4,000coindesk.com; XRP’s rally has outpaced both (XRP is up ~440% Y/Yts2.tech vs. Bitcoin’s ~30% in 2025reuters.com). On Oct. 29, XRP remained slightly above $2.60 as Bitcoin and Ether traded flat to slightly lowercoindesk.com. Analysts also highlight that geopolitical events (e.g. recent trade-war news) briefly roiled crypto prices, but institutional buying quickly returnedreuters.com4 .
Analysis – Technicals: XRP’s charts show a bullish bias. CoinDesk analysts report that the critical near-term support now sits around $2.61–2.63coindesk.com, with resistance clustered near $2.70–2.80coindesk.comts2.tech. A decisive close below ~$2.50 would undermine this structurecoindesk.com. Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) have turned cautiously positive in recent sessionscoindesk.com, and the recent breakout was accompanied by heavy volume (one session saw volume ~31–147% above normal)coindesk.comts2.tech. Chart observers note a “cup-and-handle” consolidation forming on XRP’s daily chart; a confirmed move above ~$2.63 could project toward ~$5–$10 in theoryts2.tech. Conversely, failure of the ~$2.60 support band could invite a retest of the ~$2.20–2.40 zonecoindesk.com2 .
Fundamentals – Legal & Adoption: The market’s confidence is fueled by fundamental developments. In August 2025, Ripple and the SEC formally ended their long-running lawsuitts2.techfinancemagnates.com. Crucially, the settlement left intact a 2023 ruling affirming that XRP sales to public investors are not securities transactionsts2.tech. “Now the SEC lawsuit has been removed essentially from all of their screens,” noted former Goldman analyst Dom Kwokfinancemagnates.com, meaning institutional funds can finally talk about XRP without fear. In practice, U.S. exchanges (e.g. Coinbase) have already relisted XRP and flagged it as ETF-eligiblets2.tech. Ripple has also been busy expanding its network: it recently acquired broker-dealer Hidden Road (rebranded Ripple Prime) and treasury platform GTreasurybanklesstimes.combanklesstimes.com, and is rolling out the new RLUSD stablecoin on Ripple’s railsbanklesstimes.com. These moves – along with ongoing corporate partnerships – are expected to deepen real-world utility of XRP.
Market News: Cryptocurrency media are tracking several key headlines. ETF Developments: Six asset managers (BlackRock, Fidelity/Ally, VanEck, etc.) have filed for spot XRP ETFsnasdaq.com; analysts give ~95–100% odds of at least one approval by year-endts2.technasdaq.com. The first retail XRP ETF (Osprey’s XRPR) launched mid-Sep and quickly amassed over $100Mts2.tech. XRP Treasuries: Ripple-backed Evernorth (via SPAC Armada II) plans to raise $1B+ by early 2026 to buy and hold XRPreuters.comnasdaq.com, with $200M coming from SBI and Chris Larsen among investorsreuters.com. Other small “XRP treasury” companies (like VivoPower) have also emerged this yearnasdaq.com. Macroeconomics: Most market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates on Oct. 28–29, which is giving crypto assets a boostcoindesk.comreuters.com. Indeed, crypto indexes and Bitcoin set fresh highs on easing betsreuters.com. Lastly, a recent executive order (Sept. 2025) cleared the way for crypto in 401(k)s, and U.S. regulators have passed stablecoin-friendly rulesreuters.com. All these “crypto-friendly” policies are cited as tailwinds for XRP and the sector at large5 .
“There are two parts to SWIFT today: messaging and liquidity,” Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said mid-year. “If you’re driving all the liquidity, it is good for XRP … so I’ll say five years, 14% [of SWIFT volume].”coindesk.com. In other words, XRP’s long-term bull case rests on capturing a slice of global remittance flows. Meanwhile, industry veterans emphasize the ETF catalyst: Wincent Digital’s Paul Howard commented that “approval of an XRP ETF is likely on the cards,” noting that Ripple’s progress on payments rails and legal clarity make an ETF a “net positive catalyst” that would open new institutional and retail channelsfinancemagnates.com. “This institutional shift is going to obviously create huge inflow,” added Dom Kwokfinancemagnates.com as big funds diversify beyond Bitcoin/Ethereum.
Technical Quotes: Chart pundits echo the cautious optimism. One X (formerly Twitter) analyst (“CRYPTOWZRD”) pointed out that $2.62 is now solid support and that XRP must break $2.75 resistance to keep the rally alivethecoinrepublic.comthecoinrepublic.com. CoinDesk notes a classic inverse head-&-shoulders pattern and rising RSI/MACD, but warns that a close below ~$2.50 would negate the bullish basecoindesk.comcoindesk.com. Volume metrics confirm accumulation: recent sessions saw trading volume well above the weekly average (26–31% higher on Oct. 26–28coindesk.comcoindesk.com, and a one-day spike ~147% above normal on Oct. 276 ).
Bitcoin & Ethereum Comparison: XRP remains the third-largest crypto (≈$150 B market cap) after Bitcoin and Etherts2.tech. Bitcoin traded near $113–115K as of Oct. 29coindesk.com, and Ether held around $4,000–4,100coindesk.com. By year-to-date, Bitcoin is up roughly 30–35% (XRP is up ~400% YOY)ts2.techreuters.com. Notably, XRP has lagged Bitcoin/Ethereum in recent altcoin surges (e.g. BTC rally to new highs in late Octoberreuters.com), but its legal and ETF-specific catalysts are unique. Crypto market watchers also point out that the recent liquidations on Oct. 10 – when XRP briefly plummeted ~$2.77→$1.64 on a China-trade shockts2.techcoindesk.com – were quickly reversed by massive dip-buying7 .
Outlook: Sentiment is cautiously bullish. Analysts’ short-term price targets now center in the $3–$5 range. For example, Standard Chartered projects about $5.00 by year-end (and ~$12 by 2028) if ETF money pours ints2.tech. Crypto.com research suggests a mid/high-single-digit price if flows materializets2.tech. Bloomberg modelers give a base-case year-end target ~$3–$5 (up to ~$6 in a strong scenario)ts2.tech. Conversely, skeptics note that without a definitive breakout or ETF win, XRP could consolidate or slip back toward $2.20–$2.50ts2.techthecoinrepublic.com. As one CoinDesk analyst quipped, until XRP “decisively breaks out,”“talk is cheap; the market wants proof” of sustained momentum8 .
In summary, XRP’s October performance has been marked by volatility and resilience: a swift flash crash and rebound, followed by a measured climb through key levels. With a Fed rate cut imminent and regulatory ambiguity resolved, many investors are looking higher. As ETF approval looms and institutional narratives build, the consensus outlook is positive — but price action in the coming days (and any surprise from regulators) will be the ultimate arbiter.
Sources: Trading data and charts via Investing.cominvesting.com and YChartsycharts.com; CoinDesk market analysescoindesk.comcoindesk.com; Reuters reports (Oct 20 Evernorth/SPACreuters.com; Aug 2025 Ripple-SEC settlementhklaw.com; Aug 2025 Bitcoin surgereuters.com); TechStock² analysists2.techts2.techts2.techts2.tech; Nasdaq/Motley Fool (ETF & treasury news)nasdaq.comnasdaq.com; expert quotes from Coin Republicthecoinrepublic.comthecoinrepublic.com and Finance Magnatesfinancemagnates.comfinancemagnates.com; crypto market commentarycoindesk.com9 .
