Federal Reserve News Today, November 22, 2025: Collins Pushes Back as Williams Revives December Rate‑Cut Bets

WASHINGTON / NEW YORK — November 22, 2025

The US Federal Reserve heads into its December 9–10 policy meeting with one of the messiest setups in years: senior officials are openly split, key economic data are missing because of a historic government shutdown, and markets keep violently repricing the odds of another interest‑rate cut.

On Saturday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she is still “hesitant” to support a December rate cut, even as comments from New York Fed President John Williams a day earlier turbo‑charged market bets that another move lower is coming “in the near term.” ^[1]

Below is a detailed rundown of everything that matters in Federal Reserve news for today, November 22, 2025, and how it all fits together.

Today’s Fed Snapshot: November 22, 2025

Collins leans against a December cut. Boston Fed chief Susan Collins says policy is now “mildly restrictive” and appropriate after two cuts this fall, and she still sees “reasons to be hesitant” about lowering rates again at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting. ^[2]
Williams rekindles rate‑cut hopes. A Friday speech by New York Fed President John Williams, saying there is “room for a further adjustment in the near term,” pushed futures‑implied odds of a December cut from roughly 35–40% to around 70% and sparked a strong rally in stocks and Treasuries. ^[3]
Markets are wagering on one more cut this year. CME FedWatch probabilities now put the chance of a third 2025 cut at roughly two‑thirds to three‑quarters, up from about 39% just a day earlier, according to Reuters and crypto‑market coverage that tracks FedWatch in real time. ^[4]
But the Fed itself is sharply divided. FOMC minutes from the October 28–29 meeting show many policymakers were opposed to another rate cut in December, citing inflation still around 3% and concerns about looking too soft on price stability. ^[5]
Fresh data: inflation ~3%, unemployment 4.4%. Delayed September figures show the jobless rate up to 4.4% (a near four‑year high) and annual CPI inflation at 3.0%, while the entire October CPI report has been cancelledbecause statisticians cannot reconstruct data lost in the 43‑day government shutdown. ^[6]
Board releases new survey & pushes back stress‑test deadline. The Fed published the latest Senior Financial Officer Survey on banks’ reserve‑management strategies and extended the comment deadline on its big stress‑test‑transparency proposal to February 21, 2026. ^[7]
New governor Miran targets “regulatory dominance”. Governor Stephen Miran is pushing to change leverage rules so banks hold more Treasuries and fewer reserves, arguing that regulation—not economics—has forced the Fed into an oversized balance sheet. ^[8]

Put simply: markets are leaning dovish, some Fed officials are loudly dovish, and others are just as loudly skeptical.Let’s break down each piece.

Collins: Policy Is in the “Right Place” — and She’s Not Sold on a December Cut

Speaking at a conference at the Boston Fed on Saturday, Susan Collins delivered the clearest “not so fast” message investors have heard since Williams’ comments lit up markets. ^[9]

Key points from Collins:

She said she “does see reasons to be hesitant” about cutting the federal funds rate again at the December meeting.
Collins argued that, after two quarter‑point cuts in September and October, policy is now “in the kind of mildly restrictive range” and “appropriate” given current economic conditions.
She highlighted risks on both sides of the mandate:
- Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% goal (about 3% year‑over‑year on CPI). ^[10]
- The labour market is clearly softening, but not collapsing, with unemployment at 4.4% and job growth slower but still positive. ^[11]

Collins’ stance matters because it shows that not everyone was persuaded by Williams’ dovish tone. It also mirrors comments from other regional presidents like Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan, who has argued for holding rates steady to better assess the impact of the cuts already delivered. ^[12]

For markets, Collins’ remarks are a reminder that a December cut is not a done deal — even if futures pricing suddenly says otherwise.

Williams: “Room for a Further Adjustment in the Near Term”

Friday’s drama began in Santiago, Chile, where New York Fed President John Williams delivered a speech on inflation targeting and monetary policy. In that speech, he described policy as “modestly restrictive” and said he still sees “room for a further adjustment in the near term” to move rates closer to neutral. ^[13]

Markets pounced on those words:

Fed futures: Odds of a December rate cut jumped from the high‑30s to around 70%, according to Bloomberg and Reuters analysis of CME FedWatch pricing. ^[14]
Stocks: A broad rally on Friday sent the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq up roughly 1.5–1.8%, reversing the prior day’s sell‑off. ^[15]
Bonds: Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 2‑year note — most sensitive to Fed expectations — dropping about 4 basis points. ^[16]
Crypto: In the Bitcoin world, an article that tracks CME FedWatch noted that rate‑cut odds nearly doubled to about 69% within 24 hours, and traders immediately framed the shift as a potential lifeline after a brutal week for digital assets. ^[17]

Williams did not explicitly promise a December move, and his prepared remarks stressed that any decision will still depend on the “totality of the data.” ^[18]

But the signal was strong enough that analysts at Evercore ISI and other firms interpreted “near term” as effectively putting the December meeting “back on the table,” especially given Williams’ reputation as a centrist close to Chair Jerome Powell. ^[19]

FOMC Minutes: Many Officials Were Opposed to a December Cut

Just three days earlier, the official minutes from the October 28–29 FOMC meeting painted a very different picture.

