Stock Market Today, Nov. 20, 2025: Nvidia Rally vs Fed Caution on FOMC Minutes, Trade Gap and Oil

Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings have lit a fire under U.S. stock futures this Thursday, but a hawkish set of Federal Reserve minutes, a sharply narrower U.S. trade deficit and fresh crude oil inventory data are all reminding investors that the macro backdrop is anything but simple. Futures point to a strong open for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, even as markets dial back expectations for a December Fed rate cut and digest delayed economic data following the 43‑day government shutdown. ^[1]

Key takeaways for November 20, 2025

Stocks: U.S. equity futures are sharply higher after Nvidia smashed earnings expectations and raised its revenue outlook, putting the AI trade back in the spotlight. ^[2]
Fed:FOMC minutes from the October 28–29 meeting show “many” officials leaning against a December rate cut, worried that inflation progress has stalled and that another move could damage credibility. ^[3]
Trade: The U.S. August trade deficit shrank nearly 24% to $59.6 billion, driven largely by a drop in imports after new tariffs took effect, offering a near‑term boost to GDP but underscoring global trade frictions. ^[4]
Energy:EIA crude oil inventories fell by about 3.4 million barrels last week, leaving stocks roughly 5% below their five‑year seasonal average and supporting modest gains in WTI and Brent prices. ^[5]
Housing & credit: MBA data show U.S. mortgage applications down 5.2% week‑over‑week, while today’s docket features building permits and housing starts alongside ongoing Fedspeak. ^[6]

Nvidia earnings rekindle the AI trade and power stock futures

After a choppy stretch and a four‑day losing streak for major indexes, Wall Street is waking up to a very different tone:

Nasdaq 100 futures are up roughly 1.7%,
S&P 500 futures around 1.3%, and
Dow futures about 0.6%,

as investors pile back into tech and AI‑linked names. ^[7]

Nvidia once again cleared a high bar:

Earnings and revenue beat already‑lofty analyst expectations, and
The company guided for revenue of about $65 billion, comfortably above consensus near $62 billion, signaling that demand for AI chips remains red‑hot. ^[8]

The result: a broad “risk‑on” mood in equity markets. AI‑heavy benchmarks are leading the rebound, and broader S&P 500 futures are following as traders treat Nvidia as a bellwether for both corporate profit momentum and the staying power of the AI spending cycle. ^[9]

Yet this renewed optimism is colliding with a far more cautious message from the Federal Reserve.

FOMC minutes: December rate cut now a close call

The minutes of the October 28–29 FOMC meeting, released Wednesday, are the week’s key macro story. They reveal a central bank that cut rates in October but is far from convinced it should do so again next month. ^[10]

What the Fed minutes actually say

From the official record and major newswire summaries: ^[11]

The Fed voted 10–2 to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% target range at the October meeting.
“Many” officials expressed reservations about another cut in December, citing:
- Inflation still stuck around 3%, above the 2% target for nearly five years;
- Concern that repeated cuts risk convincing the public the Fed is no longer serious about 2% inflation;
- Limited fresh data because of the prolonged government shutdown, which delayed key jobs and inflation reports.
Policymakers are now visibly split into three camps:
1. Those who want another cut soon to guard against labor‑market weakness;
2. Those who see future cuts as likely, but not in December;
3. Those who think no further near‑term cuts are appropriate.

Outside analysts describe the October move as a “hawkish cut”: the Fed loosened slightly but paired the step with tougher rhetoric to signal that easing is not on autopilot. ^[12]

Market reaction: pricing out a December move

Before the minutes, futures markets were still leaning toward one more cut by year‑end. Since their release and after a delayed jobs report was pushed further back, odds of a December cut have dropped into the roughly 20–35% range, according to various derivatives‑based estimates. ^[13]

That repricing has helped:

Support the dollar,
Keep longer‑term Treasury yields elevated, and
Reinforce the idea that financial conditions may stay relatively tight even as growth softens and unemployment creeps higher. ^[14]

For equity traders following the kind of “data docket, Fedspeak and more” calendars popularized by MarketWatch and others, today’s Fed‑related catalysts are clear: digesting the minutes, tracking fresh Fed speeches, and watching how rate‑cut odds evolve into the December 9–10 meeting. ^[15]

Trade deficit shrinks as tariffs hit imports

Another big macro story feeding into today’s narrative is yesterday’s long‑delayed U.S. international trade report for August 2025, finally released by the Census Bureau and BEA. ^[16]

Numbers at a glance

According to the official release:

The goods and services trade deficit narrowed to $59.6 billion in August,
Down from a revised $78.2 billion in July – a 23.8% contraction in the gap.
Exports were essentially flat at $280.8 billion (+0.1%),
While imports fell 5.1% to $340.4 billion.

Economists had expected a deficit closer to $60–61 billion, making the actual print meaningfully better than forecasts. ^[17]

Why the trade balance is moving

News outlets and policy analysts point to a common driver:

New rounds of tariffs announced by President Trump hit U.S. imports particularly hard in August, depressing goods inflows and mechanically improving the trade balance. ^[18]

From a GDP accounting perspective, the smaller deficit is a short‑term positive for third‑quarter growth, as net exports subtract less from headline output. But there are clear caveats:

Lower imports may also signal softer domestic demand,
Tariff‑related disruptions raise costs and uncertainty for businesses, and
Retaliatory trade measures from partners could weigh on exports later.

