US Stocks Slide Before Fed as Oil Surges; Two Shares Drive 72% of Dow Loss

NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 12:04 p.m. EDT

The Dow fell 1.61%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.93%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.14%.
Two high-priced Dow components generated about 72% of the index’s decline.
The Federal Reserve decision was due at 2 p.m. EDT. Major technology earnings follow the closing bell.

U.S. stocks fell around midday Wednesday as surging oil revived inflation concerns. The Dow dropped about 852 points, its sharpest of the three major index declines.

That headline overstated the market-wide damage. Caterpillar NYSE:CAT and Goldman Sachs Group NYSE:GS supplied roughly 610 Dow points, according to a calculation using their share-price moves. That represented about 72% of the index’s decline.

The Dow is weighted by share price. Companies with high nominal stock prices can dominate its movement, regardless of market value.

Benchmark	Preliminary level	Point change	Percentage change
Dow Jones Industrial Average	51,895.78	-851.54	-1.61%
S&P 500	7,359.66	-69.12	-0.93%
Nasdaq Composite	24,593.89	-283.02	-1.14%

The readings were recorded between 11:48 a.m. and noon EDT. The session remained open.

Caterpillar fell 6.5%, cutting $54.76 from its share price. Goldman lost 4.6%, or $47.85. Each dollar represented about 5.94 Dow points.

Caterpillar’s decline followed a downgrade by Baird to “Hold” from “Buy.” The broker cut its target to $900 from $1,200, citing risks around data-centre investment and regulation. Barron’s

Selling was still broad. Only about 43% of S&P 500 members advanced, while 10 of the Dow’s 30 components gained.

Oil supplied the clearest macro pressure. Brent crude jumped almost 7% toward $90 a barrel. U.S. crude rose more than 6% to roughly $84.

Treasury yields also moved higher. The 10-year yield reached 4.635%, compared with 4.604% on Tuesday.

Rate futures assigned roughly a 36% probability to a Fed increase. That was up from about 31% one day earlier. The central bank’s statement was due at 2 p.m. EDT.

Semiconductor shares added pressure. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA fell 2.6%, Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD lost 4.4%, and Micron Technology NASDAQ:MU declined 3.7%.

“The pressure is shifting from spending plans to returns on investment,” said Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth. Reuters

Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT and Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META report after Wednesday’s close. Options markets implied post-earnings moves of 6.6% and 7.8%, respectively.

Microsoft’s implied swing represented about $190 billion in market value. Its average implied move during the previous 12 reporting cycles was 4.8%.

Some oil-sensitive and defensive shares resisted the decline. Chevron NYSE:CVX gained about 2.8%, while Apple NASDAQ:AAPL edged 0.3% higher.

The risk balance remains two-sided. A surprise rate increase or another oil spike could deepen the selloff. Softer Fed language or strong cloud results could reverse it quickly.

Wall Street remained open at publication. All index readings were preliminary, and no closing prices or after-hours earnings had been released.

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Further analysis

Editorial insight

Have today’s closing figures been finalized?

No. At the time verified, 12:02 p.m. Eastern, nearly four hours of trading remained. By midday, lagging data showed the S&P 500 at 7,364.28, down 0.87%. The Dow stood at 51,897.11, a decrease of 1.61%, while the Nasdaq was 24,590.72, down 1.15%. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.31%. VIX gained 8.84% to 19.82. Closing prices and after-hours earnings were unavailable. MarketWatch

What is causing today’s market decline?

Escalating conflict in the Middle East sent WTI crude up 6.7% to reach $84.60, while Brent neared $90, fueling renewed worries that higher energy prices may keep inflation elevated. Reuters The 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.64%, adding further pressure to stock valuations. Semiconductor shares underperformed, with SOXX sliding 4.16% by midday. Oil sparked the move. Rising yields and chip weakness deepened it. MarketWatch

What decision is anticipated from the Fed today?

The current target range for federal funds stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. A policy decision is due at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Federal Reserve Futures projections fluctuated by timestamp, indicating a 64%–70% chance of holding steady. The probability of a hike was between 30% and 36%, leaving it a significant tail risk. Markets have priced in at least one 25-basis-point hike by September. Investors are focused on potential dissents and awaiting Kevin Warsh’s press conference. Barron’s

Is the decline widespread, or mainly focused on technology?

Both indexes fell as losers topped gainers by a 1.43-to-1 margin on the NYSE, while the ratio on the Nasdaq was 1.39-to-1. Among S&P sectors, industrials led declines, with financials and consumer discretionary also retreating. Reuters Chip stocks fell more sharply, dragging XLK down by 1.69% and SOXX off by 4.16%. By contrast, energy outperformed, as XLE rose 2.31% alongside a rally in crude oil.

Has the Nasdaq entered correction territory?

No, based on the latest delayed quote, the composite was at 24,612.36, which is roughly 9.5% lower than its peak of 27,190.21. The correction mark is set at 24,471, representing a 10% fall, leaving a margin of just 141 points. Over five days, the index declined 4.2%, and it lost 5.5% for the month. MarketWatch

Which post-close earnings releases have the greatest impact on the indexes?

Microsoft and Meta are both due to report earnings following Wednesday’s market close. Analysts expect Microsoft to post revenue of $87.6 billion and earnings of $4.24 per share. For Meta, consensus estimates stand at $60.2 billion in revenue and earnings of $7.19 per share. MarketWatch Options trading signals an expected 6.6% swing for Microsoft, with Meta’s stock poised for a 7.8% move. Combined, their market capitalisation at midday was near $4.45 trillion. The outcome of these earnings could have a significant impact on Nasdaq levels before Thursday’s session begins. Reuters

Which shares are leading the most significant index shifts today?

Caterpillar shed 6.3%, Boeing slipped 4.3%, and Goldman Sachs dropped 3.9%, contributing to the Dow’s decline. Offsetting some losses, Chevron advanced 2.4% and Salesforce gained 2.7%. MarketWatch In the S&P 500, Garmin jumped 17.5%, Cognizant climbed 11.6%, and GE HealthCare increased 11.1% among the index’s top performers. Lennox fell 20.1%, Vertiv retreated 14.4%, and Masco slid 10.7% among major laggards. Company earnings continue to drive significant stock swings. MarketWatch

Which levels are important heading into the close today?

S&P immediate support is seen at the intraday low around 7,361, while the previous close at 7,428.78 marks the initial rebound level. MarketWatch Nasdaq support is found near 24,569, with the next key level at the correction threshold near 24,471. The Dow recorded a session low close to 51,882. The VIX reached 20.10; maintaining readings above 20 would keep hedging costs elevated. MarketWatch

What is the expected outlook for the market heading into Thursday?

My central expectation is that the Fed will pause, paired with a hawkish tone. That outlook points to the S&P ending between 7,320 and 7,430. I forecast the Dow in the 51,500–52,250 range and Nasdaq between 24,250–24,850. Should the Fed deliver a surprise rate hike, the S&P may fall to 7,200–7,320, with the Nasdaq likely around 23,900–24,300. Barron’s Thursday’s session will be influenced by results from Microsoft, Meta, as well as the release of second-quarter GDP and June PCE data. The consensus anticipates 1.8% annualized GDP, headline PCE at 3.7%, and core PCE at 3.3%. These figures represent scenario ranges and should not be considered confirmed closing levels. MarketWatch

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Mateusz Kaczmarek is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global market developments. A graduate of the Poznań University of Economics and Business, he previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. His reporting focuses on technology companies, market trends and the forces shaping global investment markets. Follow Mateusz Kaczmarek on Google News.