Updated: 12 November 2025
Gold at a glance (intraday)
Spot gold hovered around $4,124/oz by 10:22 GMT, while U.S. December futures traded near $4,130/oz, keeping the metal comfortably above the $4,100 handle. Earlier week gains were capped as the dollar steadied and traders awaited a pivotal U.S. House vote to reopen the government after the record shutdown. [1]
Gold price today: snapshot and context
- Spot price: ~$4,124/oz (10:22 GMT).
- Futures range: Day’s range for COMEX December (GCZ5) roughly $4,104–$4,152.
- Trend: Gold is up ~57% year-to-date after notching a record $4,381/oz on Oct 20. [2]
In FX and rates, the dollar edged modestly higher and the U.S. 10‑year yield hovered near ~4.08%, tempering bullion’s upside as traders still price a roughly two‑in‑three chance of a 25 bps Fed cut in December. The return of official U.S. data once the government reopens is also in focus. [3]
What’s moving gold today
1) Washington risk fades (for now). The U.S. House is slated to vote today on a funding deal after the Senate’s approval earlier in the week—an outcome that would end the longest U.S. government shutdown and clear the data backlog the Fed relies on. Markets are watching both the vote and the timeline for data releases. [4]
2) Rates and the dollar. Fed‑funds futures still imply a majority probability of a 25 bps cut at the Dec. 9–10 meeting, though officials have signaled the move isn’t guaranteed. A slightly firmer DXY and steady Treasuries are keeping bullion contained intraday. [5]
3) Macro pulse. Proxy labor data showed private employers shed >11,000 jobs per week through late October, reinforcing the picture of a cooling jobs market that has supported haven demand in recent weeks. [6]
Flows & positioning: ETFs and central banks
- ETF demand: Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) rose 0.41% to 1,046.36 tonnes on Tuesday, underscoring persistent investor dip‑buying even as prices consolidate above $4,100. [7]
- Central banks: The World Gold Council reported elevated Q3 central‑bank buying (≈220 t) and strong year‑to‑date accumulation, while China’s PBoC extended purchases for a 12th straight month in October—key structural supports for prices. [8]
Street views and medium‑term path
- ANZ’s near‑term map: After clearing consolidation, resistance sits at $4,160–$4,170 with support near $4,050; a break higher would re‑target the $4,380 record. [9]
- Banks’ targets:JPMorgan sees the cycle pushing gold above $5,000 by Q4 2026, while UBS raised its end‑2025 target to $3,800/oz earlier this fall—signals that the big houses still view dips as buyable amid policy and geopolitical uncertainty. [10]
India watch: MCX and retail rates (for local readers)
- On MCX, December gold futures traded around ₹1,24,200–₹1,24,300 per 10g during Wednesday hours, tracking global firmness. [11]
- Indicative retail rates (24K) across major cities remained near ₹1.24 lakh/10g, with modest day‑to‑day variations by market. [12]
Other precious metals (check‑in)
Silver hovered near $51.7/oz, while platinum and palladium were slightly softer alongside gold’s pause. [13]
Key levels to watch today
- Immediate support:$4,100–$4,105 (intraday futures range).
- Deeper support:$4,050 (ANZ).
- Resistance:$4,160–$4,170, then $4,380 (record). [14]
What’s next (catalysts)
- U.S. House vote outcome and timing of data resumption after the shutdown—both can quickly shift rate‑cut odds and the dollar. [15]
- Fed speak & Dec. meeting pricing: Markets currently imply a ~60–70% chance of a 25 bps cut in December; any hawkish pushback could buoy the dollar and cap gold. [16]
Bottom line
Gold is consolidating above $4,100/oz on 12 November 2025, supported by rate‑cut expectations, sticky central‑bank demand and ongoing macro uncertainty. A clean government‑reopening vote and clarity on incoming U.S. data could determine whether bullion retests $4,160–$4,170 or slips back toward $4,050 in the very near term. Longer‑term, major banks still lean bullish on dips. [17]
Disclosure: This article is for information and news purposes only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research and consider professional guidance before investing.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.cmegroup.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.businessday.co.za, 8. www.gold.org, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 12. www.livemint.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com
