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Federal Reserve 3 July 2026 - 22 July 2026

US mortgage rates can fall without a Fed cut, but bond math shows the limits

US mortgage rates can fall without a Fed cut, but bond math shows the limits

U.S. mortgage rates can fall without a Federal Reserve cut, but the bond-market route now open would need to deliver more than a routine quarter-point move to reverse the latest drop in homebuying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s average 30-year contract rate reached 6.65% in the week ended July 10, the highest since August 2025, while purchase applications fell 7.3% to their lowest since February.
15 July 2026
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U.S. CPI’s housing slowdown, not gasoline slide, is June’s key Fed signal

U.S. CPI’s housing slowdown, not gasoline slide, is June’s key Fed signal

U.S. consumer prices posted their largest monthly fall since April 2020 in June, but the more durable signal for investors came from housing: shelter costs rose just 0.1%, their weakest increase in more than five years. Because housing makes up more than one-third of the index, its slowdown does more to ease underlying inflation pressure than the headline decline alone. Housing is the stickier signal.
14 July 2026
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Oil up 13% as AI stocks, Fed and CPI all in play

Oil up 13% as AI stocks, Fed and CPI all in play

Brent crude jumped about 13% in two days, raising worries that higher oil prices could pinch AI-linked stocks just as rate hike odds are rising. S&P 500 futures added 0.1% before the start of Tuesday’s U.S. session. Traders now see a 43.3% chance of a 0.25-point Fed rate hike at the July 28-29 meeting, up from 34.2% Friday. “The prospect of tighter monetary policy into a potential energy shock is rarely supportive for risk assets,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
14 July 2026
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Fed’s Bowman Calls for Flexible Global Rules, Says U.S. Banks May Hold $320 Billion Extra

Fed’s Bowman Calls for Flexible Global Rules, Says U.S. Banks May Hold $320 Billion Extra

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman told the Financial Stability Board on Monday that global rules should be flexible and based on risk, not hard standards. She warned in London that a one-size-fits-all system “erodes the FSB’s effectiveness.” The FSB, which handles coordination of financial regulation for big economies, plans to put out draft modernization principles for consultation this fall before sending a report to the Group of 20.
13 July 2026
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US Stock Market Week Ahead: CPI, Bank Earnings and the Fed Converge in a 90-Minute Tuesday Test

US Stock Market Week Ahead: CPI, Bank Earnings and the Fed Converge in a 90-Minute Tuesday Test

Wall Street heads into Monday with the VIX, an options-based gauge of expected S&P 500 swings, at 15.03 — only about 12% above its 52-week low — even though Tuesday will pack five major-bank reports, June inflation and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony into one morning. From the consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET to Warsh’s appearance at 10, investors get 90 minutes to reprice rates and earnings after the bank results land before the opening bell. U.S. cash equity markets were closed Sunday.
12 July 2026
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Gold Price Today: Bullion Near $4,762 After Weekly Gain, but Failed Iran Talks Cloud Outlook

Gold Jumps Past $4,100 Again as Fed, Iran Fears Hit Market

Gold bounced above $4,100 an ounce on Thursday, lifted by a weaker dollar after the metal hit its lowest point since July 1. Ongoing U.S.-Iran clashes kept traders focused on inflation and rate risks. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,106.82 an ounce as of 0901 GMT. U.S. August futures were also up 0.8% at $4,116.40. “Gold is trying to form a bottom today as dollar strength eases,” said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com.
9 July 2026
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Nasdaq climbs as AI trading contracts offset Dow weakness

Nasdaq futures weaker vs. Dow as chip shares slip ahead of Fed minutes

U.S. stock futures were mixed early Tuesday, with Nasdaq contracts falling and the Dow and Russell futures higher. Around 5:50 a.m. EDT, Dow Jones E-minis gained 122 points, or 0.23%. S&P 500 E-minis slipped 10.75 points, or 0.14%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis lost 311.25 points, or 1.04%. Russell 2000 futures added 4.6 points, or 0.15%.
7 July 2026
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Gold nears JPMorgan Q3 cap with Fed hike odds steady

Gold nears JPMorgan Q3 cap with Fed hike odds steady

Gold has bounced back from dropping under $4,000 in June, but traders say there’s not much room to run. Spot gold fell on Monday as a stronger dollar weighed, though it stuck close to a two-week high after soft U.S. jobs numbers dimmed the odds of an interest rate hike. COMEX gold futures saw solid trading during the Bengaluru session, while U.S. ETF action was waiting for the NYSE to open at 9:30 a.m. ET.
6 July 2026
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