Canada Stock Market Today: TSX Jumps on Fed Cut Bets as Data Show Consumer Slowdown (Nov. 22, 2025)

Canada’s stock market heads into the weekend on a strong note after a big rebound Friday, even as fresh data on retail sales and housing underline a cooling domestic economy.

Snapshot of the Canada Stock Market

Index: S&P/TSX Composite
Friday close (Nov. 21): 30,160.65, up 254.10 points (+0.85%) ^[1]
Week: –0.55% (down 165.81 points), lower in three of the past four weeks ^[2]
Year to date: roughly +22% ^[3]
Distance from record: about 2% below its all‑time closing high of 30,827.58 set on Nov. 12, 2025 ^[4]
Leadership Friday: Health care, consumer discretionary, real estate and consumer staples
Laggard: Energy was the only sector in the red ^[5]

Because today is Saturday, November 22, the Toronto Stock Exchange is closed; the moves investors are digesting now are from Friday’s session and the week that just ended. ^[6]

TSX Rebounds After Rough Week

Friday’s rally on the S&P/TSX Composite was a sharp reversal from Thursday’s selloff and a volatile week overall. The benchmark index climbed 0.85% to 30,160.65, its biggest one‑day percentage gain since mid‑November. ^[7]

Even with that late‑week bounce, Dow Jones market data show the TSX finished the week 0.55% lower, its third weekly decline in the past four. Month‑to‑date, the index is modestly negative, but it remains up nearly 22% for 2025 and only a couple of percentage points below the record 30,827.58 hit on Nov. 12. ^[8]

In an interview with The Canadian Press, Macan Nia, co‑chief investment strategist at Manulife Investment Management, argued that Friday’s action was a “microcosm” of the TSX this year: financials, gold‑linked names and Shopify have together driven roughly 80% of the index’s 2025 gains. ^[9]

Sector Breakdown: 10 of 11 Groups Rise

According to RTTNews/Nasdaq data, 10 of the TSX’s 11 sectors finished higher on Friday: ^[10]

Health care led the rally with a gain of about 3.2%.
Consumer discretionary stocks climbed roughly 2.4%.
Real estate advanced about 1.6%.
Consumer staples added about 1.4%.
Information technology also moved higher as investors rotated back into growth names.

Energy was the lone sector in negative territory, pressured by lower crude prices and a weaker outlook for demand. ^[11]

Canadian stocks got an extra tailwind from renewed expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December. After a speech by New York Fed President John Williams highlighting labour‑market risks, futures markets moved to pricing roughly a 70% chance of a quarter‑point cut next month, up from about 40% the day before. ^[12]

Biggest TSX Movers: Health Care, Industrials and Energy Names in Focus

Friday’s broad‑based advance had some clear individual winners and losers:

Standout gainers

RTTNews data point to several double‑digit or high single‑digit winners on the day: ^[13]

Curaleaf Holdings — up close to 9–10%, riding the strength in cannabis and health‑care names.
TFI International — gained roughly 6.5%, adding to industrials’ momentum.
Magna International and Linamar — both up around 4–6%, reflecting renewed optimism in auto‑parts and manufacturing.
Chartwell Retirement Residences — advanced more than 2%, participating in the real‑estate rebound.

Meanwhile, Shopify — one of the TSX’s most influential constituents — rose about 2.1% and contributed the largest positive point move to the index, according to The Canadian Press. ^[14]

Notable laggards

Energy stocks were under pressure:

International Petroleum, Canadian Natural Resources, CES Energy Solutions and Birchcliff Energy all finished lower, with losses ranging from about 1.3% to 2.4%, mirroring the pullback in crude prices. ^[15]

The weakness in oil highlights how sensitive the TSX still is to commodity sentiment, even in a year when tech and gold have taken the spotlight.

Economic Data: Retail Sales Slide, Housing Prices Slip Again

Friday’s market action unfolded against a heavy data backdrop that gave investors a fresh look at the health of Canadian consumers and the housing market.

Retail trade: September setback

Statistics Canada’s September retail trade report confirmed that consumers are becoming more cautious: ^[16]

Headline retail sales fell 0.7% month‑over‑month to $69.8 billion, reversing a 1.0% gain in August.
Sales declined in six of nine subsectors, led by a 2.9% drop at motor vehicle and parts dealers, including a 3.6% fall at new‑car dealers. ^[17]
In volume terms, sales were down 0.8%.
A flash estimate for October suggests sales were flat, indicating weak momentum heading into the holiday season. ^[18]

Excluding autos and parts, sales actually rose 0.2% in September and were up 3.5% year‑over‑year, which softens the blow but still signals waning consumer strength as higher borrowing costs and tariffs squeeze households. ^[19]

Housing: new home prices still drifting lower

On the housing front, new home prices continued to edge down:

The New Housing Price Index for October 2025 fell 0.4% month‑over‑month at the national level, with declines in major provinces including Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia. ^[20]
This marks the eighth consecutive month without an increase in the index, underscoring the pressure on developers and builders from higher financing and construction costs. ^[21]

For equity investors, the combination of soft retail sales and falling new‑home prices adds to evidence that domestic demand is cooling, even as the TSX trades near record highs.

