TSX Today: Toronto Stock Exchange Steadies Ahead of Key Inflation Data (November 17, 2025)

Canada’s main stock market is starting the week in a holding pattern, with investors laser‑focused on fresh inflation numbers that could shape the Bank of Canada’s next move and set the tone for the S&P/TSX Composite Index into year‑end.

Early look: Futures point to a flat open

Futures tied to the S&P/TSX Composite Index were essentially unchanged early Monday, with December contracts down about 0.03% as of 5:50 a.m. ET, signalling a cautious open for the Toronto Stock Exchange on November 17, 2025. ^[1]

The muted move comes after a volatile stretch:

Last Wednesday, the S&P/TSX Composite slumped roughly 1.9%, falling 573 points to about 30,254 — its sharpest one‑day drop in years. ^[2]
The index then clawed back some of those losses, reversing early weakness to close about 0.2% higher near the 30,327 level on Friday, led by technology and energy stocks. ^[3]
Over the week, the TSX gained around 1.4%, its best weekly performance since late September. ^[4]

That backdrop sets up today as a classic “wait‑and‑see” session, with traders reluctant to place big bets before they see the latest inflation print.

All eyes on October CPI and the Bank of Canada

The key event driving sentiment is October’s Consumer Price Index report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed ahead of the release broadly expect annual inflation to cool to about 2.1%, down from 2.4% in September. ^[5]

A few moving pieces matter for TSX investors:

Headline inflation:
- September CPI rose 2.4% year‑over‑year, up from 1.9% in August, as a smaller drop in gasoline prices and firmer food costs pushed inflation higher. ^[6]
- October’s expected step down to ~2.1% is driven in part by lower gasoline prices and lingering effects of the federal carbon tax removal earlier this year. ^[7]
Core inflation:
- Measures such as CPI‑median and CPI‑trim have been hovering around 3%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain stickier than headline CPI implies. ^[8]
Interest‑rate backdrop:
- The Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate to 2.25% on October 29, its second consecutive 25‑basis‑point reduction, and signalled it may now be near the end of its cutting cycle. ^[9]

What this could mean for TSX sectors

Depending on how today’s CPI lands versus expectations, the impact may ripple through key corners of the TSX:

Banks and financials:
Softer‑than‑expected inflation could reinforce the view that rates are near a bottom, stabilizing net interest margins and supporting loan growth expectations. A hotter print, with core measures edging higher, might reignite worries about further tightening or a longer pause, pressuring rate‑sensitive names.
Rate‑sensitive sectors (REITs, utilities, pipelines):
These groups generally welcome lower yields. A confirmed trend toward 2% inflation would support recent rebounds, while any upside surprise could nudge bond yields higher and cool enthusiasm.
Growth and tech stocks:
After helping lead Friday’s rebound, technology names could benefit from any narrative that the rate‑cut cycle is intact and inflation is drifting lower, especially after a bruising stretch of volatility. ^[10]

Investors are also eyeing a forthcoming speech from Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent later this week, plus Thursday’s U.S. jobs data, for additional clues on the outlook for rates and growth. ^[11]

Index shake‑up: Cenovus–MEG reshapes TSX energy weights

Structurally, the TSX opens this week with a slightly different complexion, particularly in the energy sector.

S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed that, following shareholder approval of the Cenovus–MEG Energy transaction, MEG Energy (TSX: MEG) has been removed from the S&P/TSX Composite Index effective prior to the open on November 17, 2025. At the same time, Cenovus Energy’s (TSX: CVE) share count and investable weight factor have been increased in the index to reflect the new shares issued in the acquisition. ^[12]

Key details of the deal:

Cenovus completed its roughly C$7.9 billion cash‑and‑stock acquisition of MEG last week, adding about 110,000 barrels per day of oil sands production and assuming roughly US$800 million in net debt. ^[13]
MEG shares are expected to be delisted from the TSX around November 14, 2025, with former MEG shareholders receiving a mix of cash and Cenovus shares under the plan of arrangement. ^[14]

Implications for the TSX:

Energy weighting: With MEG removed and Cenovus’ float increased, passive funds tracking the S&P/TSX Composite are likely to tilt further toward Cenovus and away from smaller integrated producers.
Volatility around rebalancing: On and around implementation day, rebalancing flows can add short‑term noise to trading volumes and prices in affected stocks, even if fundamentals are unchanged.
Benchmark concentration: The change continues a broader trend of concentration in TSX energy heavyweights, which can amplify the index’s sensitivity to oil prices and oil‑sands‑specific news.

Resources and miners: Uranium, copper and gold in focus

Mining and resource‑linked names remain central to the TSX narrative today, with a string of updates from across the sector.

Queen’s Road Capital (TSX: QRC): Big year for a niche financier

Queen’s Road Capital Investment Ltd. (TSX: QRC) reported US$115 million in after‑tax earnings for its fiscal year ended August 31, 2025 — equivalent to about C$3.25 per share, implying a modest price‑to‑earnings multiple of roughly 2.4x at that date. ^[15]

Other highlights from the release:

A US$213 million convertible debenture portfolio at year‑end, now grown to around US$223 million, with an average 9.7% coupon expected to generate about US$22 million of annual interest income. ^[16]
Commodity exposure split roughly 50% uranium, 25% copper, 25% precious metals, positioning the firm squarely in some of the TSX’s strongest long‑term themes. ^[17]
Strong shareholder engagement: around 69% of investors participated in the dividend reinvestment plan for the November payout, and the company plans to move to semi‑annual dividends in 2026. ^[18]

For TSX watchers, QRC’s results underscore ongoing institutional appetite for structured funding in uranium and copper projects — and hint at continued deal flow across the mining complex if commodity prices stay firm.

