IREN Limited (IREN) Stock Plunges 12% as AI ‘Neocloud’ Trade Stumbles – Despite $9.7B Microsoft Deal (14 November 2025)

IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN) – the Australian-born Bitcoin miner turned renewable-powered AI data‑center operator – is having another wild session on Friday, 14 November 2025.

Despite landing a landmark US$9.7 billion AI cloud contract with Microsoft earlier this month and reporting record quarterly results last week, the stock is down sharply again today as investors reassess the risks behind its breakneck expansion.

IREN stock today: sharp selloff after a parabolic year

As of Friday afternoon, IREN shares are trading around $48.65, down approximately 12.7% over the last 24 hours. That move caps a bruising week in which the stock has fallen about 35.8%, even though it remains up nearly 300% over the past year after a massive 2025 rally. ^[1]

Key trading stats as of 14 November 2025: ^[2]

Price: ~$48.65
1‑day move: –12.66%
1‑week change: –35.78%
1‑month change: –23.06%
1‑year change: +298.77%
52‑week range: ~$5.13 – $76.87
Market cap: ≈ $13.2 billion

A MarketBeat note this morning highlighted that IREN shares “opened at $48.65 on Friday” and are now trading more than a third below their mid‑October all‑time high near $74.15, underscoring just how fast sentiment has flipped on one of 2025’s hottest AI‑adjacent names. ^[3]

Neocloud selloff: CoreWeave and Nebius pain spills into IREN

Today’s weakness in IREN isn’t happening in isolation. The entire “neocloud” / AI‑infrastructure basket is under pressure following a string of cautious analyst notes and guidance resets.

A TipRanks report this week pointed to CoreWeave’s 14% plunge after Wall Street slashed price targets despite the company beating Q3 expectations and doubling revenue to $1.37 billion. CoreWeave trimmed its Q4 guidance, citing constraints on compute capacity and project timing – a reminder that even hyperscale AI demand can run into bottlenecks. ^[4]

In that same piece, TipRanks flagged that: ^[5]

Shares of Nebius fell nearly 4% intraday despite 355% revenue growth and narrowing losses.
IREN stock dropped more than 4% during the session referenced – and has fallen much further since.
IREN has already swung from a loss to a Q1 FY26 EPS of roughly $1.07, yet its stock keeps sliding as analysts debate the risks and rewards of its new US$9.7 billion Microsoft contract.

Taken together, the message from the market is clear: investors are starting to question how sustainable the current AI‑infrastructure spending boom really is – and whether the multi‑billion‑dollar build‑outs at companies like IREN can deliver durable, high‑quality earnings rather than just spectacular headlines.

The Microsoft AI cloud megadeal: transformative, but not risk‑free

The centerpiece of the IREN investment story – and the catalyst for much of its 2025 surge – is its US$9.7 billion, five‑year AI cloud contract with Microsoft, announced on 3 November 2025. ^[6]

According to IREN’s own releases and regulatory filings, plus reporting from Reuters, StockTitan and others: ^[7]

Contract size & term:
- US$9.7 billion in GPU cloud services over an average five‑year term.
Prepayment:
- Microsoft will prepay about 20% of the contract value, providing upfront capital support.
Capacity & hardware:
- The deal will underpin roughly 200 MW of critical IT load at IREN’s 750 MW Childress, Texas campus, with new liquid‑cooled data centers tailored for high‑density AI workloads.
- IREN has a separate US$5.8 billion equipment agreement with Dell to source NVIDIA’s next‑generation GB300‑series GPUs and related infrastructure.
ARR & GPU roadmap:
- As of Q1 FY26, IREN is targeting US$3.4 billion in AI Cloud annualized run‑rate revenue (ARR) by the end of 2026, supported by expansion to roughly 140,000 GPUs across its platform. ^[8]
- About US$1.9 billion of that ARR is expected to come from the Microsoft deal alone once fully ramped. ^[9]

Independent coverage from outlets like Reuters, Windows Central, AP News and Investopedia has framed the partnership as a win‑win: Microsoft secures scarce NVIDIA GPU capacity without building new data centers from scratch, while IREN monetizes its 2.9 GW of renewable‑backed power and data‑center footprint across North America at much higher margins than traditional Bitcoin mining. ^[10]

However, several analysts and commentators also stress the concentration risk:

The Microsoft contract will be heavily concentrated at a single campus (Childress) and reliant on one massive customer. ^[11]
To support the buildout, IREN is layering on significant convertible debt and financing, raising questions about leverage and execution if GPU deployment or customer ramp‑up is delayed. ^[12]

That tension — between structurally huge upside and very real execution risk — is at the heart of today’s debate around IREN’s valuation.

