Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is having another eventful Monday. After a huge post‑earnings rally, the electric‑vehicle maker is now caught between bullish Wall Street upgrades, negative headlines about a battery‑calibration problem, and fresh disclosures showing big investors trimming their stakes.
As of early afternoon on November 17, Rivian stock is trading around $15.06, down slightly on the day after last week’s surge. The stock remains up strongly over the past month thanks to a surprise move into positive gross profit in Q3 2025 and a series of upbeat analyst notes. [1]
Key Takeaways
- Rivian stock is consolidating near $15 after a rally of roughly 30–35% since its Q3 2025 earnings, which showed the company’s first positive gross profit of about $24 million. [2]
- Stifel raised its price target to $17 (Buy), while Tigress Financial lifted its target to $25, the highest on the Street and implying more than 65% upside from current levels. [3]
- A new report highlights a battery state‑of‑charge bug in R1 models with LFP packs that can cause range estimates to crash below 20% and leave some owners stranded; Rivian says a software fix is on the way. [4]
- Institutional filings show KBC Group NV and Westwood Holdings cutting Rivian positions, while CEO RJ Scaringe recently sold shares and simultaneously received a controversial long‑term pay package tied to aggressive stock‑price and profitability milestones. [5]
- Strategically, Rivian’s Volkswagen joint venture and upcoming R2/R3 models remain central to the long‑term story, and new commentary suggests their shared EV architecture could even be used in future VW combustion cars. [6]
Rivian Stock Price Today: Cooling After a Breakout Rally
Rivian shares are trading near $15.06, with an intraday range between $14.57 and $15.28, on volume above 14 million shares as of early afternoon on November 17.
That modest ~0.3% pullback comes after a big move: following its Q3 2025 report, Rivian stock jumped roughly 25–36% as investors reacted to a shock upside in gross profit and improving per‑vehicle economics. [7]
Earlier this month, the stock briefly hit a new 52‑week high around $17.15, before giving back some gains. [8] A market recap from Simply Wall St today notes that Rivian is among the session’s notable losers after its recent run, even as analysts keep nudging their targets higher. [9]
In other words: today looks more like consolidation than capitulation. The rally has already repriced a lot of optimism, and the market is now sorting through the good and bad news landing on the same day.
Wall Street Turns More Bullish – But Consensus Is Still Only “Hold”
Stifel: Target to $17 on improving unit economics
In a pre‑market note, Stifel raised its Rivian price target from $16 to $17 and reiterated a Buy rating. The firm highlighted:
- Strong Q3 2025 performance, including positive gross profit of $24 million versus expectations for a sizeable loss.
- A sharp reduction in per‑vehicle gross loss to under $1,000 per R1 vehicle, from more than $3,000 in Q2.
- Ongoing cost reductions and the expectation that R2 will be dramatically cheaper to build than the current R1 lineup. [10]
Stifel’s new target implies roughly 12–13% upside from where Rivian is trading today and comes after the stock has already delivered a 50%+ return over the past year, according to their data. [11]
Tigress Financial: Street‑high $25 target, ~65% implied upside
Even more aggressive is Tigress Financial. Analyst Ivan Feinseth recently boosted his target from $21 to $25, the highest among major Wall Street firms, while keeping a Buy rating. [12]
His bullish thesis leans on:
- Record deliveries and about 78% year‑over‑year revenue growth in Q3, signaling growing demand and pricing power. [13]
- The $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen, which is expected to accelerate Rivian’s next‑gen software and electrical architecture. [14]
- Long‑term commercial demand from partners like Amazon and AT&T, which use Rivian’s electric vans and fleet solutions. [15]
At around $15 per share, a $25 target suggests more than 65% potential upside if Rivian can hit Tigress’s growth and execution assumptions. [16]
But the average rating is still cautious
Despite the louder bullish voices, broader analyst sentiment remains mixed:
- GuruFocus tallies a consensus “Hold” with an average target price of about $14.50, below today’s price. [17]
- MarketBeat similarly shows a large cluster of Hold ratings, with a spread ranging from bearish underperform calls to very bullish targets from firms like Tigress. [18]
- TipRanks’ data also pegs the analyst consensus at Hold, with an average target around $13–14 implying modest downside from current levels. [19]
In short: a few analysts are getting very excited, but the Street as a whole isn’t all‑in yet.
Battery‑Calibration Bug Hits R1 Owners with LFP Packs
On the consumer side, Rivian is facing a tricky new quality headline today. An in‑depth report from autoevolution describes a state‑of‑charge (SoC) bug affecting some R1T and R1S models equipped with Rivian’s new LFP “Standard” battery pack. [20]
Key points from owner reports and the article:
- When the state of charge drops below roughly 20%, the displayed battery level can plunge to 0% much faster than expected, causing vehicles to shut down abruptly.
- Several drivers reported being stranded a short distance from a charger after the vehicle suddenly ran out of usable energy despite the car initially projecting enough range to complete the trip.
- In some cases, owners also saw the 12‑volt battery die after the main pack was depleted, adding repair costs on top of towing fees. [21]
The article attributes the issue to a recent software update (2025.38) that appears to have thrown off the SoC calculations for the new LFP pack, rather than a fundamental chemistry flaw. Rivian has reportedly reached out to affected customers and is preparing an over‑the‑air fix in an upcoming 2025.42 update, expected within about two weeks, which should recalibrate the range estimates and address the bug. [22]
This is not a formal recall at this stage, but it’s exactly the kind of reliability story that can test consumer confidence at a time when Rivian is trying to broaden its audience with more affordable trims.
Big Holders Trim Stakes as CEO Sells Shares
Alongside analyst upgrades, today brought a fresh wave of institutional ownership disclosures that paint a more nuanced picture of how big money views Rivian.
