Polymarket’s U.S. Comeback: Shayne Coplan, UFC Deal and the New Arms Race in Blockchain Prediction Markets

Polymarket has quietly reopened to U.S. users in a limited beta, three years after a CFTC enforcement action pushed the platform offshore. ^[1]
Founder Shayne Coplan says blockchain let him build a “global market” from his bedroom, and now wants Polymarket to power everything from politics to insurance and AI-driven forecasting. ^[2]
TKO Group (UFC + Zuffa Boxing) has named Polymarket its exclusive prediction-market partner, bringing live prediction odds onto UFC broadcasts and boxing events from 2026. ^[3]
FanDuel and CME Group are launching “FanDuel Predicts” in December, offering event-based contracts in U.S. states where traditional online sports betting is still banned. ^[4]
Google Finance and Google Search are rolling out real‑time prediction odds from Polymarket and Kalshi, pushing blockchain prediction markets deep into mainstream finance tools. ^[5]

From Bedroom Experiment to Global Prediction Platform

When Shayne Coplan started Polymarket in 2020, he didn’t have a team, a war chest of venture capital, or a Wall Street pedigree. What he did have was a laptop, conviction in blockchain technology, and an idea: let markets, not pundits, price the future. ^[6]

Speaking this week at Cantor Fitzgerald’s crypto, AI and blockchain conference in Miami, Coplan described how open blockchain rails meant a solo founder could spin up a venue where anyone in the world could trade on real‑world events — elections, central‑bank moves, even celebrity gossip — using stablecoins. ^[7]

Instead of relying on polls or bookmakers’ odds, Polymarket lets users buy and sell “Yes/No” shares on questions like “Will the Fed cut rates in December?” or “Will Candidate X win the election?”. Prices close to $1.00 imply high probability; those near $0.00 imply long shots.

Coplan’s pitch is simple:

Markets aggregate information better than polls, because traders are staking capital on their beliefs.
Blockchain lowers the barrier to entry, so a small team can run a globally accessible marketplace.
Prediction markets are a new information format, where the “headline” isn’t a quote — it’s a live probability. ^[8]

That thesis is suddenly colliding with a much bigger backdrop: U.S. regulators, Wall Street giants and sports-entertainment brands all deciding, at the same time, that prediction markets are too big to ignore.

Polymarket Quietly Reopens to U.S. Users in Limited Beta

On November 13, Polymarket confirmed what industry watchers had been expecting: its U.S. venue is now live in a restricted beta phase, with a slice of invited users already placing real-money trades on regulated contracts. ^[9]

According to multiple reports:

The new U.S. exchange is fully functional, but access is capped while the company tests onboarding, liquidity and settlement under a more tightly supervised framework. ^[10]
Polymarket paid a $1.4 million penalty to the CFTC in 2022 and geofenced U.S. users, then spent the next three years rebuilding its regulatory footing. ^[11]
Earlier this year, it acquired QCX, a CFTC‑regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, giving it a compliant vehicle to operate event-based contracts in the U.S. market. ^[12]

CryptoNews reports that Polymarket is raising capital at a $12–15 billion valuation, after announcing an investment of up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. ^[13]

For now, the U.S. beta is deliberately small: think of it as a pressure test of sign-ups, KYC, liquidity incentives and compliance workflows. But if it holds, Polymarket will have pulled off a rare trick — moving from offshore “gray zone” to regulated U.S. infrastructure without losing its crypto-native edge.

