NEW YORK, July 28, 2026, 09:59 EDT — U.S. cash markets have started trading.
Oil’s two-day decline has narrowed roughly 60% of the distance between Friday’s Brent finish and the scenario for full reopening presented by Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS. However, major energy stocks have seen only minor changes. This gap stands out as the most obvious message from investors.
Brent crude hovered close to $86.65 on Tuesday, slipping 1.9%. West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.5% to reach $81.36. Both oil benchmarks looked set for a third straight day of losses.
Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM increased 0.4% at the start of trading. Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX advanced 0.8%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA:XLE was up 0.3%.
The increases came after crude experienced only minor declines on Monday. The initial comparison takes into account both Monday’s performance and early prices on Tuesday.
Asset
Monday shift
Early Tuesday
Net change since Friday
Brent crude
-9.0%
-1.9%
-10.5%
WTI crude
-7.5%
-1.5%
-8.9%
Exxon Mobil
-1.4%
+0.4%
-1.0%
Chevron
-2.3%
+0.8%
-1.5%
Crude prices, as a result, dropped between six and ten times further than the two leading companies. Equity investors seem to anticipate that earnings will stay protected. The market is not factoring in a complete cash-flow adjustment.
Brent settled at $96.78 on Friday. Goldman projects the price will fall to $80 by the end of the year, assuming full reopening of Hormuz takes place in the fourth quarter. On Tuesday, prices had reflected about 60% of that projected drop. This figure represents a price comparison, rather than any estimate of likelihood.
Physical supply has lagged behind in its recovery. Persian Gulf oil exports stayed at 41% of levels seen before the war. Red Sea deliveries dropped by over 3 million barrels per day last week.
Giovanni Staunovo at UBS Group AG NYSE:UBS noted that the market “hopes the situation improves.” Oman is in talks with Iran about establishing a Hormuz management system. The plan would feature voluntary transit fees and involvement from Gulf states. Reuters
Significant supply risk persists. Saudi Aramco TADAWUL:2222 closed its Jazan refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels per day, following an assault. Ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz stayed limited, though activity near Bab el-Mandeb saw a slight uptick.
Energy stocks remained resilient, offsetting declines in the technology sector. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust NYSEARCA:SPY dropped 0.3%. The Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ retreated 1.6%, and Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA slipped 1.3%.
Integrated producers benefit from downstream insulation. TotalEnergies SE NYSE:TTE posted a 362% increase in refining and chemicals profit, with that segment generating $1.8 billion in the second quarter. Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne stated that sporadic access to Hormuz may represent “the new normal.” Reuters
Risks: If the ceasefire fails, oil’s war premium may quickly return. Additional Red Sea interruptions risk driving prices higher than $100. On the other hand, a sustained reopening of Hormuz would weigh on upstream profits and favour Goldman’s $80 Brent outlook.
Investors are advised to monitor tanker movements and refinery shutdowns, rather than focusing solely on diplomatic rhetoric. Energy stocks currently reflect a lull that has yet to be matched by a rebound in physical flows. Markets have yet to factor in a return to regular supply levels.
What ceasefire is currently influencing market activity?
The key market concern is the tenuous lull in fighting between the U.S. and Iran. Washington suspended its bombing campaign, which lasted 13 nights, over the weekend. Iran says it will refrain from attacks as long as the U.S. halt continues. There has been no formal agreement announced, and Tehran rejects Washington’s assertion that active negotiations are underway. Market attention remains on this pause, which does not yet amount to peace.
What is the change in oil prices following the ceasefire headlines?
Brent slipped 2.3% to $86.32 as of 12:54 GMT on Tuesday, while WTI was down 2.0% at $80.93, both marking one-week lows. On Monday, losses were sharper: Brent declined 8.7% and WTI dropped 7.5%. Brent is still trading roughly 23% above its July 2 low of $70.14. The market is factoring in short-term relief, but has yet to price in a full return of regional supply.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz considered more significant than the wording on a ceasefire?
Prior to the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz accounted for around one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. Kpler data shows only six vessels carrying commodities transited the strait on Monday. Vessel movement remains sharply limited along this major energy passage. Oman has suggested a regional joint management plan that includes optional user fees. As of Monday evening, Iran had yet to formally respond to the offer. Geopolitical risk premiums for crude remain significant until flows return to normal.
What factors could drive crude lower this week?
A practical Hormuz deal and ongoing ship movement are crucial. Oman’s proposal prevents Iran from having exclusive control and turns payments into an option. Bab el-Mandeb saw 28 ships pass on Monday, down from the July high of 46. A wider rebound in shipping would reduce the leftover supply premium. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent around $80 by year-end if Hormuz reopens entirely. That outlook factors in reopening during the fourth quarter.
What factors could end the pause and push oil prices up again?
Trump stated that U.S. airstrikes may restart if talks do not succeed. Iranian officials have also vowed to retaliate under the same circumstances. Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery, with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, was shut on July 27 following an attack. The Houthis said they targeted the East-West Pipeline heading toward Yanbu. On July 23, Brent rose to $102—only five days ago. Triple-digit oil prices are, therefore, a current reality rather than a hypothetical risk.
What is causing uneven gains among U.S. stock indexes?
The Dow opened higher by 0.54% to reach 52,492.88 on Tuesday. The S&P 500 slipped, losing 0.24%, and Nasdaq decreased 0.43%. The session’s start was shaped by concerns over AI chips and elevated technology spending. A chip selloff sent global equity markets to a one-month low. Easing oil prices offered some support, but broader market risks remained.
What industries stand to gain the most if the pause remains in effect?
Airlines, travel operators, and transport firms often benefit from declining fuel costs. On Monday, the plunge in oil sent Occidental shares down 4.1% and Exxon shares lower by 1.4%. Reuters By Tuesday’s opening session, trading was mixed. Delta shares were little changed, United slipped 0.6%, and both oil majors climbed back 0.4%. While initial market moves benefited companies reliant on fuel, factors like earnings and investor positioning soon muddied the picture.
Does the ceasefire mean investors ought to exit defense stocks?
The tape currently signals no. Lockheed shares climbed 1.7% and RTX rose 1.0% in early trade Tuesday. The companies reported order backlogs totaling $230.4 billion for Lockheed and $289 billion for RTX. Lockheed’s order book expanded 38.3%, RTX’s increased 22% versus the prior year. Ongoing demand from Ukraine and Pentagon restocking both serve as distinct, significant revenue sources. Even a tentative pause does not eliminate those contracted orders.
What impact does the ceasefire have on gold and interest-rate forecasts?
Spot gold was down 1.2% at $4,026.21 as of 12:00 GMT Tuesday. The dollar held close to a four-week peak, pressuring bullion prices. Markets were factoring in a 36% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase from the Fed on Wednesday, and saw about an 80% likelihood of a September rate hike. While falling oil may help cool inflation, energy prices are still high. As a result, gold’s performance reflects movements in rates and currencies, in addition to optimism over a possible ceasefire.
What key factors should investors monitor in the coming week?
Monitor Iran’s official reply to Oman’s Hormuz initiative. Keep tracking daily ship movements in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Reuters The Fed’s Wednesday, July 29, policy move may overshadow short-term ceasefire sentiment. Trump’s July 28 talks with Netanyahu could shift the level of military risk. Sustainable relief relies on real improvements in shipping and a stretch of strike-free days. Headlines alone will not suffice.
Leokadia Głogulska is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech. Her coverage ranges from stocks and artificial intelligence to space technology and developments across global markets. She graduated from Wrocław University of Economics and Business and worked in financial analysis before becoming a business journalist.
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