Bitcoin extended its early‑week slide on Wednesday, briefly touching the ~$103,000 area as risk assets digested soft U.S. labor readings, a still‑unresolved (but improving) government shutdown backdrop, and a fresh caution from Morgan Stanley that crypto has entered the “fall” phase of its four‑year cycle. XRP and other majors also slipped after a choppy Veterans Day session, with market breadth skewing lower across large‑cap tokens. [1]
Key takeaways
- BTC near $103K intraday: Bitcoin fell back toward $103K after an overnight bounce, leaving it ~20% below October’s peak; ETH and XRP traded lower as well. [2]
- Morgan Stanley’s cycle view: Analysts led by Denny Galindo say crypto is in the “fall season” of Bitcoin’s four‑year rhythm and advise harvesting gains ahead of a possible “winter.” [3]
- Veterans Day pressure: BTC and XRP “reeled” into and through the holiday as traders reacted to weak jobs signals and macro jitters. [4]
- Macro drivers today: Treasuries firmed on labor softness, the dollar eased, and the House is slated to vote on a bill to end the record shutdown — all cross‑currents for crypto risk. [5]
Market snapshot (as of publication)
- BTC: ~$105,001 intraday; session range ~$102,460–$105,276 (chart above).
- ETH: ~$3,569; session range ~$3,405–$3,569.
- XRP: ~$2.44; session range ~$2.37–$2.46.
(Prices via market data; see live chart for BTC.)
What Morgan Stanley just said — and why it matters
Morgan Stanley published a fresh episode of its Thoughts on the Market podcast on Nov. 11, where research analyst Michael Cyprys and wealth‑management strategist Denny Galindo discussed crypto’s mainstreaming and the historical cycle that tends to govern Bitcoin. Galindo summarized the pattern as “three up years and one down year”, an observation that underpins the bank’s framing of a seasonal “spring/summer/fall/winter” progression. In short, we’re in “fall” — the harvest period when taking profits becomes prudent before a potential “winter.” [6]
Coverage across crypto media amplified the same message today, quoting Galindo’s seasonal analogy and the suggestion to secure gains ahead of heightened volatility. [7]
Why crypto is down today
- Labor softness & rates: A weaker‑than‑expected private‑payrolls pulse nudged markets to price a higher chance of a December Fed cut. Bonds rallied and the dollar eased — shifts that don’t always translate cleanly to near‑term crypto bids, especially with liquidity still uneven. [8]
- Policy overhang: Risk appetite remains tethered to Washington headlines. The Senate passed a measure to reopen the government; the House is due to vote today, a swing factor for broader sentiment. Equity markets have been quicker than crypto to respond positively. [9]
- Positioning & technicals: After multiple failed pushes above ~$107K–$110K this week, BTC slipped back toward the low‑$103Ks, erasing Monday’s rebound; CoinDesk tied the move to ongoing de‑risking in miners and large‑cap tokens. [10]
XRP’s swing: holiday selloff and ETF whispers
- Veterans Day dip: TheStreet highlighted that Bitcoin and XRP led a fresh downturn on Veterans Day (Nov. 11) as traders weighed soft jobs cues and mixed macro signals. [11]
- ETF speculation heating up — with caveats: Market watchers noted multiple spot XRP ETFs appearing on DTCC’s “active & pre‑launch” pages in recent days, and TheStreet reported the first U.S. spot XRP ETF could launch this week. But experts caution that DTCC listings aren’t SEC approvals; investors should look for an effective S‑1 and an exchange listing circular before calling “go.” [12]
Bottom line for XRP: Price action remains headline‑sensitive; confirm the regulatory paperwork (effective registration + exchange notice) before assuming an imminent launch. [13]
Levels and set‑ups traders are watching
- BTC: Analysts flagged resistance into ~$110.8K and support clustered near ~$103K (around the 50‑week SMA), while several desks say reclaiming ~$105K on strong volume would steady the tape. [14]
- XRP: After Tuesday’s slide, near‑term bears eye risk down to the mid‑$1s if momentum breaks; ETF headlines remain the joker in the deck. [15]
What’s next (today & this week)
- House vote on reopening the U.S. government (expected today, Nov. 12) — a risk sentiment swing factor. [16]
- Ongoing ETF docket watch: Keep an eye on any SEC/issuer filings and exchange circulars that would validate ETF launch timelines (for XRP or other altcoins). [17]
- Morgan Stanley’s “fall” framework: If realized, the bank’s seasonal map implies a bumpier Q4/Q1 path for crypto beta — making position sizing and risk controls more consequential. [18]
Quick FAQ
Why did Bitcoin drop today?
A mix of macro (softer jobs signals, policy uncertainty around the shutdown) and technical rejection near resistance, with capital rotating toward equities. [19]
What exactly did Morgan Stanley say?
In a Nov. 11 podcast, the firm reiterated Bitcoin’s four‑year pattern — “three up years and one down year” — and characterized the current phase as “fall”, when harvesting gains is sensible ahead of a potential “winter.” [20]
Is an XRP spot ETF approved?
Not necessarily. DTCC “pre‑launch” listings do not equal SEC approval. Look for an effective S‑1 and an exchange listing circular; until then, timelines remain provisional. [21]
Sources
Barron’s market wrap on today’s crypto decline; CoinDesk intraday color on BTC’s slip toward $103K; Morgan Stanley podcast/transcript; TheStreet’s Veterans Day selloff coverage; Stocktwits market brief (BTC ~$103k and “fall season” call); Reuters on jobs/dollar and the House vote; plus DTCC/XRP ETF reporting and context. [22]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.morganstanley.com, 4. roundtable.io, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. www.morganstanley.com, 7. en.bitcoinsistemi.com, 8. finance.yahoo.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.coindesk.com, 11. roundtable.io, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. cryptoslate.com, 14. stocktwits.com, 15. www.financemagnates.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. cryptoslate.com, 18. www.morganstanley.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.morganstanley.com, 21. cryptoslate.com, 22. www.barrons.com