The Fed cut rates by a quarter point at that meeting — its second cut this year, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. ^[20]
But the minutes, released November 19, reveal that “many” policymakers were opposed to signalling another cut in December, given that inflation remains above target and some worry that price pressures could stall out around 3%. ^[21]
Officials also flagged financial‑stability concerns, including stretched equity valuations and the rapid growth of private credit — themes echoed in later speeches by Governor Lisa Cook. ^[22]

Put bluntly, the minutes made a December cut look unlikely — right up until Williams spoke. That whiplash is a big reason why today’s commentary is full of phrases like “confusion reigns” and “no one seems to agree on the Fed’s next move.” ^[23]

Data Mess: Shutdown‑Delayed Jobs, Missing Inflation, and a 4.4% Unemployment Rate

Normally by late November, the Fed would have a full set of Q4 inflation and labour‑market data in hand. Not this year.

What we know

Jobs:
- The delayed September employment report, released this week after a 43‑day government shutdown, showed the US adding about 119,000 jobs, beating forecasts but far below last year’s pace. ^[24]
- The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 and up from 4.1% a year earlier. ^[25]
Inflation:
- September CPI rose 3.0% year‑over‑year, up slightly from 2.9% in August, with monthly inflation at 0.3%. ^[26]
- That keeps inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal but far below the peaks of 2022–23.
October CPI is simply gone.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled the October inflation report altogether, saying it cannot retrospectively collect the data lost during the shutdown. ^[27]

Governor Christopher Waller — one of the more outspoken doves — argued in a November 17 speech that, even with missing official data, private indicators and state‑level jobless claims clearly point to a weakening labour market and slowing growth. He said this “reading of the data” leads him to support another rate cut at the December meeting as a risk‑management step. ^[28]

Waller’s position, combined with Williams’ “near term” language, helps explain why markets moved so aggressively despite the Fed’s own minutes sounding cautious.

New Fed Research & Speeches: Financial Stability, AI, and the Balance Sheet

Beyond pure rate‑cut chatter, the Fed pushed out a wave of policy content this week that gives important context for today’s debate.

1. Senior Financial Officer Survey: Banks and “Ample” Reserves

On Friday, the Fed released the latest Senior Financial Officer Survey, covering banks that hold roughly three‑quarters of system reserves. ^[29]

In broad strokes, the survey suggests:

Most large banks still view aggregate reserves as “ample” or slightly above comfortable levels, consistent with the Fed’s current floor‑system approach.
Many institutions expect to gradually reduce reserves as interest rates move lower, relying more on alternative funding sources.
The survey helps the Fed gauge how far it can eventually shrink its balance sheet without causing money‑market stress.

Given Miran’s push to rethink regulations that drive reserve demand (more on that next), the SFOS is likely to play a bigger‑than‑usual role in internal balance‑sheet debates.

2. Stress‑Test Transparency: Comment Period Extended

The Board also extended the comment deadline on its high‑profile proposal to make supervisory stress‑test models and scenarios more transparent and accountable. Comments on the transparency proposal are now due February 21, 2026, while comments on the specific 2026 stress‑test scenarios remain due December 1, 2025. ^[30]

Banks and legal advisers have been poring over the plan, which would:

Provide more detail on key model drivers.
Formalise a scenario‑design policy statement.
Adjust timelines so banks get earlier notice of scenario changes.

For markets today, this is more medium‑term plumbing than immediate rate news, but it underscores how actively the Fed is retooling its toolkit while it debates the policy path.

3. Miran’s “Regulatory Dominance” Speech: A Smaller Fed Balance Sheet?

New Governor Stephen Miran is already shaking up how insiders think about the Fed’s massive balance sheet.

