Tripadvisor, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRIP) returned to investors’ good graces on Friday after Mizuho upgraded the online travel company and lifted its price target, signaling Wall Street is starting to warm to an aggressive restructuring that includes layoffs, a Viator merger and a deeper bet on AI-powered travel experiences. [1]
As of mid‑day Friday, Tripadvisor shares were trading around $15.00, up roughly 1.5% from Thursday’s close at $14.78, though still well below their 52‑week high of $20.16. [2] The bounce follows a bruising 6.75% slide on Thursday, when the stock sold off with the broader market despite recently reporting better‑than‑expected Q3 earnings. [3]
Mizuho turns less bearish on Tripadvisor
In a note published early Friday, Mizuho analyst Lloyd Walmsley upgraded Tripadvisor from “Underperform” to “Neutral” and raised his price target from $14.00 to $17.00, citing new visibility on cost savings and a clearer strategic pivot toward the company’s higher‑growth experiences business. [4]
Key points from Mizuho’s call: [5]
- Tripadvisor has launched an $85 million cost‑reduction plan, equivalent to roughly 25% of projected 2025 EBITDA.
- Trailing 12‑month EBITDA stands at about $167 million, suggesting room for meaningful margin expansion if the savings are delivered.
- Management is shifting focus away from a weaker hotel metasearch segment and toward its Experiences business (largely Viator) and dining brand TheFork, which now represent close to 60% of revenue.
- TheFork is under strategic review and could be worth up to $5 per share, according to Mizuho’s estimate.
- Tripadvisor is preparing to launch a new AI‑native travel product in the coming weeks, which the firm describes as an “interesting call option” on future growth.
Mizuho’s fresh $17 target implies roughly 13–15% upside from current levels and is in line with broader Street expectations: MarketScreener data show a mean analyst target of about $17.6 and an average rating of “Hold.” [6]
Other recent analyst moves underline how divided Wall Street remains:
- B. Riley trimmed its target from $21 to $18 earlier this week while maintaining a “Neutral” stance. [7]
- Across brokers, MarketBeat counts 1 Buy, 7 Hold and 4 Sell ratings, for a consensus recommendation of “Reduce” and an average target near $16.4. [8]
- GuruFocus data show an even higher average target around $17.9, with a proprietary “fair value” estimate above $22, suggesting the stock screens as undervalued on some long‑term models. [9]
In short: Friday’s upgrade doesn’t turn Tripadvisor into a Street darling overnight – but it does mark a notable shift from outright bearishness toward cautious optimism.
A company in upheaval: Viator merger, layoffs and activist pressure
The positive rating change comes barely a week after Tripadvisor unveiled one of the most sweeping restructurings in its history.
On November 6, the company announced plans to: [10]
- Merge its core Tripadvisor brand with its Viator experiences unit, consolidating overlapping teams in engineering, product and technology.
- Cut about 20% of its global workforce, or roughly 600 employees based on a 2024 headcount of around 2,860.
- Target at least $85 million in annualized gross cost savings by 2027.
- Reposition itself as an “experience‑led and AI‑enabled” company, with deeper integration of AI across discovery, planning and booking.
Boston.com reported that CEO Matt Goldberg described the overhaul as a push toward a “simpler, leaner, and faster‑moving organization” and confirmed that Tripadvisor and Viator teams will be combined while AI is embedded more deeply into consumer products, including integrations with ChatGPT. [11]
The restructuring did not come out of nowhere. Activist investors, led by Starboard Value, which holds about 9% of Tripadvisor, have been pressing for radical change. In October, Starboard CEO Jeff Smith publicly urged the company to consider selling TheFork – its European restaurant‑booking platform – and potentially explore broader strategic alternatives. [12]
Separately, PYMNTS and others have reported that activists including Palliser Capital have pushed Tripadvisor to simplify its structure and revisit a possible sale of some or all of the business, reviving themes that first surfaced around a 2024 takeover approach from Apollo Global Management. [13]
Friday’s Mizuho note essentially frames this upheaval as an opportunity: if Tripadvisor can execute on layoffs, integration and AI product launches without derailing growth, the earnings power of the business could look materially better by the time the cost savings fully show up. [14]
Q3 2025: Earnings beat, revenue mixed, experiences shine
Under the hood, the latest quarter helps explain why analysts are willing to give Tripadvisor another look – and also why the market has been hesitant.
For Q3 2025, Tripadvisor reported: [15]
- Revenue: $553 million, up about 3.9–4% year‑over‑year, but slightly below consensus estimates near $563 million.
- GAAP net income:$53 million (vs. $39 million a year ago).
- GAAP EPS:$0.43 (vs. $0.27).
- Adjusted EPS:$0.65, beating the Street’s ~$0.55 expectation.