UFC, Zuffa Boxing and the Fan Prediction Scoreboard

Just as the beta went live, another headline hit: TKO Group Holdings (NYSE: TKO) has signed a multi‑year partnership naming Polymarket the “Official and Exclusive Prediction Market Partner” of UFC and Zuffa Boxing. ^[14]

According to TKO’s announcement:

UFC and Zuffa Boxing will become the first combat-sports brands to bake prediction markets directly into the live fan experience.
Polymarket will power a real‑time Fan Prediction Scoreboard inside UFC broadcasts, visualizing how fans think fights will play out as the action unfolds. ^[15]
A new content series, “Matchup Predictions – Who’s Next?”, will feature fan‑driven markets on potential future matchups after fighters record big wins. ^[16]
Polymarket will also be the first official brand partner of Zuffa Boxing, which debuts in January 2026, with all events set to stream in the U.S. on Paramount+. ^[17]

TKO notes that billions of dollars’ worth of predictions have been traded on Polymarket in 2025 alone, underscoring how big this data stream has become. ^[18]

In practical terms, this deal turns prediction-odds — once a niche DeFi curiosity — into on‑screen graphics in front of millions of mainstream sports fans. It’s also a clever growth loop: watching a fight, seeing the live probability swing, and then jumping into the app to move the line yourself.

FanDuel, CME Group and the Wall Streetification of Prediction Markets

Polymarket isn’t alone. Traditional gambling and derivatives heavyweights are arriving en masse.

Flutter Entertainment, owner of FanDuel, has announced FanDuel Predicts, a new U.S. prediction‑markets app launching in December in partnership with CME Group. ^[19]

Key features, based on public releases and analyst coverage:

FanDuel Predicts will offer event‑based contracts on outcomes like professional football, basketball, baseball and hockey games.
These contracts are structured as CME‑cleared derivatives, not conventional sports bets, allowing the product to operate in U.S. states that still ban online sports wagering. ^[20]
CME brings decades of derivatives expertise, while FanDuel contributes tens of millions of U.S. users and a huge sports‑betting funnel. ^[21]
Flutter has simultaneously issued a cautious earnings outlook but is pitching prediction markets as a major new growth channel that opens up half of the U.S. that can’t yet use its sportsbook products. ^[22]

Competition doesn’t stop there. Reports indicate that:

Gemini has filed to run a designated contract market for its own prediction products. ^[23]
Kalshi, long approved by the CFTC, has expanded into sports and already partners with Robinhood and other mainstream platforms. ^[24]

The result is a rapidly crowding field where:

Kalshi plays the role of regulated, fiat‑native incumbent.
Polymarket is the crypto‑first upstart, rebuilt around U.S. compliance.
FanDuel + CME are the late‑entry giants with distribution and derivatives muscle.

This isn’t just a consumer story; it’s a classic platform war — liquidity, licensing, and UX all racing to lock in market share.

Google Brings Prediction Odds Into Search and Finance

One of the most important moves didn’t come from a betting or crypto company at all, but from Google.

Last week, Google announced that Google Search and Google Finance will begin showing live probabilities from Polymarket and Kalshi. Initial roll‑out is to Search Labs users in the coming weeks. ^[25]

In practice, this means:

You’ll be able to type queries like “chance of U.S. recession next year” or “Who will win the 2028 U.S. election?” and see market‑implied odds alongside traditional charts and news.
Users can track how probabilities change over time and compare them against stock indices, macro data and other financial series. ^[26]

For prediction markets, this is a huge legitimacy signal:

It frames markets like Polymarket not as fringe betting apps, but as data sources plugged into mainstream financial dashboards.
It helps regulators and policymakers see prediction markets as informational infrastructure, not just speculative playgrounds.

Combined with ICE’s prospective multi‑billion‑dollar investment in Polymarket and CME’s partnership with FanDuel, it’s clear that Wall Street and Big Tech now view event contracts as a serious asset class. ^[27]

The Regulatory Line: Betting, Derivatives and State Pushback

None of this is happening in a vacuum. U.S. regulators are still figuring out where prediction markets sit on the spectrum between gambling and financial derivative.

