XRP Surges Past $2.60 on ETF Hopes and Fed Pivot

Price Rally: XRP climbed to about $2.64 on Oct 29, 2025 (up ~1.6% for the day) ^[1], continuing a multi-day rebound. Over the past week, the token has risen from the mid-$2.30’s to ~$2.64, pushing to multi-year highs (roughly +12% in one week) ^[2] ^[3].
Technical Breakout: Traders note XRP recently cleared ~$2.63, establishing a new base and challenging resistance around $2.70–$2.80 ^[4] ^[5]. Chart patterns (inverse head-&-shoulders, cup-and-handle) suggest upside potential; failure to hold the mid-$2s support (~$2.60–2.62) could trigger a drop back toward ~$2.20 ^[6] ^[7].
Market Signals: Volume has surged – Oct. 27’s breakout came on ~147% above-average volume ^[8] – and on-chain data show exchange reserves falling (a bullish sign) ^[9]. RSI and MACD indicators are neutral-to-bullish, with recent dips followed by sharp bounces reflecting accumulation ^[10] ^[11].
Fundamental Drivers: Ripple’s legal victory and potential spot ETF approvals dominate the narrative. In August 2025 the SEC settled with Ripple (Ripple paid a $125 M fine, and XRP was ruled not a security in routine public sales) ^[12] ^[13], removing years of regulatory uncertainty. Several firms (BlackRock, Grayscale, WisdomTree, etc.) have filed for spot XRP ETFs with decisions expected soon ^[14] ^[15]. A launch of an XRP ETF (already teased by one fund reaching $100 M AUM in Sept) is viewed as a potential catalyst that could “open the floodgates” of new institutional inflows ^[16] ^[17]. Meanwhile, Ripple’s ecosystem is expanding (recent buyouts of Hidden Road and GTreasury, new RLUSD stablecoin plans) ^[18] ^[19], which proponents say should boost adoption.
Macro & Crypto Market: The broader crypto market is buoyant. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Oct. 28–29, easing liquidity and lifting risk appetite ^[20] ^[21]. Bitcoin is holding above $113,000 and Ether around $4,000 ^[22]; XRP’s rally has outpaced both (XRP is up ~440% Y/Y ^[23] vs. Bitcoin’s ~30% in 2025 ^[24]). On Oct. 29, XRP remained slightly above $2.60 as Bitcoin and Ether traded flat to slightly lower ^[25]. Analysts also highlight that geopolitical events (e.g. recent trade-war news) briefly roiled crypto prices, but institutional buying quickly returned ^[26] ^[27].

Analysis – Technicals: XRP’s charts show a bullish bias. CoinDesk analysts report that the critical near-term support now sits around $2.61–2.63 ^[28], with resistance clustered near $2.70–2.80 ^[29] ^[30]. A decisive close below ~$2.50 would undermine this structure ^[31]. Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) have turned cautiously positive in recent sessions ^[32], and the recent breakout was accompanied by heavy volume (one session saw volume ~31–147% above normal) ^[33] ^[34]. Chart observers note a “cup-and-handle” consolidation forming on XRP’s daily chart; a confirmed move above ~$2.63 could project toward ~$5–$10 in theory ^[35]. Conversely, failure of the ~$2.60 support band could invite a retest of the ~$2.20–2.40 zone ^[36] ^[37].

Fundamentals – Legal & Adoption: The market’s confidence is fueled by fundamental developments. In August 2025, Ripple and the SEC formally ended their long-running lawsuit ^[38] ^[39]. Crucially, the settlement left intact a 2023 ruling affirming that XRP sales to public investors are not securities transactions ^[40]. “Now the SEC lawsuit has been removed essentially from all of their screens,” noted former Goldman analyst Dom Kwok ^[41], meaning institutional funds can finally talk about XRP without fear. In practice, U.S. exchanges (e.g. Coinbase) have already relisted XRP and flagged it as ETF-eligible ^[42]. Ripple has also been busy expanding its network: it recently acquired broker-dealer Hidden Road (rebranded Ripple Prime) and treasury platform GTreasury ^[43] ^[44], and is rolling out the new RLUSD stablecoin on Ripple’s rails ^[45]. These moves – along with ongoing corporate partnerships – are expected to deepen real-world utility of XRP.

