SANTA CLARA, California, August 18, 2026, 14:15 PDT — U.S. cash markets remained shut.
- NVIDIA ended the session at $219.74, a decrease of 2.34%, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index slipped 5%.
- The maximum Ohio guarantee of $105 billion is 2.1 times the company’s operating cash flow from the first quarter.
- The contingent guarantee, due to its significance, is set to be a focal point in the August 26 earnings disclosure.
NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA declined 2.34% on Tuesday as rising bond yields pressured semiconductor stocks. Shares finished at $219.74. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 5%.
The wider market decline masked a bigger question about the balance sheet. NVIDIA has committed to back as much as $105 billion for an OpenAI data-center lease in Ohio. That amount is 2.09 times more than the $50.34 billion of operating cash it produced last quarter.
The comparison uses a conservative approach. The guarantee does not mean an instant cash payout. Instead, it applies to a portion of lease and utility commitments, and ensures a minimum site value if OpenAI fails to meet its obligations and the owner is unable to fully recover by selling or re-leasing the site.
| August 18 close | Level | Daily move | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA | $219.74 | -2.34% | Topped chip index by 2.66 points |
| Philadelphia Semiconductor Index | — | -5.00% | Selling hit semiconductor stocks broadly |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,289.71 | -1.33% | NVIDIA trailed by 1.01 points |
| S&P 500 | 7,691.76 | -0.69% | Growth names under more stress |
Trading volumes were high but not excessive. Roughly 81.6 million NVIDIA shares were traded, representing 56% of the three-month average daily volume reported by Yahoo Finance. The stock closed 7.1% under its 52-week peak.
The latest rate surprise on Tuesday intensified the pressure. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest mark since 2007, and the 10-year yield rose to its strongest point since January 2025. “Every time bond yields rise, that tends to disproportionately hit the technology names,” NFJ Investment Group portfolio manager Burns McKinney told Reuters. Source
| Guarantee benchmark | Verified amount | $105 billion as a multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 operating cash flow | $50.34 billion | 2.09× |
| Cash, debt and marketable equity securities | $80.57 billion | 1.30× |
| Q2 FY2027 revenue outlook midpoint | $91.00 billion | 1.15× |
| Market cap on August 18 | $5.322 trillion | 1.97% |
NVIDIA intends to invest $1.5 billion in SB Energy, the project developer. OpenAI has agreed to lease the Pike County location for a period of 20 years. The initial 800 megawatts are projected for 2028, with total capacity possibly rising to 8 gigawatts.
The commercial potential is significant but will take time to realize. Chief Executive Jensen Huang stated that the first location might eventually bring up to $200 billion in revenue for NVIDIA. He estimated that OpenAI’s possible revenue through 2030 could reach $600 billion, based on 16 gigawatts of computing capacity.
This results in a gross revenue-to-guarantee ratio of 5.7 at the highest values. This is not a projection of returns. The revenue calculation does not factor in timing, chip expenses, financing charges or any losses from guarantees.
“We are establishing durable infrastructure for Nvidia compute to enable OpenAI to operate highly efficient AI factories that can be upgraded multiple times.”
Jensen Huang, NVIDIA chief executive, via Reuters
Certain analysts continue to project significant upside. The estimates shown below do not represent a consensus, as the reports were released at various times.
| Analyst / firm | Rating | Target | Upside from $219.74 | Report date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivek Arya / BofA | Buy | $350 | 59.3% | Aug. 18, 2026 |
| Aaron Rakers / Wells Fargo | Overweight | $315 | 43.4% | May 20, 2026 |
| Gil Luria / D.A. Davidson | Buy | $300 | 36.5% | June 1, 2026 |
BofA’s Vivek Arya stated that the financing risk remains controlled due to a capped exposure. His target of $350 suggests an upside of 59.3%. This view is based on sustained AI demand and on NVIDIA maintaining both its cash returns and support for clients.
Risks: Delays in construction, power supply issues, softer AI demand, or OpenAI defaults could change a guarantee that supports sales into a cash obligation. Rising yields may also put pressure on NVIDIA’s trailing earnings multiple of 34.5 times before the extent of such risk is clear.
NVIDIA is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 26, with results expected around 1:20 p.m. PDT, and a conference call set for 2 p.m. Investors are set to focus on how the guarantee is recorded in accounts, what conditions initiate it, and its impact on share repurchases.
Related articles: NASDAQ:NVDA
NASDAQ:NVDA · investor dashboard
NVIDIA Corporation
The $105B ceiling is large versus cash generation, but contingent—not an upfront outflow.
Official close · 16:00 EDT
7.1% below the $236.54 52-week high. Market value: $5.322T.
Maximum Ohio guarantee · benchmarked
Vs. operating cash
Q1 FY27 operating cash flow
Vs. liquid assets
Cash + debt/equity securities
Vs. guided revenue
Q2 FY27 midpoint
Vs. market value
of $5.322T capitalization
Daily performance
NVIDIA beat the chip index by 2.66 percentage points, but lagged the Nasdaq.
Selected analyst recommendations
Selected published targets, not consensus. Upside uses the August 18 close.
Next verified catalyst
13:20 PDT results
14:00 PDT call
Watch for the guarantee's accounting treatment, trigger conditions and effect on capital returns. Q2 revenue guidance is $91.0B ±2%; non-GAAP gross-margin guidance is 75.0% ±50 bps. Main risk: a contingent guarantee becomes a cash claim if OpenAI defaults and site recovery falls short.
Data as of August 18, 2026, 16:00 EDT unless stated. Sources: Yahoo Finance close/volume; Reuters market and SB Energy reports; NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 release and August 26 call notice; NVIDIA Form 10-Q filed May 20, 2026; selected analyst reports published May 20–August 18, 2026. Calculations may differ slightly due to rounding.
