HONG KONG — November 18, 2025 — Xiaomi Corp. (HKEX: 1810) fell again on Tuesday, capping a bruising few weeks that have turned the smartphone‑to‑EV group into the worst‑performing major Chinese tech stock heading into its third‑quarter earnings release this evening. A combination of margin pressure in handsets, questions around EV capacity and mix, and more cautious sell‑side targets continues to weigh on sentiment. 1
What moved today (Nov 18)
- Intraday prints: A bearish block trade of 131,200 shares at HK$40.78 crossed at 10:50 a.m. HKT. At the time of the print, Xiaomi’s last price was down about 2.8% on the session; the day’s range to that point ran from HK$40.52 to HK$41.78, with turnover already over HK$4.1 billion on 100.76 million shares. (Intraday figures are time‑stamped and subject to change.) 2
- Earnings clock: Xiaomi reports Q3 2025 after the close at 7:30 p.m. HKT. The company’s investor‑relations page confirms tonight’s timing for the results announcement. 3
- Street setup: AASTOCKS’ broker roundup shows 15 houses projecting non‑IFRS adjusted net profit of RMB 9.51bn–10.56bn for Q3 (median ~RMB 10.07bn, +61% YoY). The note also flags Q3 global smartphone shipments ~45.3m and market expectations that EV deliveries topped 100,000 units in the quarter. Short‑selling activity today was notable, with a ~20% short‑selling ratio cited alongside real‑time quote data. 4
The bigger picture: Why Xiaomi slumped into the cellar
Fresh analysis today underscores how quickly the narrative flipped. After flirting with a US$200bn market value mid‑year, Xiaomi is now down nearly 30% from a September peak and ranks bottom on the Hang Seng Tech Index over that span. The pullback reflects rising memory‑chip costs (mobile DRAM contract prices +21% in October, with more increases likely), sluggish domestic consumption, and tougher iPhone 17 competition—all pressuring smartphone margins just as investors debate the pace and profitability of Xiaomi’s EV ramp. Short interest has drifted up toward 0.7% of free float, while the average price target has been trimmed >8% since August, even as mainland “southbound” buyers logged 13 straight days of net purchases through Friday. 1
What analysts are saying right now
- HSBC: The bank maintains a Buy but cuts its target price to HK$65.40 (from HK$75.90). Its latest write‑up reiterates confidence in Xiaomi’s premiumization strategy and share‑price upside over the medium term, while noting that mix and margin dynamics—across both smartphones and EVs—will be key. HSBC also expected Xiaomi’s “17 series” to benefit from Singles’ Day demand following the September launch. 5
- Consensus into results: As noted above, brokers clustered around ~RMB 10bn in Q3 adjusted profit. The focus is less on headline profit, and more on forward guidance around component‑cost pass‑through, smartphone gross margins, EV profitability timing, and production capacity for higher‑end trims. 4
Five things to watch in tonight’s Q3 print
- Smartphone margin vs. DRAM/NAND inflation. With memory costs spiking, watch Xiaomi’s commentary on pricing power and cost absorption across Redmi and Xiaomi‑branded devices. 1
- EV business mix and profitability. Investors want clarity on model mix (including higher‑margin variants) and the timeline to sustained profitability in autos as capacity ramps. 4
- China demand vs. iPhone 17 cycle. Any color on competitive dynamics and sell‑through in key domestic channels will be scrutinized. 1
- International expansion cadence. Management’s milestones for overseas retail expansion and eventual EV exports will help frame 2026–2027 expectations. (Background: company plans communicated earlier this year.) 6
- Capital allocation and liquidity. After strong YTD volatility and earlier capital‑markets activity tied to the EV ramp, investors will parse cash, R&D outlays, and any buyback/dividend hints. (Background context.) 7
Key intraday stats (Nov 18, Hong Kong)
- Large print: Bearish block of 131.2k shares @ HK$40.78 at 10:50 a.m. (indicative of ongoing supply).
- Range/flow at that time:HK$41.78 / HK$40.52 range; ~100.8m shares traded; ~HK$4.12bn turnover.
- Short‑selling tone:~20% short‑selling ratio cited in today’s market wrap.
All figures above are intraday snapshots and may have changed by the close. 2
Bottom line
Xiaomi’s setup into Q3 is finely balanced: Street models still expect solid YoY profit growth, yet near‑term headwinds—cost inflation in memory, an aggressive iPhone cycle, and debates around EV mix/scale—have pushed the stock to the back of the China tech pack. Tonight’s update needs to reset expectations credibly on margins and EV profitability to stabilize the share‑price trajectory. 1
Disclosures & sources: This article synthesizes same‑day developments and third‑party reporting/market data from Moneyweb/Bloomberg, AASTOCKS, Xiaomi IR, and TradingView. Intraday prices and volumes are cited with timestamps and may differ at the close. 1
