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Saudi Aramco Stock Analysis 2025: Is the Oil Giant Still Worth Your Money?
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Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) — Before Market Open Today (Nov 7, 2025): Oil Rebounds But Heads for Weekly Loss, Aramco Cuts Asian OSPs, and Q3 Dividend Dates to Watch

by
7 November 2025

Dateline: Friday, November 7, 2025 — Riyadh/Dhahran

Note on timing: The Saudi Exchange (Tadawul) does not trade on Fridays. The next equity session opens Sunday, Nov 9, 10:00 a.m. KSA (pre‑open auction 9:30–10:00). Use today’s headlines to position for Sunday’s open. [1]

Key takeaways

  • Oil is firmer today but still set for a second straight weekly loss on oversupply concerns (Brent ~US$64; WTI ~US$60), a backdrop that typically steers sentiment in Aramco shares. [2]
  • Aramco cut its December Official Selling Prices (OSPs) to Asia—Arab Light set to +$1/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, with other grades reduced $1.20–$1.40/bbl—signaling caution into year‑end demand. [3]
  • Q3 2025 earnings this week: net profit SAR 101.02bn (‑2.3% y/y), adjusted net income US$28bn (above consensus), with an upgraded 2030 sales‑gas capacity target (+~80% vs 2021). [4]
  • Dividend watch: Q3 base dividend SAR 0.3278/share plus performance‑linked SAR 0.0034/share; eligibility (ex‑date) Nov 17; payment Nov 26. [5]
  • Positioning into Sunday: Last close SAR 25.60 (Thu), 52‑week range SAR 23.04–29.00. [6]

Market backdrop today (Nov 7)

Oil prices edged higher early Friday but remain on track for a second weekly decline amid inventory builds and lingering oversupply worries. By mid‑morning London time, Brent traded near US$64 and WTI near US$60, keeping pressure on oil‑linked equities heading into the next Gulf trading day. [7]

Adding to the softer tone, Saudi Arabia cut December OSPs for multiple grades to Asian buyers a day earlier—Arab Light to a premium of US$1/bbl over Oman/Dubai—after OPEC+ opted for a modest output increase in December with a pause signaled for early 2026 to avoid worsening any glut. Pricing moves were in line with market expectations and reflect weaker product cracks and ample regional supply. [8]

Company news investors need now

1) December OSPs lowered

Aramco’s December OSP reductions (Arab Light, Extra Light, Medium, Heavy) point to a more competitive stance into year‑end and may translate into lower realized prices if benchmark weakness persists. The step follows OPEC+’s latest adjustment and is a near‑term watch item for Aramco’s Q4 cash generation. [9]

2) Q3 2025 results at a glance (released this week)

  • Net profit:SAR 101.02bn (US$26.94bn), ‑2.3% y/y on lower crude/product prices, but beat on adjusted basis with US$28bn adjusted net income.
  • Operations: Higher volumes q/q; total hydrocarbon production ~13.3 mmboe/d; and 2030 sales‑gas capacity target lifted to ~+80% vs 2021—tied to Jafurah and broader gas strategy.
  • Dividends: Q3 base and performance‑linked payouts confirmed (see “Dividend & dates”). [10]

3) Strategic moves reflected in filings

Aramco confirmed the completion of a 25% equity stake in Unioil (Philippines) in October, extending its retail footprint in a fast‑growing fuels market. The Q3 interim report also details the additional ~22.5% stake in Petro Rabigh and the midstream deal at Jafurah, underscoring downstream/gas build‑out priorities. [11]

Dividend & dates (near‑term)

  • Q3 2025 base dividend:SAR 0.3278/share
  • Q3 2025 performance‑linked dividend:SAR 0.0034/share
  • Eligibility (ex‑date):Nov 17, 2025
  • Payment date:Nov 26, 2025
    Aramco maintains a progressive base dividend with a performance‑linked layer tied to surplus free cash flow, as outlined in investor materials. [12]

Stock check: where 2222.SR stands into Sunday

  • Last close (Thu):SAR 25.60
  • 52‑week range:SAR 23.04–29.00
  • Context: With Tadawul closed on Fridays, any follow‑through from today’s global oil moves will filter into Sunday’s open and the 9:30–10:00 a.m. pre‑open auction. [13]

What to watch at the next open (Sun, Nov 9)

  1. Oil tape: A weaker weekly finish for Brent/WTI would typically cap upside for energy beta; conversely, sustained intraday bids could offer support. [14]
  2. Reception to December OSP cuts: Investors may weigh the trade‑off between market share defense and realized price pressure for Q4. [15]
  3. Dividend positioning: With the Nov 17 eligibility date approaching, watch for local retail and institutional flows sensitive to yield timing. [16]
  4. Gas narrative: The raised 2030 sales‑gas capacity target (and Jafurah progress) keeps medium‑term diversification in focus amid oil price volatility. [17]

The bigger picture

Aramco’s near‑term share performance remains tethered to crude sentiment and OSP policy, but the strategy mix—higher gas, deeper downstream integration, and selective international retail exposure—is designed to cushion cycle swings and broaden cash‑flow sources. This week’s filings and updates reinforce that long‑term pivot even as the company navigates a softer oil tape into year‑end. [18]

Practical trading note (Tadawul logistics)

  • Pre‑open auction:9:30–10:00 a.m. KSA
  • Continuous trading:10:00 a.m.–3:00 p.m. KSA
  • Trade‑at‑last:3:10–3:20 p.m. KSA
  • Trading days:Sunday–Thursday (closed Fridays/Saturdays)
    Plan orders and liquidity around the auction windows; official session times above are from the Saudi Exchange. [19]

Sources (today’s most relevant)

  • Oil prices (Nov 7): Reuters market wrap on crude heading for a second weekly loss. [20]
  • Aramco December OSP cuts: Reuters report detailing Arab Light at +$1/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, with grade‑specific reductions. [21]
  • Q3 results and guidance: Reuters earnings story; Aramco investor news release. [22]
  • Dividends schedule (Q3 ex‑date/pay date): Aramco investor relations. [23]
  • Trading hours/days: Saudi Exchange (Tadawul) official schedule. [24]
  • Share price context: Reuters 2222.SR snapshot page (previous close, 52‑week range). [25]

This article is for information only and not investment advice. Always verify session times and corporate actions via official sources before trading.

Saudi Aramco Keeps Dividend Even as Oil Crisis Hits Profit
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. www.tadawulgroup.sa, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.aramco.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.aramco.com, 12. www.aramco.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.aramco.com, 17. www.aramco.com, 18. www.aramco.com, 19. www.tadawulgroup.sa, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.aramco.com, 24. www.tadawulgroup.sa, 25. www.reuters.com

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