USD/EUR today, 10 Nov 2025: EUR/USD trades around 1.156 as the U.S. Senate advances a bill to end the shutdown. What’s driving the move and where next ahead of Thursday’s U.S. CPI? Forecast, levels, and calendar inside.
At a glance — today’s USD/EUR and EUR/USD
- EUR/USD spot: ~1.156 (Euro up modestly vs USD). Today’s intraday range:1.1542–1.1583. 52‑week range:1.01–1.19. Investing
- USD/EUR (the inverse): ~0.865 (mid‑market). Wise
- Latest ECB euro reference rate (most recent published):1.1561 (Friday, 7 Nov 2025). European Central Bank
Quick note: Many traders quote EUR/USD (dollars per euro). If you prefer USD/EUR (euros per dollar), it’s the inverse (1 ÷ EUR/USD).
What moved the euro–dollar today (10 Nov 2025)
1) Washington moves toward ending the shutdown
Risk appetite improved after a 60–40 procedural vote in the U.S. Senate to advance a House‑passed bill that would fund the government into late January, a key step toward ending the record shutdown. That tempered safe‑haven dollar demand and supported EUR/USD. Reuters
2) Eurozone sentiment softens
The Sentix investor morale index fell to −7.4 in November (from −5.4), below expectations, underscoring a fragile growth backdrop for the euro area. The data limited upside for the euro. Reuters
3) Central‑bank backdrop: Fed easing vs ECB on hold
- The Federal Reserve lowered the policy rate to 3.75%–4.00% on 29–30 Oct, while Chair Powell flagged a cautious, data‑dependent path for December. Markets remain split on another 2025 cut. Reuters
- By contrast, the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.00% at the end of October and officials say current settings are “at the right level” barring major deviations — a stance that modestly supports the euro. Reuters
4) Dollar tone into the weekend
On Friday the dollar eased as the shutdown delayed official jobs data and private indicators hinted at labor‑market cracks — another mild tailwind for EUR/USD at the margin. Reuters
Live price context — where we are in the range
- Spot is consolidating near 1.156 with today’s range 1.1542–1.1583; last week’s lows were set around 1.147–1.149 before buyers stepped in. Short‑term, the pair is mid‑range between early‑November lows (~1.147) and late‑October swing highs (~1.163–1.166). Investing
Near‑term trading map (no charts)
Immediate supports:
- 1.1540/50: intraday pivot area.
- 1.1490/1.1470: last week’s base. Investing
Immediate resistances:
- 1.1580/1.1600: intraday supply and round number.
- 1.1630–1.1660: late‑October highs; a break would signal momentum extension. Investing
Bias into Thursday: Tactically range‑bound 1.15–1.16 unless U.S. headlines materially shift risk sentiment or we get a pre‑CPI repricing in rates.
The week ahead — catalysts that can move USD/EUR
- Thursday, 13 Nov — U.S. CPI (Oct): A top‑tier risk event. A firm print would lift USD (downside for EUR/USD); a soft print likely weighs on USD and supports EUR/USD. (Release 08:30 ET.) Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed/Thu, 12–13 Nov — Euro area industrial production (Sep): Fresh read on the eurozone’s goods sector; upside surprises would aid the euro’s growth narrative. European Commission
- ECB speak: Vice‑President de Guindos today reiterated rates are appropriate “barring deviations”; any shift in tone from Governing Council members could nudge rate differentials and EUR/USD. Reuters
- Shutdown resolution timing: A finalized deal (and the return of U.S. data flow) could quickly re‑anchor dollar pricing around incoming macro prints. Reuters
Medium‑term forecast — where major desks see EUR/USD
A Reuters FX poll (Oct 31–Nov 5) shows strategists sticking to a mildly bullish euro view: median EUR/USD at $1.18 in three months, $1.20 in six, and $1.21 in 12 months. The stance reflects an assumed continuation of gradual Fed easing vs an ECB on hold, plus an improving global risk backdrop once U.S. data resumes. Reuters
Our take:
- Base case (3 months): 1.16–1.20 range, with 1.18 achievable if U.S. disinflation resumes and the Fed retains an easing bias while the ECB stays pat. Reuters
- Bullish euro scenario: Swift shutdown resolution + softer U.S. CPI and benign labor data (once published) could open 1.20. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Bearish euro scenario: Upside surprise in U.S. CPI or a more hawkish Fed tone into December would keep EUR/USD capped below 1.16 and refocus 1.15 / 1.147. Reuters
Why USD/EUR (and EUR/USD) matters today
- Policy gap: The Fed has already delivered back‑to‑back cuts (now 3.75%–4.00%) and is debating December; the ECB is on hold at 2.00%, with officials signalling “prudence.” Rate‑differential shifts are the single biggest macro driver for USD/EUR. Reuters
- Data vacuum fading: The shutdown has delayed U.S. releases, but CPI is scheduled for Thursday; once the data firehose returns, volatility around USD should pick up. Reuters
- Euro area growth pulse: Today’s Sentix miss warns against complacency on eurozone growth — keep an eye on industry data mid‑week. Reuters
Practical reference — today’s levels for readers
- EUR/USD: ~1.156, day range 1.1542–1.1583, 52‑week 1.01–1.19. Investing
- USD/EUR: ~0.865 mid‑market (inverse of EUR/USD). Wise
- ECB reference (latest published):1.1561 (7 Nov). Useful for accounting/hedging cutoffs that use central‑bank fixes. European Central Bank
FAQs
Is USD/EUR the same as EUR/USD?
They are inverses. If EUR/USD = 1.156, then USD/EUR ≈ 0.865 (1 ÷ 1.156). Quote conventions differ by broker and platform.
What typically moves USD/EUR in a given week?
Inflation prints (U.S. CPI/PCE), jobs data, central‑bank guidance, and risk appetite (e.g., political or fiscal headlines). This week, U.S. CPI (Thu) and Eurostat industry data (Wed/Thu) are the marquee releases. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sources & methodology
Spot levels and ranges are drawn from real‑time market pages and official reference series, combined with top‑tier news for context:
- Live/summary pricing & ranges: Investing.com EUR/USD; Reuters FX quote. Investing
- USD/EUR mid‑market check: Wise converter. Wise
- ECB reference rate: ECB euro reference exchange rates (official fix). European Central Bank
- Today’s market drivers: U.S. Senate shutdown progress; Eurozone Sentix; Fed & ECB policy signals; Dollar weekly tone. Reuters
- Event calendar: BLS CPI release schedule; Eurostat industrial production release calendar. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Consensus outlook: Reuters FX strategists’ poll (3m/6m/12m). Reuters
Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment advice. FX levels change quickly; please check live rates before making decisions.