Bank of Canada and Growth Outlook: Quiet Now, Busy Soon

The Bank of Canada (BoC) did not change interest rates this week, but investors received several useful signals:

The BoC’s October Monetary Policy Report noted that overall inflation has hovered around 2%, with “underlying” inflation near 2.5%, as the economy adjusts to tariffs and weaker export demand. ^[22]
A Senior Loan Officer Survey update was scheduled for Nov. 21, highlighting conditions in business lending and credit availability, though detailed results are not yet public. ^[23]

Looking ahead, RBC Economics expects that Canada’s economy grew about 0.5% annualized in Q3, a modest rebound after a 1.6% contraction in Q2 driven by trade disruptions. The bank sees signs of stabilization in manufacturing and wholesale volumes, but acknowledges that domestic demand is doing much of the heavy lifting. ^[24]

Investors are also eyeing upcoming data and decisions:

Nov. 28, 2025: Statistics Canada releases Q3 2025 GDP and September GDP by industry (in lockup earlier that morning). ^[25]
Dec. 10, 2025: Next BoC interest‑rate announcement. ^[26]

If retail and housing data remain weak while inflation stays near target, markets may lean harder toward additional BoC easing in 2026 — a backdrop that traditionally favours rate‑sensitive sectors such as utilities, real estate and parts of financials.

Canada–UAE Investment Deal Adds a New Macro Theme

Beyond domestic data, new trade and investment commitments with the United Arab Emirates added another talking point for Canadian markets:

Ottawa announced the signing of a Canada–UAE Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA) and the launch of negotiations toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). ^[27]
The UAE has pledged up to $50 billion in future investment into Canada, targeting sectors such as infrastructure, energy, aerospace and agri‑food. ^[28]

RTTNews noted that headlines about deepening Canada–UAE trade ties helped support sentiment on Friday, reinforcing the TSX’s image as a resource‑ and trade‑leveraged market. ^[29]

For investors, this theme may be particularly relevant for infrastructure, engineering, energy and logistics names over the medium term, though details and timelines for specific projects remain to be seen.

Loonie, Oil and Gold: Mixed Signals for a Commodity‑Heavy Index

Canadian dollar: weaker week, stable day

The Canadian dollar ended Friday nearly unchanged on the day but was on track for about a 0.5% weekly decline against the U.S. dollar, its biggest weekly drop in roughly two months. ^[30]

Reuters attributes the move to weaker‑than‑expected retail sales, softer oil prices and ongoing U.S. dollar strength.
The Canadian Press reported that the loonie traded around 70.92 U.S. cents, down from 71.02 U.S. cents on Thursday. ^[31]

A softer currency can boost exporters’ earnings in Canadian‑dollar terms, benefitting parts of the TSX, but it also reflects concerns about domestic growth.

Oil: pressure on energy stocks

Crude prices slipped, and that showed up directly in energy share performance:

The January crude contract settled around US$58.06 per barrel, according to Canadian Press reporting. ^[32]
Reuters separately highlighted a roughly 1.9% fall in oil this week amid optimism about progress toward a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which could eventually lift global supply. ^[33]

Lower oil is a headwind for Canada’s major producers such as Canadian Natural Resources, and helps explain why energy was the only TSX sector in the red on Friday. ^[34]

Gold: supportive for miners and defensive plays

Gold, by contrast, remains a bright spot:

The December gold contract climbed to around US$4,079.50 an ounce by Friday’s close, up nearly US$20 on the day. ^[35]

That strength has helped gold miners and broader materials stocks post outsized gains in recent weeks and continues to support the TSX’s resource-heavy profile, particularly when growth worries nudge investors toward safe‑haven assets.

Beyond the Blue‑Chips: Junior Miners Shine on the TSXV

While the S&P/TSX Composite gets most of the headlines, junior resource names on the TSX Venture Exchange (TSXV) also delivered eye‑catching moves this week:

An InvestingNews survey of top TSXV mining gainers shows weekly rallies of 40–65% for lithium and gold explorers such as LithiumBank Resources, Abcourt Mines and Pure Energy Minerals, driven by rising lithium prices and company‑specific milestones. ^[36]

These names are small and volatile, but their performance underscores how battery metals and gold remain two of the most powerful thematic drivers across Canadian equity markets.

U.S. Market Backdrop: Volatile but Higher

Canadian equities also took their cue from Wall Street’s rebound on Friday:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 1.1%, nearly 500 points, to 46,245.41.
The S&P 500 gained 1.0% to 6,602.99.
The Nasdaq Composite added 0.9%. ^[37]

Despite the strong finish, all three major U.S. indexes still logged weekly losses, reflecting the same “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” pattern that Canadian strategists see in the TSX. ^[38]

Concerns over AI valuations, delayed U.S. economic data because of the government shutdown, and uncertainty about the Fed’s rate path have all contributed to this volatility — and those global themes are filtering into Canadian tech and financial stocks as well. ^[39]

What Canada Stock Market Investors Are Watching Next

As of Saturday, November 22, 2025, here are the key forward‑looking themes for investors tracking the Canada stock market today:

Q3 GDP and September GDP by industry (Nov. 28): Confirmation (or contradiction) of RBC’s forecast for a 0.5% annualized rebound will be crucial for growth‑sensitive sectors and BoC expectations. ^[40]
BoC’s Dec. 10 rate decision: Markets are balancing slower consumer data against inflation near target and global easing signals. Any hint of earlier‑than‑expected cuts could further lift rate‑sensitive stocks. ^[41]
Oil and gold price trends: With energy under pressure and gold strong, relative performance between energy and materials/gold miners could continue to diverge. ^[42]
Canada–UAE trade and investment follow‑through: Concrete project announcements stemming from the FIPA and planned CEPA could create stock‑specific catalysts in infrastructure, engineering, energy and logistics. ^[43]
Global risk sentiment: With U.S. markets still whipsawing on AI and Fed narratives, cross‑border flows will remain a major driver for Canadian large caps like banks, railways and Shopify. ^[44]

For now, the headline story is clear:
The TSX is finishing a choppy week on a high note, powered by rate‑cut optimism, resource strength and tech resilience, even as retail sales, housing data and a weaker loonie quietly remind investors that Canada’s economy is losing some steam beneath the surface.

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