CSL Limited heads into Monday’s open with investors still digesting a tough few months: a surprise guidance downgrade and delayed vaccines demerger at the late‑October AGM, followed by a steady drumbeat of daily buy‑back notices last week. Below is a clear, fact‑checked briefing on the latest numbers, announcements, and catalysts to watch before the bell.
Where the stock last closed (Friday)
- CSL closed at A$181.81 on Friday, 14 Nov 2025 (down 0.07% on the day). 1
- In the U.S. on Friday, CSL’s ADR (OTC: CSLLY) finished at US$58.84 (after‑hours US$58.93), offering a modest positive lead‑in for Monday’s ASX session. 2
The freshest company disclosures
- Daily on‑market buy‑back updates continued 12–14 Nov. CSL is executing against a multi‑year on‑market buy‑back that begins with A$750m in FY26, part of a broader capital‑management reset. Expect more daily Appendix 3E filings while the program is active. 3
- AGM results (28 Oct): Shareholders delivered a second strike on pay (42.32% against the remuneration report), which automatically triggered a spill resolution — overwhelmingly defeated (97.29% against), so the board remains. 4
- Capital Markets Day (5–6 Nov): Management emphasised that U.S. influenza vaccination weakness is a headwind now, but expects medium‑term recovery and reiterated Seqirus’ technology and share advantages in differentiated flu products. 5
The big picture since August: restructure, guidance reset, and demerger timing
- Restructure unveiled in August: CSL said it would cut ~3,000 roles (~15% of staff), close underperforming U.S. plasma collection centres, and prepare a demerger of Seqirus to sharpen focus and deliver up to US$550m annual savings (with a one‑off charge up to ~US$770m). Shares plunged on the day as investors weighed execution risk. 6
- October update at the AGM: CSL delayed the Seqirus spin‑off, citing market conditions, and trimmed FY26 growth outlook to revenue +2–3% and NPATA +4–7% (cc). The stock fell as much as 16.6% to a near seven‑year low on the news. 7
- FY25 scorecard (18 Aug): CSL reported NPAT US$3.0bn (+17% cc) and underlying NPATA US$3.3bn (+14% cc) and lifted the final dividend to US$1.62 (paid 3 Oct). 8
Product & pipeline developments that still matter to valuation
- ANDEMBRY® (garadacimab) FDA‑approved (June): CSL’s first‑in‑class FXIIa inhibitor won U.S. approval for prophylaxis in hereditary angioedema with once‑monthly dosing, expanding the Behring franchise. The approved U.S. label confirms the indication and regimen. Early launch progress and reimbursement traction are watch‑items into FY26. 9
- HEMGENIX® access widening: In Europe, CSL secured Germany‑wide reimbursement via a performance‑based model; in Canada, CSL reached a pan‑Canadian LOI enabling provincial listings outside Quebec. Monitoring treatment starts and payer adoption will inform revenue runway. 10
What to watch at Monday’s open
1) Follow‑through from Wall Street and sentiment reset. Friday’s small ADR gain could cushion the open, but sentiment is still shaped by the late‑October downgrade, the AGM second strike, and ongoing debate over the Seqirus timeline. 7
2) Pace of buy‑backs. Expect another Appendix 3E before or during trade this week. The program is multi‑year and, at current prices, is an EPS support lever while investors await operational reacceleration. 11
3) Vaccination trend read‑throughs. Any new datapoints about U.S. flu shot uptake this Northern Hemisphere season will matter for Seqirus revenue visibility and for confidence in management’s “medium‑term recovery” framing from the Capital Markets event. 5
4) FX and macro. With dividends declared in USD and a large U.S. revenue base, AUD/USD swings can affect reported results; investors will continue to model currency effects into FY26. (See CSL’s dividend table and reporting currency.) 12
Key numbers, at a glance
- Last close (ASX, 14 Nov):A$181.81. 1
- ADR close (U.S., 14 Nov):US$58.84 (after‑hours US$58.93). 2
- FY25 dividend:US$1.62 final (paid 3 Oct); US$1.30 interim (paid 9 Apr). 12
- FY25 results (cc):NPAT US$3.0bn (+17%); NPATA US$3.3bn (+14%). 8
- Buy‑back:Multi‑year program; initial A$750m in FY26; daily updates filed last week. 11
- AGM votes: Remuneration report For 57.14% / Against 42.32% (second strike); spill motion defeated 97.29%. 4
Analyst and media takeaways to be aware of
- Coverage since the AGM has focused on execution risk (restructure + spin‑off delay), Seqirus exposure to U.S. vaccination trends, and whether buy‑backs + product launches (ANDEMBRY, HEMGENIX adoption) can offset near‑term pressure. 7
- Local market commentators remain split on valuation after the sell‑off, with some houses trimming targets but seeing scope for upside on execution. (Example recent retail‑press rundowns.) 13
Near‑term calendar & catalysts
- Daily: Buy‑back notices (Appendix 3E) when repurchases occur. 3
- FY26: Ongoing commentary on Seqirus demerger timing (now “when conditions allow”) and recovery signs in U.S. vaccination rates; updates at results/trading statements. 7
- Commercial ramp watches: ANDEMBRY U.S. uptake and HEMGENIX EU/Canada access translating to reported sales. 9
Bottom line
Into Monday’s open, CSL’s share price is being pulled in two directions:
- Supportive near‑term levers: a large on‑market buy‑back, a wider rare‑disease portfolio with ANDEMBRY and HEMGENIX expanding addressable revenue, and management’s medium‑term recovery message for Seqirus. 11
- Active headwinds: the Oct guidance cut, delay to the Seqirus spin‑off, and U.S. flu vaccination softness that clouds the pace of recovery. Execution on cost saves and portfolio growth now carries a higher burden of proof after a bruising two months. 7
Net‑net: Watch the buy‑back prints, any fresh reads on U.S. vaccination uptake, and early launch signals for ANDEMBRY and HEMGENIX. Those datapoints will likely set the tone for CSL’s share price as the ASX opens on 17 November.
Sources
- CSL Investor Centre, ASX announcements & Capital Markets Day; Dividends. 3
- Reuters: August restructure; October guidance cut, delay to spin‑off, share price reaction. 6
- ASX/CSL AGM Results of Meeting (vote percentages). 4
- MarketIndex / Morningstar AU (last close). 1
- MarketWatch (CSLLY ADR close). 2
- CSL newsroom / FDA label (ANDEMBRY approval). 9
- pharmaphorum / CSL (HEMGENIX Germany reimbursement); CSL newsroom (Canada LOI). 10
This article is general market commentary, not financial advice. Always consider your objectives and read company announcements in full before making investment decisions.
