Date: Monday, November 17, 2025 — U.S. market open preview
Quick take: Arista Networks heads into the new week after a volatile post‑earnings stretch. The company beat on Q3 revenue and EPS, guided Q4 broadly in line, unveiled new 800G hardware for AI/data‑center build‑outs, and set a 2026 growth target that keeps AI networking front and center. Analysts remain largely constructive despite a recent downgrade, and two near‑term events—Arista’s UBS appearance Tuesday and Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday—could sway AI‑infrastructure sentiment this week. 1
Where ANET stands after Friday’s close
Arista closed Friday, Nov. 14, at $131.37 (day range $125.36–$135.37). The 52‑week range is $59.43–$164.94, with the high set on Oct. 30, 2025. That puts shares well below late‑October peaks as investors digest guidance and the broader AI‑hardware tape. 2
Near‑term reference points: Friday’s intraday low $125.36 and high $135.37 define a short‑term band traders will watch into the open. 3
Earnings check: Q3 beat; Q4 guide tight
On Nov. 4, Arista posted Q3 revenue of $2.308B, up 27.5% YoY, and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.75, up 25% YoY—both ahead of consensus. For Q4 2025, management guided revenue to $2.3–$2.4B with non‑GAAP gross margin of 62–63% and operating margin of 47–48%. Shares slipped after the print as investors weighed the lack of a bigger guide raise and mix dynamics. 1
What bothered the market: Coverage last week flagged the stock’s drop despite the beat, citing conservative forward markers (including the 2026 growth framework at ~20% to ~$10.5–$10.65B) and worries about “white‑box” competition—though several houses remained positive. 4
2026 AI roadmap still aggressive
At (and around) its recent updates, Arista reiterated that AI networking is the growth engine: management’s framework points to AI revenue of ~$1.5B in 2025 scaling to ~$2.75B in 2026 (about 70% growth in the AI segment), within a ~20% total revenue growth plan to ~$10.5–$10.65B next year. 5
Product news: new 800G platforms for AI/data centers
On Oct. 29, Arista unveiled its next‑gen R4 series—including 7800R4 and 7280R4—aimed at petabit‑scale AI backbones and high‑density Ethernet fabrics. Highlights include dense 800GbE systems and 3.2 Tbps “HyperPort” interconnects designed to shorten AI job completion times, with initial R4 systems shipping now and more coming in Q1’26. The launch positions Arista to ride the ongoing Ethernet‑for‑AI shift. 6
Capital returns and balance sheet signals
Arista’s board in May authorized an additional $1.5B stock repurchase program; by June 30 the remaining authorization was ~$1.4B, underscoring flexibility to buy on weakness. 7
Street view: broadly positive, with one recent downgrade
Sell‑side tone remains mostly constructive following Q3, but Erste Group moved to Hold on Nov. 10. Across aggregators, consensus targets still cluster in the $160s–$170s with a Moderate/Strong Buy skew (ranges vary by source). As always, methodologies differ and targets change quickly—treat them as directional. 8
What could move ANET today and this week
- Conference catalyst (Tuesday): Arista is scheduled to appear at the UBS Global Technology & AI Conference on Nov. 18—commentary on AI Ethernet demand, 800G ramps, and 2026 pacing could color sentiment. 9
- AI macro read‑through (Wednesday):Nvidia reports Nov. 19 after the close. As a bellwether for AI infrastructure budgets, NVDA’s notebooks on supply, networking attach, and hyperscale spend may ripple across AI‑networking peers, including Arista. 10
- Industry showcase (this week):SC25 (Supercomputing) runs Nov. 17–21 in St. Louis; Arista lists participation on its events calendar—expect networking discussions (Ethernet vs. proprietary fabrics) to feature. 11
Key business themes to watch into the open
- Ethernet’s share in AI clusters: Arista’s 800G portfolio and software stack (EOS, CloudVision) aim to capture AI‑cluster switching as Ethernet displaces (or complements) proprietary alternatives. Product momentum since the R4 launch will be a focal point. 6
- Customer concentration & mix: Management regularly notes the risk of large purchases by a limited number of customers; investors will parse color on Cloud Titans, enterprise, and service‑provider mix. 1
- Order acceptance & lead times: Commentary around acceptance timing and deferred revenue remains important for quarter‑to‑quarter cadence. (Q2 filings showed substantial deferred balances and obligations.) 12
- Margin durability: Q4 guide embeds 62–63% non‑GAAP gross margin; supply/discounting dynamics and product‑service mix will drive how close results land. 1
Bottom line
Arista enters Monday with a solid Q3 beat, steady (if conservative) Q4 guide, and fresh 800G hardware supporting a robust 2026 AI‑networking framework. The UBS appearance and Nvidia’s print could inject volatility, but the fundamental story—Ethernet’s role in AI and Arista’s depth at 800G—remains intact. Short‑term, watch the $125–$135 band from Friday for market‑open context; medium‑term, investor focus stays on AI orders, 800G shipments, and how management steers the 20% 2026 growth narrative. 1
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional.
