Quick take: Shell closed Friday at 2,858p in London after setting a fresh 52‑week high earlier in the week. Brent crude finished Friday at $64.39/bbl, rebounding into the weekend. Buybacks remain active, the Q3 cash dividend is locked in, and there are fresh headlines around Shell’s US note‑exchange offer, an LNG arbitration skirmish, and a partial exit from the Volta EV media network. 1
Where Shell’s share price stands after Friday’s close
- London (SHEL.L): Shell ended Friday, 14 Nov at 2,858p (down fractionally on the day), according to the daily summary from Shares Magazine. Earlier last week (Tue, 11 Nov), the stock notched a new 52‑week high at £29.32. 1
- US ADR (NYSE: SHEL): The ADR closed Friday at $75.70. While ADR moves don’t map 1:1 to London, they offer a useful read‑across heading into the UK session. 2
Commodity backdrop: Brent crude settled Friday at $64.39 (+2.2%), lifted by a temporary disruption to Russian exports—supportive for oils & gas into Monday unless the bounce fades. Earlier in the week, Brent had slumped on supply‑glut concerns, underscoring how headline‑driven and fragile sentiment remains. 3
The market drivers to watch at the open
1) Oil & OPEC+ setting the tone
Oil’s week‑end bounce came after several down sessions as the market digested projections of ample supply. The next hard catalyst is the OPEC+ gathering on 30 Nov, where the group will review the pace of easing voluntary cuts—an event with obvious read‑through for Shell’s cash generation. 4
2) Cash returns: buybacks and dividends
- Buybacks: Shell kicked off another $3.5bn repurchase covering roughly three months—its 16th straight quarter of ≥$3bn in buybacks—after reporting Q3 results on 30 Oct. This buyback is intended to complete ahead of the Q4 results announcement. 5
- Daily dealing: Disclosures show the company continued to retire stock on 14 Nov, including 728,468 shares on the LSE at a VWAP of £28.5323, reinforcing a supportive bid in the market. 6
- Dividend: The Q3 2025 interim dividend timetable is set: ex‑div 13 Nov (UK ordinary), record 14 Nov, and payment on 18 Dec. The Q3 per‑share amount is $0.3580, up from $0.3440 in Q2. (Note the shares now trade ex‑dividend.) 7
3) Balance sheet and debt housekeeping
Shell launched exchange offers on 3 Nov to migrate several USD bond series into a new US issuing entity, a capital‑structure tidying that doesn’t alter economics for most holders. The early participation deadline is 17 Nov (5pm New York)—i.e., today—so watch for any uptake headlines. 8
4) Legal overhang: Venture Global arbitration
There were fresh developments in the long‑running Calcasieu Pass LNG dispute. Reuters reports Shell has challenged its adverse arbitration decision in New York, and a US court ordered Shell to pay Venture Global’s legal fees. The financial impact is unclear, but the optics can weigh on sentiment at the margin. 9
5) Strategy & portfolio updates
- Q3 scorecard: Shell reported $5.4bn in Adjusted Earnings and $12.2bn in CFFO, citing strong operations and improved trading and optimisation versus Q2. Total Q3 shareholder distributions reached $5.7bn. 5
- Project moves: Management confirmed a final investment decision on the HI gas project offshore Nigeria (Shell 40%) and decided not to restart the planned Rotterdam biofuels facility after a commercial review. 10
- EV charging rationalisation: Shell agreed to sell a substantial portion of the Volta Media Network to JOLT, consistent with a tighter capital focus in power/EV. 11
- Medium‑term framework: Earlier this year Shell lifted its shareholder‑distribution target to 40–50% of CFFO (from 30–40%) and trimmed capex to $20–22bn p.a. through 2028, keeping LNG growth at 4–5% annually. The FT highlighted associated cost‑cut plans to narrow the valuation gap with US peers. 12
6) Policy watch: UK windfall tax
Ahead of the Autumn Budget, Reuters relayed FT reporting that the Treasury could scrap the Energy Profits Levy a year early, a swing factor for North Sea investment appetite. No decision yet—but any Budget signalling this week or next would be material for the sector. 13
Street views & valuations (recent moves)
- Citi nudged its SHEL.L price target to 2,700p (Neutral). Berenberg lifted its target to 3,250p (Buy), while LBBW cut the name to Hold with a 2,900p target—illustrating a still‑wide range of conviction even near the highs. 14
Session set‑up: three plausible scenarios
- Constructive open: Brent extends Friday’s rebound; continuing daily buybacks add support; Shell tracks higher with oils. 3
- Range‑bound chop: Oil cools again on oversupply headlines ahead of the OPEC+ meeting; Shell oscillates around Friday’s close. 4
- Risk‑off fade: Any negative macro shock (rates, China data) or fresh legal headline overwhelms the commodity bounce; Shell underperforms the FTSE 100. 15
Dates and levels to keep in mind
- Today (17 Nov): Early participation deadline for Shell’s US note‑exchange offers (5pm ET). 16
- 30 Nov:OPEC+ meeting—key for near‑term oil balances. 17
- 18 Dec: Shell pays the Q3 2025 dividend. 7
- 5 Feb 2026:Q4 2025 results and dividend announcement (per Shell’s dividend timetable). 18
- 52‑week marker: New high set 11 Nov at £29.32; Friday close 2,858p. 19
Bottom line for Monday’s open
Shell enters the session with supportive company‑specific tailwinds—active buybacks, a higher dividend, and disciplined capex—but its day-to-day path will still be dictated by oil tape action and any policy/legal headlines. With Brent hovering in the mid‑$60s and the OPEC+ meeting looming, expect price action to remain headline‑sensitive. 20
This article is for news and informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
