Wall Street’s next move hinges on whether profits can broaden beyond artificial intelligence, not on another easy headline beat. The answer is cautiously positive, but the bar is high: year-forward S&P 500 earnings estimates have risen 21% in 2026, roughly twice the index’s gain, while projected second-quarter profit growth has been revised to 23.4% from 15.2% in January. That lifts the growth hurdle by about 54%. Technology earnings are expected to jump more than 65%, so Tuesday’s banks will test whether the rally can spread; chip-equipment and contract-manufacturing leaders later in the week will test valuation. “Earnings are even stronger,” Nationwide strategist Mark Hackett said.