The “Wednesday: Trade Deficit, FOMC Minutes” schedule published by Calculated Risk ahead of the release captured how closely macro watchers were tracking this sequence of events: MBA mortgage data at 7:00 a.m. ET, the trade balance at 8:30 a.m., and the FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET. ^[19]

Today, markets are still digesting the implications for trade, growth and Fed policy – particularly whether a tariff‑driven trade improvement is enough to offset other signs of cooling activity.

Oil in focus: crude inventories fall, energy markets firm

Energy is another pillar of today’s trading narrative. The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, out Wednesday, showed that U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by about 3.4 million barrels in the week ending November 14. ^[20]

Key details:

Inventories excluding the SPR are now around 424 million barrels, roughly 5% below the five‑year average for this time of year. ^[21]
Gasoline stocks rose by about 2.3 million barrels, but remain around 3% below their five‑year seasonal norm. ^[22]

On the market side, WTI and Brent futures have ticked higher:

WTI January futures recently traded near $59.60, up about 0.6%,
Brent around $63.94, up roughly 0.7%. ^[23]

These moves tie directly into today’s economic calendar highlighted by Investing.com and others, where EIA crude oil inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET were flagged as one of the “major economic events to watch”, alongside Cushing storage levels, product inventories and refinery utilization rates. ^[24]

For markets, the combination of a surprise draw and still‑sub‑average inventories reinforces a narrative of modestly tighter supply, counterbalancing worries that weaker global growth and higher rates could sap oil demand.

Housing and credit: mortgages, permits and starts on the radar

Beyond Fed policy and trade, housing‑related indicators are also shaping today’s discussion.

Mortgage applications slide as rates rebound

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday that U.S. mortgage applications fell 5.2% in the week ending November 14, continuing a volatile but downward trend in demand. ^[25]

A separate housing‑market analysis notes that:

Mortgage rates bounced off a late‑October low and have climbed again as markets scale back expectations for a December Fed cut.
That rebound has dampened homebuyer appetite, with would‑be borrowers particularly sensitive after several years of elevated prices. ^[26]

Taken together, the Fed’s “wait‑and‑see” stance and higher long‑term yields are reinforcing a picture of a constrained housing sector, even as construction spending recently surprised to the upside on remodeling and multifamily projects. ^[27]

Building permits and housing starts: today’s releases

In the daily data dockets circulated by economic calendars, traders are watching:

8:30 a.m. ET – Building permits: consensus around 1.34 million annualized, after prior readings around the 1.33 million mark;
8:30 a.m. ET – Housing starts: forecasts centered near 1.33 million, modestly below earlier in the year as high mortgage rates and affordability challenges weigh on new construction. ^[28]

While these figures can be noisy month‑to‑month, August data showed:

Housing starts down to roughly 1.31 million units,
Building permits near 1.33 million, signaling a gradual cooling of new supply. ^[29]

With trade, inflation and jobs data all scrambled by the recent shutdown, housing indicators have taken on outsized importance as one of the few relatively timely windows into real‑economy conditions.

How today’s macro mix fits together for investors

Put side by side, today’s moving pieces paint a nuanced picture:

Growth & earnings: Nvidia’s results and the broader AI wave suggest corporate profit engines in key sectors remain strong, supporting equity valuations even as macro clouds linger. ^[30]
Policy & inflation: The FOMC minutes show a Fed that is cautious, divided and data‑dependent, making a December cut a genuine coin‑flip and keeping the path of policy highly sensitive to each incoming release. ^[31]
External sector: A sharply smaller trade deficit boosts near‑term GDP but owes a lot to tariff‑distorted imports, raising questions about sustainability and potential retaliation. ^[32]
Commodities & inflation pipeline: Falling crude inventories and firmer oil prices limit how quickly energy‑driven disinflation can continue, something Fed officials will be watching closely. ^[33]
Housing & credit: Weakening mortgage demand and subdued builder sentiment underscore how higher‑for‑longer rates are biting the interest‑sensitive parts of the economy, giving the Fed a reason to be careful but not necessarily to rush more cuts. ^[34]

What to watch this afternoon and beyond

For traders positioning into the close and into December, the key watchpoints now are:

Additional Fed speeches that might clarify how policymakers interpreted the October minutes in hindsight; ^[35]
The delayed September jobs report and other backlogged data, which could quickly shift the debate on whether policy is too tight; ^[36]
Ongoing price action in Nvidia and the broader AI complex, which are acting as barometers for risk sentiment and equity multiples; ^[37]
Any follow‑through in Treasury yields and the dollar as traders refine their December rate‑cut odds. ^[38]

For now, November 20, 2025 is shaping up as a classic tug‑of‑war session:
a powerful earnings‑driven rally led by Nvidia on one side, and a more hawkish Fed, shifting trade flows and mixed housing signals on the other. How that tension resolves over the coming weeks will go a long way toward deciding whether today’s surge is the start of a year‑end melt‑up — or just another bear‑market‑style bounce in a data‑dependent world.

NVIDIA'S EARNINGS! | FED MINUTES