Q1 FY26 results: record numbers, but the “quality of earnings” debate heats up

On 6 November 2025, IREN reported Q1 FY26 results (quarter ended 30 September 2025) that, on the surface, looked explosive. ^[13]

From IREN’s 10‑Q filing and earnings release: ^[14]

Revenue:
- US$240.3 million, up from US$52.8 million a year earlier (≈ +355% YoY).
- Driven primarily by Bitcoin mining revenue of US$232.9 million, with AI Cloud services contributing US$7.3 million – still only about 3% of total revenue.
Net income:
- US$384.6 million, versus a loss in the prior year; net income margin around 160%, boosted by non‑cash fair‑value gains.
EPS:
- Diluted EPS around US$1.07–1.08, crushing consensus estimates near US$0.15. ^[15]
Adjusted EBITDA:
- Around US$91.7 million, implying a 38% adjusted EBITDA margin, down from 65% in the prior quarter as investment ramps. ^[16]

Despite the headline beat, the market reaction was brutal — IREN shares fell more than 12% following the report, according to multiple news and transcript summaries. ^[17]

Why the disconnect?

Non‑cash earnings:
Analysis from Simply Wall St and others highlights that a large portion of IREN’s profit stems from non‑cash items, including unrealized gains on financial instruments and tax effects, rather than purely from recurring operational cash flows. ^[18]
Heavy capex and financing:
The Microsoft deal and broader GPU rollout require billions of dollars in capital, funded via a mix of customer prepayments, cash on hand, operational cash flow, and sizeable convertible note issuance — all of which add complexity and risk. ^[19]
Bitcoin dependence remains:
While the AI cloud story grabs the headlines, Q1 revenue is still overwhelmingly driven by Bitcoin mining, meaning the business is heavily exposed to crypto price cycles even as it invests aggressively in long‑duration AI infrastructure. ^[20]

This mix has led some commentators to warn that IREN’s earnings are of “questionable quality,” not in the sense of being inaccurate, but because GAAP net income may overstate the underlying cash‑generating power of the core business. ^[21]

Technical picture: 400% rally meets a critical support zone

From a technical standpoint, today’s drop is flashing bright red on trader dashboards.

A technical note from Verified Investing this morning framed the move as an “IREN stock crash”, arguing that the name’s roughly 400–500% year‑to‑date rally is now facing an “ultimate test” around the US$44–45 support zone. ^[22]

The note highlights that: ^[23]

The stock has broken below a prior rising channel, with today’s ~12% slide amplifying downside momentum.
A sustained break below roughly US$44.50 could confirm a deeper correction, while a bounce from that level might keep the longer‑term uptrend intact.
With IREN’s daily volatility near 16% and a historically high beta, any move around that support level is likely to be violent in either direction.

For short‑term traders, this makes IREN a classic “high‑beta battlefield” name: big potential swings, but little room for complacency.

Institutional flows today: some funds buy the dip, others lock in profits

Alongside price action, new 13F‑related updates published today (14 November 2025) reveal how some institutional investors are positioning around IREN.

Evolution Wealth Advisors boosts stake

According to a MarketBeat report released this morning: ^[24]

Evolution Wealth Advisors LLC increased its IREN position by 66.5% in Q2,
Now holding 128,550 shares worth about US$1.87 million,
Representing roughly 0.07% of the company.

The same filing roundup notes that several other funds — including Situational Awareness LP, Allianz Asset Management, Trexquant, Private Advisor Group and Mizuho Markets Americas — have also significantly increased their positions over recent quarters, contributing to institutional ownership of just over 41% of outstanding shares. ^[25]

SBI Securities trims exposure

In contrast, a separate MarketBeat alert today shows that SBI Securities Co. Ltd. reduced its stake: ^[26]

SBI cut holdings by 22.5%, selling 15,659 shares in Q2.
It now owns 53,990 shares of IREN, valued at about US$787,000.

