- Trump-Xi Trade Truce: Presidents Trump and Xi struck a surprise deal to slash some tariffs in exchange for resumed Chinese soybean purchases and continued rare-earths exportsreuters.com. China agreed to pause export curbs on key minerals for a year, but investors warned the pact may be short-lived.
- Fed Caution: The U.S. Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that a December cut “may not be a done deal”reuters.comreuters.com. This more hawkish tone lifted Treasury yields (U.S. 10-year ~4.08% on Oct. 30) and buoyed the dollarreuters.com. Swissquote strategist Ipek Ozkardeskaya noted this “hawkish stance…is leading to a bearish readjustment of market expectations”reuters.com.
- Tech Earnings Pressure: Mega-cap tech stocks slid. Meta Platforms plunged ~8% on Q3 results after taking a large charge and warning of higher 2026 spendingreuters.com. Microsoft also slipped on heavy AI-related capex, and Apple and Amazon upcoming reports are keenly watched. In contrast, Alphabet (Google) handily beat forecasts – its revenue topped $100 billion – and its stock jumped roughly 7%reuters.com. Nvidia, the AI-chip leader, added to the euphoria: its shares closed up ~3%, taking its market value past $5 trillioneconomictimes.indiatimes.com.
- Wall Street Mixed: On Oct. 29 the Dow Industrials dipped about 0.2% to ~47,632, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat (around 6,890)economictimes.indiatimes.com. The tech-heavy Nasdaq bucked the trend, hitting a record high (23,958) on the Nvidia surgeeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. U.S. futures opened lower on Oct. 30 amid uncertainty (Dow e-minis ~0.3% down)reuters.com. Goldman Sachs analysts have even advised clients to “buy dips into year-end,” expecting another rally under a “Goldilocks” backdropinvestopedia.com.
- Global Reactions: European equities softened (Stoxx 600 ~–0.4% on Oct. 30)reuters.com. Banks, media and retail stocks led declines as investors awaited the ECB, which is widely expected to hold rates steady. In Asia, markets were mixed after the BOJ held policy: Korea’s Kospi rose ~1.4%, Japan’s Nikkei was flat and Hong Kong futures were modestly upts2.tech. Safe havens saw inflows – gold traded near $4,000/oz and the VIX “fear index” jumped to multi-month highs – underscoring shaken sentimentreuters.comreuters.com.
Market Recap
Global stocks wobbled this week on the twin shocks of trade news and monetary policy. In Busan on Oct. 30, Trump met Xi Jinping and touted a deal to trim U.S.–China tariffs, resume Chinese soybean and energy imports, and keep rare-earths exports flowingreuters.com. Beijing promptly agreed to suspend some counter-tariffs for a year. Yet traders remained wary. “A good Trump/Xi meeting was in the price…we’ve simply got confirmation of that,” noted Daiwa’s Chris Scicluna, implying markets had already anticipated a positive outcomereuters.com. In fact, stocks “fell on concerns the truce may prove fleeting” as details were scant.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s Oct. 29 announcement of a 25‑bp cut was priced in, but Powell’s press conference cooled hopes for more easing. He cited policy splits and scant data (amid the U.S. government shutdown) to argue another cut “may be out of reach” in Decemberreuters.comreuters.com. As a result, U.S. 10-year yields rose (near 4.08%) and the dollar strengthenedreuters.com. Safe-haven assets were bid: gold jumped to ~ $4,000/ozreuters.com and the crypto market weakened (Bitcoin briefly dipped under $108,000) in response.
Tech Sector Sags on Earnings
Adding to the cautious mood, big tech earnings broadly disappointed. Meta Platforms (Facebook) reported strong revenue but swung to a one-time $16B loss and warned of sharply higher capital spending. Its stock slid ~8% in extended tradingreuters.com. Microsoft similarly cautioned on rising AI expenses and its shares fell ~3% pre-marketreuters.com. In contrast, Alphabet blew past projections, helping its stock surge ~7%reuters.com. These results reinforced concern that valuations in the tech-heavy market are stretched. “It would take a very strong hawkish shift in Fed rate expectations to derail the risk asset rally,” said HSBC’s Ryan Wang, suggesting big-tech earnings and the AI theme remain driving forcesreuters.com.
Nvidia led the charge: the chipmaker’s stock closed at $207.04 on Oct. 29, a 3% gain, giving it a $5.03 trillion market capeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. This helped the Nasdaq Composite to an all-time close at 23,958, up ~0.6%, even as the Dow and S&P 500 pulled back. The Dow ended Oct. 29 down 74 points (0.16%) at 47,632 and the S&P 500 was roughly flat at 6,890economictimes.indiatimes.com. In pre-market trading on Oct. 30, U.S. futures all slipped as investors weighed the Fed’s stance and awaited further Trump-Xi detailsreuters.com.
Global Markets and Outlook
European stocks nudged lower on Thursday, with the Stoxx 600 down around 0.4% by mid-morningreuters.com. Banks, media and retail sectors led declinesreuters.com. Markets are now focused on the ECB meeting, where policy is expected to be unchanged. In Asia, the reaction was mixed: South Korea’s index jumped ~1.4% on AI-related strength, while Japan and Australia were little changed. “We’re in an environment… where there have been a lot of questions about the future of AI companies,” said UBS strategist Anthi Tsouvali, noting that markets may be “a little bit more pessimistic” about tech going forwardreuters.com. South Korean futures were buoyed by ongoing reforms and a tech rally, but most regional markets held gains until more clarity on trade.
Looking ahead, analysts are divided. Bulls point to strong fundamentals: Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick highlighted that 87% of S&P 500 companies beat Q3 forecasts, “justifying the rally we’ve seen” and likely setting up a “strong end-of-year rally”reuters.com. Indeed, some strategists note that historically a solid year-to-date gain often leads to a bullish fourth quarter (the so-called Santa Claus rally). Goldman Sachs went even further, advising clients to “buy dips into year-end” on expectations of a mild “Goldilocks” economyinvestopedia.com.
However, others urge caution. Bank of America reports half of fund managers see AI stocks in a bubble, and Nomura now expects no further Fed cuts in 2025reuters.com (anticipating instead three 25‑bp cuts in 2026reuters.com). With valuations rich and Powell’s tone more hawkish, Swissquote’s Ozkardeskaya warns markets are undergoing a “bearish readjustment” of expectationsreuters.com. In the words of Saxo Markets, investors are “pricing in caution, not optimism” as trade news disappoints.
Bottom line: Investors have enjoyed a historic run this year, but the late-October news cycle has injected uncertainty. The market sits at a crossroads, grappling with divided Fed signals, a tenuous U.S.–China truce, and stretched tech valuations. Many strategists still see room to extend the rally into year-end, but as UBS’s Tsouvali puts it, “a lot of that upside is already priced in,” and even small disappointments can spark volatility aheadreuters.comreuters.com.
Sources: News reports and expert commentary from Reuters, Investors.com, Bloomberg, ts2.tech and othersreuters.comreuters.comreuters.cominvestopedia.com (October 29–30, 2025). All stock and index moves are as reported around those dates.