Market News: Cryptocurrency media are tracking several key headlines. ETF Developments: Six asset managers (BlackRock, Fidelity/Ally, VanEck, etc.) have filed for spot XRP ETFs ^[46]; analysts give ~95–100% odds of at least one approval by year-end ^[47] ^[48]. The first retail XRP ETF (Osprey’s XRPR) launched mid-Sep and quickly amassed over $100M ^[49]. XRP Treasuries: Ripple-backed Evernorth (via SPAC Armada II) plans to raise $1B+ by early 2026 to buy and hold XRP ^[50] ^[51], with $200M coming from SBI and Chris Larsen among investors ^[52]. Other small “XRP treasury” companies (like VivoPower) have also emerged this year ^[53]. Macroeconomics: Most market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates on Oct. 28–29, which is giving crypto assets a boost ^[54] ^[55]. Indeed, crypto indexes and Bitcoin set fresh highs on easing bets ^[56]. Lastly, a recent executive order (Sept. 2025) cleared the way for crypto in 401(k)s, and U.S. regulators have passed stablecoin-friendly rules ^[57]. All these “crypto-friendly” policies are cited as tailwinds for XRP and the sector at large ^[58].

“There are two parts to SWIFT today: messaging and liquidity,” Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said mid-year. “If you’re driving all the liquidity, it is good for XRP … so I’ll say five years, 14% [of SWIFT volume].” ^[59]. In other words, XRP’s long-term bull case rests on capturing a slice of global remittance flows. Meanwhile, industry veterans emphasize the ETF catalyst: Wincent Digital’s Paul Howard commented that “approval of an XRP ETF is likely on the cards,” noting that Ripple’s progress on payments rails and legal clarity make an ETF a “net positive catalyst” that would open new institutional and retail channels ^[60]. “This institutional shift is going to obviously create huge inflow,” added Dom Kwok ^[61] as big funds diversify beyond Bitcoin/Ethereum.

Technical Quotes: Chart pundits echo the cautious optimism. One X (formerly Twitter) analyst (“CRYPTOWZRD”) pointed out that $2.62 is now solid support and that XRP must break $2.75 resistance to keep the rally alive ^[62] ^[63]. CoinDesk notes a classic inverse head-&-shoulders pattern and rising RSI/MACD, but warns that a close below ~$2.50 would negate the bullish base ^[64] ^[65]. Volume metrics confirm accumulation: recent sessions saw trading volume well above the weekly average (26–31% higher on Oct. 26–28 ^[66] ^[67], and a one-day spike ~147% above normal on Oct. 27 ^[68]).

Bitcoin & Ethereum Comparison: XRP remains the third-largest crypto (≈$150 B market cap) after Bitcoin and Ether ^[69]. Bitcoin traded near $113–115K as of Oct. 29 ^[70], and Ether held around $4,000–4,100 ^[71]. By year-to-date, Bitcoin is up roughly 30–35% (XRP is up ~400% YOY) ^[72] ^[73]. Notably, XRP has lagged Bitcoin/Ethereum in recent altcoin surges (e.g. BTC rally to new highs in late October ^[74]), but its legal and ETF-specific catalysts are unique. Crypto market watchers also point out that the recent liquidations on Oct. 10 – when XRP briefly plummeted ~$2.77→$1.64 on a China-trade shock ^[75] ^[76] – were quickly reversed by massive dip-buying ^[77].

Outlook: Sentiment is cautiously bullish. Analysts’ short-term price targets now center in the $3–$5 range. For example, Standard Chartered projects about $5.00 by year-end (and ~$12 by 2028) if ETF money pours in ^[78]. Crypto.com research suggests a mid/high-single-digit price if flows materialize ^[79]. Bloomberg modelers give a base-case year-end target ~$3–$5 (up to ~$6 in a strong scenario) ^[80]. Conversely, skeptics note that without a definitive breakout or ETF win, XRP could consolidate or slip back toward $2.20–$2.50 ^[81] ^[82]. As one CoinDesk analyst quipped, until XRP “decisively breaks out,”“talk is cheap; the market wants proof” of sustained momentum ^[83].

In summary, XRP’s October performance has been marked by volatility and resilience: a swift flash crash and rebound, followed by a measured climb through key levels. With a Fed rate cut imminent and regulatory ambiguity resolved, many investors are looking higher. As ETF approval looms and institutional narratives build, the consensus outlook is positive — but price action in the coming days (and any surprise from regulators) will be the ultimate arbiter.

Sources: Trading data and charts via Investing.com ^[84] and YCharts ^[85]; CoinDesk market analyses ^[86] ^[87]; Reuters reports (Oct 20 Evernorth/SPAC ^[88]; Aug 2025 Ripple-SEC settlement ^[89]; Aug 2025 Bitcoin surge ^[90]); TechStock² analysis ^[91] ^[92] ^[93] ^[94]; Nasdaq/Motley Fool (ETF & treasury news) ^[95] ^[96]; expert quotes from Coin Republic ^[97] ^[98] and Finance Magnates ^[99] ^[100]; crypto market commentary ^[101] ^[102].

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XRP Surges Past $2.60 on ETF Hopes and Fed Pivot – Experts Eye $5 Target

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