Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) posted third‑quarter 2025 revenue of ~$1.02 billion and a GAAP loss of $0.51 per share, topping Wall Street estimates as sales of its updated COVID‑19 vaccine outperformed. The company narrowed its full‑year revenue range to $1.6–$2.0 billion, cut operating‑expense guidance, and raised its year‑end cash outlook. Shares popped in pre‑market trading before wobbling intraday. [1]
- Revenue & EPS: Q3 revenue $1.016B; GAAP EPS −$0.51. Both beat consensus. [2]
- Guidance: Full‑year 2025 revenue narrowed to $1.6–$2.0B; GAAP opex cut by ~$700M to $5.2–$5.4B; year‑end cash now seen at $6.5–$7.0B. [3]
- Product mix: COVID‑19 vaccine sales $971M (U.S. ~$781M; international ~$190M); RSV vaccine (mRESVIA) $2M. [4]
- Market reaction: Shares rose pre‑market after the beat; trading has been volatile through the session. [5]
What happened
Moderna’s Q3 print outpaced expectations on both the top and bottom lines, led by stronger‑than‑modeled sales of its updated COVID‑19 shot (marketed this season as mNEXSPIKE/Spikevax 2025–26). Management simultaneously tightened the full‑year revenue band and lowered operating‑expense plans, signaling continued attention to cost control as the company pivots beyond the pandemic peak. [6]
In a same‑day report, Reuters noted the company trimmed the top end of its revenue outlook, citing weaker‑than‑expected U.S. uptake amid access hurdles and tighter public‑health guidance—factors that skewed sales toward Q3 versus Q4. The beat still pushed shares higher in early trading. [7]
By the numbers
- Total revenue: $1.016B (−45% y/y), beating consensus;
- GAAP net loss:$200M; GAAP EPS:−$0.51;
- COVID‑19 vaccine sales:$971M for the quarter;
- mRESVIA (RSV) sales:$2M;
- Cash & investments (Sep. 30):$6.6B;
- Year‑end cash outlook:$6.5–$7.0B. [8]
Guidance, cost actions, and liquidity
Moderna narrowed 2025 revenue to $1.6–$2.0B and now expects GAAP opex of $5.2–$5.4B, down about $700M versus prior commentary. The company also raised year‑end cash expectations to $6.5–$7.0B, underscoring liquidity while it funds late‑stage programs. [9]
Reuters further reported that management attributed the outlook change largely to U.S. demand headwinds—including later‑than‑expected CDC recommendations that constrained widespread access this fall—partly offset by stronger international sales at the low end of the range. [10]
Pipeline and regulatory snapshot
- mNEXSPIKE / Spikevax 2025–26: Approved in ~40 countries; in the U.S., authorized this season for adults ≥65 and ages 12–64 with at least one risk factor. [11]
- RSV (mRESVIA): Approved for adults ≥60 in 40 countries and for at‑risk adults 18–59 in 31 of those markets; early sales remain modest. [12]
- Flu (mRNA‑1010): Phase 3 data presented this fall; submissions in U.S./Canada/Australia/EU targeted by January 2026. [13]
- Flu/COVID combo (mRNA‑1083): Awaiting FDA guidance to refile; under EMA review; refile in Canada planned this year. [14]
- CMV (mRNA‑1647):Development discontinued after the Phase 3 trial did not meet its primary endpoint (Moderna continues study in a transplant setting). [15]
Management color
CEO Stéphane Bancel called Q3 “strong” commercially, crediting the mNEXSPIKE launch and the company’s cost‑reduction program, and pointed to Analyst Day on Nov. 20 for deeper pipeline updates. (Quote summarized from the company’s earnings release.) [16]
What to watch next
- Analyst Day (Nov. 20, 2025): Expect more detail on respiratory submissions and timelines in oncology (personalized cancer vaccine mRNA‑4157 with Merck), rare‑disease programs (PA, MMA), and updated capital allocation. [17]
- Q4 U.S. vaccination cadence: Whether access and guidance issues ease could influence Q4 delivery phasing and 2026 entry inventory. [18]
- Regulatory milestones: Clarity on mRNA‑1083 U.S. path and mRNA‑1010 filing timing by early 2026. [19]
The bottom line
Moderna beat lowered expectations in Q3 and leaned harder into cost discipline, but near‑term revenue remains tied to a choppy U.S. COVID market and a still‑forming RSV franchise. The investment debate now turns to regulatory traction for flu and the combo shot, plus execution in oncology and rare diseases—all set to feature at this month’s Analyst Day. [20]
Sources: Company 8‑K/press release and investor materials; same‑day coverage and market context from Reuters and other financial outlets. Figures are as reported on Nov. 6, 2025.
References
1. www.sec.gov, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. investors.modernatx.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.sec.gov