KBC Group NV & Westwood Holdings reduce exposure
MarketBeat reports that KBC Group NV slashed its Rivian position by about 87.8% in Q2, selling roughly 699,000 shares and ending the quarter with just over 97,000 shares worth about $1.3 million. [23]
A separate filing shows Westwood Holdings Group cut its stake by 28.4%, selling nearly 25,000 shares and finishing with around 62,700 shares valued at roughly $860,000. [24]
Kalkine Media’s coverage of the KBC move frames it as part of a broader rebalancing within the Nasdaq Composite, emphasizing that institutional allocations in emerging EV names often swing as managers reassess risk, liquidity, and sector exposure. [25]
Insider selling: Scaringe trims his position
Both MarketBeat articles also flag recent insider sales:
- CEO RJ Scaringe sold about 52,350 shares at an average price of $16.60, for proceeds of roughly $869,000, leaving him with around 1.25 million shares. [26]
Insider sales don’t automatically imply bearishness—they can be driven by diversification or tax planning—but they do stand in contrast to bullish analyst rhetoric and may contribute to near‑term volatility.
The controversial CEO pay package in the background
All of this comes just days after Rivian’s board approved a Musk‑style compensation package for Scaringe that could be worth up to $4.6 billion over the next decade if ambitious stock‑price and operational milestones are hit. [27]
- The plan grants Scaringe options on 36.5 million shares that vest if Rivian’s share price steps through a series of targets from $40 to $140, and if the company meets profitability and cash‑flow goals. [28]
- His base salary doubles from $1 million to $2 million, and he also receives an economic stake in Mind Robotics, a Rivian AI spinoff. [29]
The optics: Wall Street loves the improved fundamentals, but some investors are weighing rich executive rewards and insider selling against the company’s still‑heavy losses and cash burn.
Strategy Check: Q3 Profit Surprise, VW JV and the R2/R3 Roadmap
Underlying today’s noise is a bigger structural story that has been driving Rivian’s re‑rating this month.
Q3 2025: First positive gross profit
Rivian’s Q3 2025 results marked a major milestone:
- Revenue: about $1.56 billion, up ~78% year‑over‑year. [30]
- Gross profit: roughly $24 million, versus expectations for a loss of nearly $39 million. [31]
- Automotive gross loss per vehicle shrank to under $1,000, from more than $3,000 in Q2, helped by cost reductions in the R1 program. [32]
- Net loss remained heavy at around $1.17 billion, underscoring that Rivian is still far from bottom‑line profitability. [33]
Software and services—boosted in part by the Volkswagen partnership—generated roughly $154 million in gross profit, showing how high‑margin software and licensing are starting to matter to the story. [34]
Volkswagen joint venture: From EVs to possible combustion cars
Rivian’s joint venture with Volkswagen Group, known as RV Tech, has quickly become one of its biggest strategic assets:
- VW has committed up to $5.8 billion in total investment into Rivian and the JV. [35]
- The partnership focuses on a shared software‑defined vehicle platform that will first underpin future VW EVs like the ID.Every1 compact car and selected Audi and Scout models, with winter testing scheduled to start later this year. [36]
- VW executives told Reuters the architecture is robust enough that it could eventually be used in internal‑combustion vehicles as well, even though the initial focus is all‑electric. [37]
If successful, this JV could turn Rivian’s software and electronics stack into a high‑margin, licensing‑driven business, not just an internal tool for its own trucks and SUVs.
R2 and R3: The mass‑market push
Zacks and other analysts continue to call out Rivian as a key play on the next leg of EV adoption, largely thanks to its upcoming R2 and R3 platforms. [38]
- R2: a mid‑size SUV targeted to launch in H1 2026, with a starting price around $45,000—far below today’s R1 lineup and designed to take on mass‑market EVs like Tesla’s Model Y. [39]
- R3/R3X: smaller, more affordable vehicles that could further broaden Rivian’s addressable market. [40]
- Management aims to cut material and production costs by roughly half when moving from R1 to R2, which is crucial for long‑term profitability. [41]
Rivian ended Q3 with about $7.7 billion in liquidity (roughly $7.1 billion in cash and equivalents) and expects another $2.5 billion from Volkswagen over time as technology milestones are hit, giving it runway to fund R2’s ramp—though analysts still call cash burn “highly concerning.” [42]
How to Read Today’s Mixed Rivian Headlines
For investors and observers, today’s news flow around Rivian boils down to a push‑and‑pull between improving fundamentals and lingering risks:
Positives
- Clear evidence of progress toward gross‑margin breakeven, with cost per vehicle falling sharply. [43]
- Strengthening strategic partnerships (especially Volkswagen) and a credible roadmap to a more affordable product mix via R2 and R3. [44]
- Upgraded price targets from influential analysts and thematic recognition from firms like Zacks, which lists Rivian among its top EV/AV plays. [45]
Risks & Overhangs
- The new LFP battery‑calibration bug raises questions about software quality and reliability, even if a fix is coming soon. [46]
- Institutional investors like KBC Group NV and Westwood Holdings trimming stakes, plus CEO share sales, suggest not everyone is buying into the rally, at least at recent prices. [47]
- Rivian still posts multi‑billion‑dollar annual losses and is relying on massive capital projects (the Georgia plant, R2 launch) and a DOE loan to hit its long‑term targets. [48]
- The new $4.6 billion CEO pay package may be seen as a vote of confidence, but also adds governance and optics questions while the company is cutting jobs and asking investors for patience. [49]
For now, the market’s verdict seems to be: Rivian is moving in the right direction, but the path to sustainable profitability is still long, bumpy, and news‑driven.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any kind. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
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