Taken together, the latest institutional data suggests no clear consensus: some funds appear to be doubling down on the AI‑and‑Bitcoin hybrid story, while others are taking profits or de‑risking after the extraordinary run‑up.

Analyst sentiment: from “game-changer” to “sell”

Wall Street and independent analysts are likewise split on IREN heading into year‑end.

Bullish: “Game‑changer” and AI supercycle thesis

A new Seeking Alpha article published today, titled “IREN: Microsoft Deal Is A Game-Changer (Rating Upgrade)”, argues that the company’s AI data center pivot, GPU cloud demand, and Microsoft contract collectively justify a rating upgrade and could power a multi‑year “AI cloud supercycle.” ^[27]

Key points from recent bullish research pieces include: ^[28]

IREN is evolving from a pure‑play Bitcoin miner into a vertically integrated, 100% renewable‑powered AI data center operator, with locations across North America.
Q1 FY26 revenue growth of 355% and a massive net income swing are seen as evidence of operating leverage as the business scales.
The Microsoft deal, plus additional multi‑year contracts with firms like Together AI and Fireworks AI, position IREN as a key GPU capacity provider in an environment where AI compute is structurally scarce.

Several sell‑side houses cited in MarketBeat coverage – including B. Riley, Canaccord Genuity, Bernstein and UBS – maintain Buy or Outperform ratings, with some hiking price targets into the US$70–90 range earlier this month. ^[29]

Bearish / cautious: valuation, earnings quality, and single‑customer risk

On the other side, a Nasdaq‑hosted Fintel note dated 7 November 2025 reported that HC Wainwright & Co. has maintained a Sell rating on IREN, even after the Microsoft announcement, with an average one‑year price target around US$62 (set when the stock was trading near that level). ^[30]

Cautious voices emphasize: ^[31]

The concentration of AI cloud revenue in a single mega‑customer and campus (Microsoft at Childress).
The capital intensity and leverage required to purchase billions of dollars of NVIDIA hardware.
The non‑cash nature of a large portion of current GAAP earnings.
The risk that if AI infrastructure spending cools or customers renegotiate, the downside could be severe after such a huge rerating.

In short, the bull case sees IREN as an AI infrastructure powerhouse in the making; the bear case worries it may be over‑earning on paper while taking on big, lumpy risks in the real world.

Company background: from green Bitcoin miner to AI cloud specialist

For readers just tuning in: ^[32]

IREN started life as Iris Energy, founded in 2018 by brothers Daniel and Will Roberts with a focus on Bitcoin mining powered by renewable energy.
It listed on Nasdaq in 2021 and rebranded to IREN Limited in late 2024 to reflect its broader next‑gen data center and AI infrastructure focus.
Today, the company operates or is building out multiple sites across North America (including Sweetwater and Childress in Texas, plus locations in British Columbia) with around:
- 810 MW operational,
- 2,100 MW under construction, and
- >1,000 MW in development,
  for a total of 2,910 MW of power secured.
Its business model now blends Bitcoin mining + AI cloud + GPU colocation + build‑to‑suit data centers, all marketed as powered by 100% clean or renewable energy (including via renewable energy certificates).

What today’s moves mean for investors

From a news standpoint, 14 November 2025 brings three main developments for IREN:

Another double‑digit price drop, taking weekly losses to more than a third, even as the stock remains massively up year‑to‑date. ^[33]
Fresh institutional filings showing some funds significantly increasing exposure (Evolution Wealth Advisors) while others reduce (SBI Securities), highlighting divided conviction. ^[34]
New analysis and opinion pieces – from bullish “game‑changer” takes to skeptical “questionable earnings quality” critiques – sharpening the debate over whether IREN’s AI pivot is the start of a sustainable supercycle or an overextended story stock. ^[35]

For long‑term investors and traders alike, the key questions now are:

Can IREN execute flawlessly on the Microsoft contract and other AI deals while managing leverage and build‑out risk?
Will AI Cloud revenue scale fast enough to justify today’s valuation and offset the inherent volatility of Bitcoin mining?
Does the current correction represent a healthy reset after a 400–500% run, or the start of a more painful de‑rating if AI infra enthusiasm cools?

Nothing in this article is financial advice, and IREN is clearly a high‑risk, high‑volatility name. Anyone considering the stock should look closely at the company’s filings, cash‑flow profile, debt load, and customer concentration, and weigh those against their own risk tolerance and time horizon.

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