In a November 19 speech titled “Regulatory Dominance of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet” at a Bank Policy Institute / Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council event, Miran argued that: ^[31]

For all the talk about “fiscal dominance,” the size of the Fed’s balance sheet is really being driven by regulation, which pushes banks to hold huge piles of reserves.
As regulators “right‑size the regulations,” Miran hopes the Fed can shrink its balance sheet further, reducing the need to pay large amounts of interest on reserves.
He floats the idea of excluding Treasuries (and possibly some repo exposures) from leverage ratios, so banks can hold more Treasuries and fewer reserves without being penalised.
He supported ending balance‑sheet runoff promptly at the October FOMC meeting, but stressed that stopping now doesn’t mean shrinking is over forever — especially if the regulatory environment changes.

For markets, Miran’s framework matters less for December’s rate decision and more for the multi‑year path of reserves, QE unwind, and bank‑liquidity rules.

4. Cook & Jefferson: Financial Stability and AI Risks

Two other Board members added nuance on the financial‑stability side:

Governor Lisa Cook, chair of the Board’s Committee on Financial Stability, used a November 20 speech at Georgetown to highlight three key vulnerabilities:
- Elevated asset valuations, especially in sectors tied to AI and high‑growth tech.
- A structural shift toward private credit, away from traditional bank lending.
- The growing role of hedge funds in the Treasury market, which could amplify stress in a sell‑off. ^[32]
Vice Chair Philip Jefferson followed on November 21 with a speech on AI, the economy and financial stability, examining how artificial intelligence might both raise and reduce systemic risk, depending on how it’s used in finance and the broader economy. ^[33]

Neither Cook nor Jefferson directly weighed in on a December cut, but both framed the current environment as one where policy mistakes could show up not just in inflation and unemployment, but in market fragilities as well.

Markets, Morgan Stanley, and the Analyst Split

If you’re confused, you’re in good company — so are Wall Street strategists.

A widely circulated Barron’s piece today describes investors, analysts and Fed officials as “increasingly torn,” with the December decision now seen as a “close call” even after the Williams‑driven repricing. ^[34]
Morgan Stanley this week dropped its call for a December cut after the strong September jobs report, pushing its base case to three cuts in 2026 instead. ^[35]
Other houses, including Citi and Deutsche Bank, still see a December move as likely, citing the unemployment uptick and the risk of a more pronounced slowdown if the Fed waits. ^[36]

The upshot: even professional Fed‑watchers are split, and the Fed itself is giving them plenty of mixed signals to work with.

Crypto and Risk Assets: Fed Talk as a Macro Catalyst

Fed chatter isn’t just moving Treasuries and the S&P.

Bitcoin has had its worst month since 2022, trading in the mid‑$80,000s and down more than 12% over the week, according to crypto‑market trackers. ^[37]
As rate‑cut odds spiked to nearly 69–73%, crypto analysts rushed to frame a December Fed move as a potential turning point that could stabilise risk appetite and support a rebound in digital assets. ^[38]

At the same time, some market commentary warns that AI‑driven bubbles and fragile speculative positioning could make risk assets more sensitive than usual to any Fed surprise — in either direction. ^[39]

What It All Means Heading Into the December 9–10 FOMC Meeting

Here’s how today’s information lines up:

The economic backdrop is deteriorating, but not collapsing.
- Unemployment at 4.4% and slower job growth point to a softer labour market.
- Inflation around 3% is uncomfortably above target but not spiralling. ^[40]
Policy is already easier than it was a few months ago.
- The Fed has delivered two quarter‑point cuts this year, taking the funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. ^[41]
The committee is genuinely split.
- Doves like Waller (and, judging from his language, Williams) see a weak labour market and anchored expectations as reasons to cut again now. ^[42]
- Hawks like Collins and Logan emphasise still‑elevated inflation and want more time to see how previous cuts filter through. ^[43]
Missing data and shutdown noise raise the risk of a policy error.
- With no October CPI, delayed jobs data and unusual revisions, officials are — in Powell’s words earlier this week — “driving in the fog.” ^[44]
Behind the scenes, the Fed is also rewriting the rulebook.
- New stress‑test rules, reserve‑management surveys and Miran’s regulatory agenda could all reshape how the Fed implements policy over the next few years. ^[45]

For borrowers and investors

If the Fed cuts in December, markets will likely interpret it as confirmation that labour‑market risks now outweigh inflation worries. Expect lower short‑term yields, some relief in borrowing costs, and potentially more fuel for risk assets — though the Fed will still stress that cuts are not a blank cheque.
If the Fed holds, expect a hawkish‑hold message emphasising data uncertainty, financial‑stability risks, and a willingness to act in early 2026 if conditions deteriorate.

Either way, after this week’s speeches and today’s comments from Collins, it’s clear that the Fed has not pre‑committed— and that December’s decision will probably come down to the last pieces of data and how officials weigh very different risks.

This article is based on publicly available information as of November 22, 2025, and is intended for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice.

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