Updated: November 16, 2025
Key takeaways
- Price & valuation: XOM last traded at $119.29, up ~0.4% at the Friday close; TTM P/E ~17.3 and forward dividend $1.03 quarterly (annualized $4.12), implying a ~3.45% yield at the latest price. 52‑week range: $97.80–$123.21. 1
- November headlines moving the story: New Greece natural‑gas farm‑in, CEO commentary on oil & gas’ long‑run role, and a high‑profile warning on the EU sustainability law; plus Guyana output hit a record 900,000 bpd and the Q4 dividend was raised and went ex‑dividend on Nov 14 (payable Dec 10). 2
- Macro backdrop: Brent has been hovering in the low‑$60s this month amid oversupply worries, punctuated by a brief jump on Nov 14 after disruptions in Russia. That keeps near‑term earnings leverage muted but favors low‑cost barrels such as Guyana and Permian. 3
- Street tone: Fresh Piper Sandler target lift to $144 (Overweight) highlights confidence in integration and cash returns despite soft crude. 4
Where XOM stands today
At the most recent close, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) finished $119.29 (Fri., Nov 14, UTC), up ~0.42% on the day. At that price, the forward dividend yield is ~3.45% on the announced $1.03 quarterly payout. Recent snapshots peg the TTM P/E around 17–17.5 and the stock sits within 3–4% of its 52‑week high ($123.21). 1
Capital returns: Exxon lifted its Q4 dividend to $1.03 (up 4%), ex‑date Nov 14, payable Dec 10, and reiterated this year’s buyback pace. The company has now grown annual DPS for 43 consecutive years. 5
The November news that matters
1) New gas exposure in Greece (Eastern Med). On Nov 6, Exxon and partners Energean and HELLENiQ signed a farm‑in for a 60% stake in a Western Greece gas block, expanding Exxon’s European gas footprint at a time the U.S. is vying to replace Russian flows. What looks small near‑term is strategically aligned with LNG/gas optionality and regional energy security. 2
2) CEO on hydrocarbons’ long‑run role.Darren Woods told Reuters hydrocarbons will play a “critical” role for a long time—perhaps with less combustion use over time—signaling Exxon’s intent to monetize molecules in chemicals, materials and lower‑emissions businesses alongside fuels. This underpins a portfolio tilt toward durable, low‑cost barrels and value‑added products. 6
3) Regulatory overhang in Europe. Also this month, Exxon warned the EU’s sustainability due‑diligence regime could force it to scale back or exit some European activity if implemented as drafted—keeping policy risk on the radar for 2026 planning. 7
4) Guyana keeps beating records.Nov 12: Gross output on the Stabroek block hit 900,000 bpd across multiple FPSOs, with capacity expected to reach ~1.7 million bpd once eight developments are online later in the decade—cementing Guyana as Exxon’s premier low‑breakeven growth engine. 8
5) Board refresh. Former Phillips 66 chief Gregory Garland joined Exxon’s board effective Nov 3, adding deep downstream and chemicals experience right as the company leans harder into high‑value product solutions. 9
Earnings, cash, and what Q3 told us
In its Oct 31 update, Exxon reported Q3 2025 EPS of $1.76 and $14.8B in cash from operations, returned $9.4B to shareholders (dividends + buybacks), and maintained elite balance‑sheet metrics (net debt‑to‑capital ~9.5%). Management also reiterated a 2025 buyback program and highlighted project momentum (Yellowtail early; record Permian volumes). 5
Two investor‑relevant read‑throughs from Q3:
- Resilience at lower oil prices: With Brent in the $60s lately, Exxon’s scale and cost structure kept margins serviceable, aided by advantaged barrels in Guyana and the Permian. 5
- Product Solutions push: Management continues shifting assets toward higher‑value molecules and refinery upgrades—supporting returns through cycles while chemical margins remain at the lower end of the range. 10
Macro backdrop: Oil, policy, and what it means for XOM
Crude has seesawed in November: Brent in the low‑$60s on oversupply worries, with a pop on Nov 14 after a Russian export disruption. If prices stay near current levels, 2026 free‑cash‑flow leverage is smaller, but Exxon’s low‑breakeven slate should still out‑earn peers with higher cost barrels. 3
On policy, the EU corporate sustainability rule set remains a swing factor for capital allocation in Europe; management’s public stance ups the odds of portfolio pruning there if compliance costs and liabilities look outsized. 7
Street positioning & sentiment
Piper Sandler raised its XOM target to $144 (Overweight) last week, reflecting confidence in integration of acquired Permian assets, improving structural costs, and durable cash returns. Consensus P/E and target ranges remain anchored by mid‑cycle oil price assumptions and steady Guyana ramps. 4
12‑month XOM forecast (scenarios)
To keep this grounded in what the market is using today, we anchor on consensus FY‑2025 EPS around $7.7 (changes with each update) and apply cycle‑normal multiples. This is not investment advice; it’s a range based on public inputs and current oil strips.
- Base case (Brent ~$62–$65; chemicals improve modestly):16× on ~$7.7 EPS ⇒ ~$123 fair value (roughly in line with the 52‑week high). Dividend (~3.4–3.6%) and buybacks add low‑single‑digit total‑return support. 11
- Bull case (Brent ~$70+, faster Guyana ramp, refining tailwinds):18× on ~$7.7–$7.9 EPS ⇒ $138–$142, broadly consistent with the Street’s high‑end targets (e.g., $144). 4
- Bear case (Brent sub‑$60 through H1 2026; weak chemicals):13× on ~$7.6–$7.7 EPS ⇒ $98–$101; dividend is secure, but buyback cadence could flex. 3
What would invalidate the base case? A sustained Brent move into the mid‑$50s (pressure on upstream margins and cash returns), or, conversely, upside surprises from Guyana start‑ups/refining margins that re‑rate XOM toward the top of integrated‑major multiples. 12
Catalysts to watch next
- Q4 trading update & FY outlook (late January): look for guidance on 2026 capital spending, buyback run‑rate, and chemicals recovery. 5
- Guyana development milestones: regulatory steps on the eighth project and execution on the pathway to ~1.7 million bpd of capacity later this decade. 8
- EU policy developments: any softening or delay to the sustainability due‑diligence law could reduce European regulatory risk premia. 7
Bottom line
Exxon stock enters late‑November with solid defensive characteristics—a growing dividend, visible low‑cost growth (Guyana/Permian), and balance‑sheet strength—offset by a lower oil tape and still‑weak chemical margins. On our reading of November headlines and the Q3 scorecard, $123 base‑case fair value with a $100–$140 range captures the next 12 months under today’s macro. Investors focused on cash returns and advantaged barrels may find pullbacks toward the low‑$110s more attractive risk‑reward; momentum buyers will look for crude stabilization and incremental Guyana/Refining beats to push XOM back toward the $130s. 5
Disclosure/Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