Segment trends were sharply divergent:
- Brand Tripadvisor (core site & media): Revenue fell around 8% to about $235 million, hurt by “stronger than anticipated traffic headwinds,” particularly in hotel metasearch as Google continues to dominate travel search. [16]
- Viator (Experiences): Gross booking value climbed 15% to roughly $1.3 billion, while segment revenue grew about 9% to $294 million, benefiting from post‑pandemic demand for curated tours and activities. [17]
- TheFork (Dining): Revenue surged 28% to $63 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins around 22%, nearly double last year’s level. [18]
Management’s full‑year 2025 outlook calls for 3–4% consolidated revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margins of 16–18%, backed by roughly $1.2 billion in cash and about $160 million still available under a share‑repurchase authorization. [19]
Taken together, the quarter shows a company shrinking in its legacy core but growing quickly in experiences and restaurants – exactly the areas it is now doubling down on with the Viator integration and potential TheFork deal.
Earnings quality: why cash flow is in focus
Another theme surfacing in Friday’s coverage is the quality of Tripadvisor’s earnings.
A Simply Wall St analysis, syndicated via Yahoo Finance, highlighted that for the year to September 2025 the company’s accrual ratio sits around –0.27, meaning free cash flow significantly exceeds reported profit. Investors often view a negative accrual ratio as a sign that earnings are backed by real cash, not accounting noise. [20]
That matters right now: Tripadvisor is about to absorb restructuring charges, pay severance and invest in AI while traffic to its core brand remains under pressure. Solid cash generation gives it more flexibility to:
- Fund AI product development and data partnerships. [21]
- Support share repurchases if management chooses to lean on buybacks. [22]
- Manage integration risk as it folds Viator into the main Tripadvisor business. [23]
For value‑oriented investors, this combination – modest growth, improving margins and strong cash conversion – is precisely what Friday’s upgrade is trying to capture.
Brand and demand: Solo‑travel campaign with Moxy Hotels
Away from spreadsheets and restructurings, Tripadvisor is also leaning into its role as a demand engine for partners.
On Friday, Marriott’s Moxy Hotels and Tripadvisor launched “Any Ones Welcome”, a social‑first campaign designed to celebrate solo travel across the UK and Germany. [24]
According to campaign materials based on Tripadvisor data: [25]
- More than 60% of surveyed Tripadvisor travellers say they are now travelling solo more than they used to.
- Many cite meeting new people and socializing as key highlights of those trips.
The initiative, led by Publicis London, uses TikTok and Meta to showcase Moxy’s bars, lobbies and communal spaces as hubs where solo travellers can “sip, play & dance” and connect with others. For Tripadvisor, partnerships like this reinforce its positioning not just as a review site but as a discovery and conversion platform for experience‑driven brands.
Stock snapshot: volatility with a potentially improving narrative
Here’s where Tripadvisor stands after Friday’s early move: [26]
- Price: ~$15.00 (prior close: $14.78).
- Change vs yesterday: roughly +1.5% after a –6.75% drop on Thursday.
- 52‑week range:$10.43–$20.16.
- Street view: consensus between “Reduce” and “Hold,” with average 12‑month targets clustered around $16–18.
- Select upside scenarios: GuruFocus’ GF Value model suggests fair value above $22, while Simply Wall St’s narrative points to a fair value near $18.16, implying mid‑teens to high‑double‑digit upside depending on assumptions. [27]
For now, Tripadvisor remains firmly a “show‑me” story: the market wants proof that layoffs, AI bets and a greater reliance on Viator and TheFork can more than offset persistent weakness in the legacy brand and rising competition from Google, Booking and Expedia. [28]
What investors will be watching next
Over the coming quarters, key catalysts for TRIP include:
- Execution on cost cuts
- Can management deliver the promised $85 million in gross annual savings by 2027 without harming product quality or innovation? [29]
- Integration of Tripadvisor and Viator
- Synergies in engineering and marketing could boost margins – but any disruption to Viator’s momentum would be a red flag. [30]
- Strategic outcome for TheFork
- A sale at or above Mizuho’s implied $5 per‑share valuation could unlock value and simplify the story; a muddled process could do the opposite. [31]
- AI product rollout and adoption
- Investors will look for early usage data on the upcoming AI‑native travel planner, as well as traction from partnerships with Perplexity and Microsoft Azure’s AI Agent Service. [32]
- Macro and travel demand
- Slower transatlantic travel and broader market volatility could pressure bookings, even as experiences and premium dining remain bright spots. [33]
Bottom line
On November 14, 2025, the Tripadvisor story took a small but meaningful turn: after weeks of activist agitation, restructuring headlines and a sharp share‑price slide, one of its more skeptical covering analysts blinked and moved to the sidelines rather than staying outright negative.
For long‑term investors, Friday’s Mizuho upgrade doesn’t erase the risks around execution, competition and macro travel demand. But it does underscore a new reality: if Tripadvisor can successfully reinvent itself as an AI‑driven experiences platform while harvesting substantial cost savings, the current share price may not fully reflect its potential earnings power. [34]
As always, anyone considering TRIP should treat this as general information, not personalized investment advice, and weigh the stock against their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio needs.
References
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