- Futures lower before the open. S&P 500, Nasdaq‑100 and Dow futures pointed to a weaker start as investors questioned stretched tech valuations; the VIX hovered near a two‑week high. [1]
- Bank CEOs sound alarms. Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick said, “We should welcome the possibility that there would be drawdowns, 10% to 15%, … not driven by some sort of macro cliff effect.” Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon added that “technology multiples are full.” [2]
- Government shutdown keeps markets in ‘data darkness’. With official U.S. statistics partly paused, traders lean on private reports; ADP’s monthly jobs data lands Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, and ADP has begun publishing weekly estimates. [3]
- Fed‑watch today. Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks on the outlook at 2:00 p.m. ET—a key stop for policy clues in the absence of fresh government data. [4]
- Earnings & movers. Palantir slid despite an earnings beat; Sarepta plunged on a trial failure; Spotify rose on a stronger profit outlook; Uber beat on Q3 but guided cautiously, sending shares lower pre‑market. AMD reports after the bell. [5]
- Rates & oil. The 10‑year Treasury yield is around ~4.1% (latest published level), while crude eased after OPEC+ signaled a pause to output hikes. [6]
Live market snapshot (pre‑open)
Timestamp: ~12:50 UTC (7:50 a.m. ET) — indicative live quotes.
Index proxies (ETFs)
- SPY 683.34
- QQQ 632.08
- DIA 473.47
- IWM 245.44
Megacaps & key names
AAPL 269.05 • MSFT 517.03 • NVDA 206.88 • AMZN 254.00 • GOOGL 283.72 • AMD 259.65 • TSLA 468.37 • PLTR 207.18 • SRPT 24.45 • UBER 99.72 • SHOP 172.94 • SPOT 644.09 • QCOM 180.72. Live quotes.
Note: Prices above are live snapshots and may differ from the official open.
What’s driving the market
1) Valuation angst meets AI fatigue. At a Hong Kong summit, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick flagged the chance of a routine 10–15% drawdown; Goldman’s David Solomon said “technology multiples are full.” Their caution arrives after a months‑long AI‑led melt‑up and record highs in the S&P 500, nudging futures lower and lifting the VIX. [7]
2) A market flying with fewer instruments. The U.S. government shutdown—now into its fifth week—has curtailed several official data releases, leaving the Fed and Wall Street to lean on alternatives. ADP confirmed it will publish a weekly private‑payrolls estimate and will release its October monthly report on Wednesday (8:15 a.m. ET). [8]
3) Earnings move individual names.
- Palantir (PLTR): Shares fell despite a revenue beat and upbeat Q4 guide, as investors reassessed a year‑to‑date surge. [9]
- Sarepta (SRPT): Stock plunged after a key confirmatory trial for two DMD therapies failed, deepening pipeline concerns. [10]
- Spotify (SPOT): Popped after forecasting Q4 profit above estimates on user growth and price hikes. [11]
- Uber (UBER): Beat Q3 revenue but shares slipped pre‑market as Q4 profitability guidance ran a touch light; management highlighted Uber One as a holiday demand booster. [12]
- Tonight: AMD (AMD) reports after the close (5:00 p.m. ET call). Qualcomm (QCOM) follows Wednesday after the bell. [13]
4) Macro cross‑currents.
- Yields: The 10‑year Treasury last published near 4.11%; traders have pared odds of a December rate cut versus a week ago, according to CME FedWatch readings cited in currency coverage. [14]
- Oil: Brent eased after OPEC+ signaled it will pause output increases early next year, adding a mild growth‑tailwind but flagging demand questions. [15]
The setup for the rest of the week
Base case (most likely): Chop and fade into Fed‑speak and the ADP report. With large‑cap tech extended and data visibility limited, dips may be met by buyers but up‑moves could stall on valuation pushback and headline risk.
Bull case: If Fed rhetoric leans incrementally dovish and private jobs data is steady, leadership could broaden beyond megacaps, supporting cyclicals and small caps into mid‑week.
Bear case: A stronger‑for‑longer rates narrative (or a big guidance miss from AI bellwethers) could extend selling, especially in high‑multiple software/AI cohorts, with volatility staying bid into Wednesday’s data.
(This section is analysis, not investment advice.)
Today’s calendar (ET)
- 9:30 a.m. U.S. cash equity market opens
- 2:00 p.m. Fed Gov. Lisa D. Cook speaks: “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.” [16]
- After the close: AMD Q3 results; 5:00 p.m. ET conference call. Qualcomm on deck Wednesday p.m. [17]
Sources & expert quotes
- “We should welcome the possibility that there would be drawdowns, 10% to 15% …” — Ted Pick, Morgan Stanley CEO; “technology multiples are full,” — David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO. Both remarks came as executives discussed frothy valuations and the chance of a healthy reset. [18]
- Market context & pre‑market tone: U.S. stock futures slipped; VIX near a two‑week high. [19]
- Shutdown “data darkness” & workarounds: Impact on official releases; private‑sector data (ADP weekly & monthly). [20]
- Company movers: Palantir, Sarepta, Spotify, Uber updates; Amazon–OpenAI cloud deal backdrop. [21]
- Rates & oil: 10‑year yield reference; OPEC+ signal on output. [22]
Editor’s note: Live prices are dynamic and may differ at the opening print. This article is for information only and not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.federalreserve.gov, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. fred.stlouisfed.org, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. fred.stlouisfed.org, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.federalreserve.gov, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. fred.stlouisfed.org