Recent developments:

The CFTC’s 2022 settlement with Polymarket forced the platform to shut down unregistered U.S. markets and pay a $1.4m fine, setting an early precedent that event contracts can fall under derivatives regulation. ^[28]
Nevada regulators have moved against prediction‑style products, prompting FanDuel to surrender its license and DraftKings to pull an application, amid concerns that event contracts amounted to unauthorized gambling. ^[29]
DailyCoin notes that prediction markets are legal in the U.S., but mostly under tightly defined frameworks, either as CFTC‑regulated exchanges or state‑level gambling offerings, with crypto‑based platforms navigating evolving guidance. ^[30]

Polymarket’s current strategy — acquiring a CFTC‑licensed exchange, limiting U.S. access to compliant markets, and using stablecoins within a regulated structure — is basically a live experiment in how far a crypto‑native platform can go while staying inside the regulatory rails.

Similarly, FanDuel Predicts is effectively a case study in rebranding bets as derivatives, shifting supervision from state gambling boards to federal commodities rules.

Expect more friction:

States that rely on betting tax revenue may push back against federally regulated alternatives that bypass local licensing.
Federal agencies will face pressure to clarify the boundaries between information markets, speculative trading and consumer gambling.

Why Shayne Coplan Thinks Prediction Markets Beat Polls and Sportsbooks

Behind all the deals and regulatory footnotes is a much bigger question: why do prediction markets matter at all?

At the Miami conference, Coplan argued that:

Polls are noisy snapshots, often biased by sampling and response dynamics.
Sportsbooks operate as “the house,” setting lines to balance risk and profit — not necessarily to maximize informational accuracy. ^[31]
Prediction markets, by contrast, let anyone with an opinion and capital move the price; the resulting odds are a continuous, market‑tested probability for the event.

He also sees prediction markets as tools for:

Public policy – e.g., markets on outcomes with or without a policy change can give lawmakers a quantified read on expected impact. ^[32]
Insurance and risk management – companies could hedge “exotic” risks via transparent markets instead of opaque bilateral deals. ^[33]
AI agents – autonomous trading bots that monitor news, detect mispricings and automatically trade prediction markets as a way to encode their beliefs about the future. ^[34]

In Coplan’s view, the long tail is where things get interesting: niche markets on everything from weather anomalies to software launches. They may not drive huge volume individually, but together they create a living probability layer over reality.

Risks for Traders and Everyday Users

With so much hype — and so many heavyweight brands piling in — it’s easy to forget that prediction markets are still risky financial products.

Some key risk factors to keep in mind:

Regulatory risk: Rules can change. Contracts might be delisted or restricted if regulators decide they cross a line.
Counterparty/platform risk: Even regulated platforms depend on robust custody, risk management and tech operations. Outages or legal issues can disrupt markets.
Event risk: A contract that looks “obvious” can still go to zero. Shocks — from upset election results to controversial judging in combat sports — can wipe out positions.
Volatility: Prices can move violently as new information breaks, especially in thin or highly speculative markets. ^[35]

Nothing in this article should be taken as investment, trading or gambling advice. If you decide to participate, treat prediction markets like any other high‑risk speculative product: size positions modestly, understand the rules, and be prepared to lose your stake.

What Today’s Moves Signal for 2026 and Beyond

Taken together, the November 13 news cycle paints a clear picture:

Polymarket is no longer a scrappy outsider — it’s a heavily backed platform with a path to U.S. compliance, marquee sports partnerships and deep Wall Street interest. ^[36]
Legacy betting and derivatives giants refuse to cede the space, with FanDuel, CME and others designing products that look and feel like bets but live under derivatives law. ^[37]
Big Tech is normalizing prediction odds by baking Polymarket and Kalshi data into Google’s consumer‑facing products. ^[38]

For Shayne Coplan, the journey from “kid with a laptop” to partner of UFC and potential $15 billion unicorn is already remarkable. But the real test begins now: Can Polymarket scale in the U.S. without losing the open, experimental energy that made prediction markets compelling in the first place?

For everyone else — traders, policymakers, sports fans and tech giants — prediction markets are quickly shifting from curiosity to core infrastructure for how we read the future.

Easy Prediction Market Arbitrage (Polymarket/Limitless)