Southern Cross Gold (TSX: SXGC): AGM clears the decks

Australasia‑focused explorer Southern Cross Gold Consolidated Ltd. (TSX: SXGC) announced the results of its Annual General Meeting, held today in Melbourne. All resolutions were approved, with about 95.8 million shares represented — roughly 37% of shares outstanding as of the record date. ^[19]

Southern Cross, which also trades in Australia (ASX: SX2) and on the OTCQX, continues to advance its high‑grade Sunday Creek gold and antimony project in Victoria — one of the exploration stories helping maintain global interest in TSX‑listed junior miners. ^[20]

NexGen Energy (TSX: NXE): Spotlight on widening losses

Uranium developer NexGen Energy Ltd. (TSX: NXE) is drawing renewed scrutiny after Simply Wall St highlighted a sharp reversal in its latest quarterly results:

NexGen reported a Q3 2025 net loss of about C$129.2 million, compared with net income of roughly C$10.3 million in the same quarter a year earlier. ^[21]

The article argues that the shift from profitability to sizable losses, coupled with earlier equity raises, intensifies questions about the company’s near‑term financial profile and funding strategy around its flagship Rook I uranium project. ^[22]

For the TSX, NexGen remains a bellwether for sentiment toward pre‑production uranium names: strong long‑term resource potential, but also capital‑intensive timelines and earnings volatility.

Energy, dividends and power deals

Beyond the big Cenovus–MEG story, several energy‑linked TSX names are feeding into today’s narrative.

Surge Energy (TSX: SGY): Monthly dividend reaffirmed

Surge Energy Inc. (TSX: SGY) confirmed it will pay a cash dividend of C$0.043333 per share on December 15, 2025, for shareholders of record on November 30, 2025, in respect of November production. The payment is designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes. ^[23]

The announcement reinforces Surge’s strategy of returning capital to shareholders through a steady monthly payout, even as the macro environment remains choppy for mid‑cap oil producers.

Hut 8 (TSX: HUT): Selling 310 MW of Ontario power to TransAlta

Crypto‑infrastructure and data‑centre operator Hut 8 Corp. (Nasdaq, TSX: HUT) announced a definitive agreement to sell a 310‑megawatt portfolio of four natural gas‑fired power plants in Ontario to TransAlta Corporation (NYSE: TAC; TSX: TA). ^[24]

Key points from the deal:

The assets were originally acquired out of bankruptcy; Hut 8 stabilized operations and secured five‑year capacity contracts across the entire portfolio through Ontario’s IESO Medium‑Term 2 auction. ^[25]
The company plans to redeploy sale proceeds into its multi‑gigawatt digital infrastructure development pipeline, prioritizing high‑return projects tied to computing and data‑centre expansion. ^[26]

The sale illustrates how some TSX‑listed crypto and AI‑adjacent names are re‑focusing on their core “compute” businesses while monetizing non‑core hard‑asset infrastructure.

Touchstone Exploration (TSX: TXP): Investor engagement ramping up

Touchstone Exploration Inc. (TSX, LSE: TXP) announced it will host a live investor presentation and Q&A on November 19, 2025 via the Investor Meet Company platform, following an analyst briefing in London. Management will outline 2025 activity and its strategy for 2026. ^[27]

For smaller energy names, these types of events can be catalysts for improved liquidity and visibility on the TSX, particularly among retail and UK‑based investors.

Crypto & tech on the TSX Venture: HIVE and AI infrastructure

In the junior and growth corner of Canada’s markets, HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (TSXV: HIVE) reported standout results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025:

Quarterly revenue of US$87.3 million, up 285% year‑over‑year and 91% quarter‑over‑quarter, driven by higher Bitcoin production and a ramp‑up in its BUZZ high‑performance computing (HPC) operations. ^[28]

HIVE’s results — and its parallel announcement about expanding AI‑focused cloud infrastructure with Dell Technologies — highlight the growing overlap between crypto mining, AI compute and TSXV capital‑raising, themes that often spill over into broader sentiment for Canadian tech and infrastructure names. ^[29]

Human side of the market: Flagship Communities REIT rings the closing bell

Away from macro headlines, Flagship Communities Real Estate Investment Trust recently joined TMX Group officials to close the Toronto market, celebrating the REIT’s fifth anniversary on the TSX and 30 years in the manufactured‑housing business. ^[30]

The Kentucky‑based REIT, which owns 87 manufactured‑housing communities across eight U.S. states, bills itself as the only pure‑play manufactured housing investment vehicle in Canadian public markets — a reminder of how global and specialized the TSX listings roster has become. ^[31]

What TSX investors should watch for the rest of the day

As November 17 unfolds, three themes will likely drive headlines and intraday moves on the Toronto Stock Exchange:

The CPI print and bond‑market reaction
- A downside surprise toward or below 2% could support financials, REITs, utilities, and growth stocks by reinforcing the case for a stable or gently easing rate path.
- A stronger‑than‑expected reading, especially if core measures tick higher, might revive concerns that the Bank of Canada’s job isn’t done, pressuring rate‑sensitive names and possibly the Canadian dollar. ^[32]
Flow effects from index and corporate actions
- Rebalancing tied to the Cenovus–MEG deal and S&P/TSX Composite changes could create pockets of volume and volatility, especially in energy. ^[33]
- Names with fresh news — QRC, SXGC, NXE, SGY, HUT, HIVE — may see outsized moves relative to the broader index.
Global risk sentiment
- With markets also digesting geopolitics, U.S. data later in the week, and corporate headlines like the reported discussions at Barrick about a potential split, cross‑border flows could add another layer of complexity to TSX trading. ^[34]

Final note

This article is for information and analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should consider their own objectives and risk tolerance and, where appropriate, consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

Strengthening Euro, Falling Inflation