Japan Stock Market Today, 24 November 2025: Holiday Closure, BoJ Hike Bets and Global Cues to Watch

Japan’s cash equity market is closed on Monday, 24 November 2025 for the Labor Thanksgiving Day substitute holiday, but derivatives trading is open and global markets are anything but quiet. That makes the next 24–48 hours crucial in setting the tone for when the Nikkei 225 and Topix reopen on Tuesday. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at what investors need to know before Japan’s stock market resumes full trading.

Key takeaways for 24–25 November 2025

Cash equities are shut on Monday: The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed on 24 November for the Labor Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 23) observed market holiday. ^[2]
But derivatives are trading: Osaka Exchange and TOCOM derivatives – including Nikkei 225 futures – run a special holiday trading session on Monday, giving investors a live gauge of sentiment. ^[3]
Nikkei just had a sharp pull‑back: On Friday, the Nikkei 225 fell 2.4% to around 48,626, and the Topix slipped to about 3,298, extending a volatile week and leaving the index roughly 5% below late‑October record highs above 51,000. ^[4]
Growth is slowing, inflation isn’t: Q3 GDP contracted at an annualised ‑1.8%, hit by U.S. tariffs and weaker exports, even as inflation stayed at 3.0% in October, above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. ^[5]
BoJ is edging toward a December rate hike: Multiple BoJ board members have signalled support for another increase, and markets now see the 18–19 December meeting as a live event for a move from 0.5% to around 0.75%. ^[6]
Huge stimulus, huge market worries: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ¥21.3 trillion (about $135bn) stimulus – the biggest since COVID – has pushed the yen near a 10‑month low and sent super‑long JGB yields to record highs, fuelling a “sell Japan” narrative. ^[7]
Global backdrop is fragile: AI‑heavy tech stocks are wobbling worldwide, oil prices are sliding, and investors are torn between worries over valuations and fresh bets on a December U.S. rate cut. ^[8]
Big data ahead: Tokyo inflation, Japan labour data and industrial production later this week – plus U.S. releases – will shape both BoJ expectations and the direction of the yen.

Is the Japan stock market open on Monday, 24 November 2025?

No – the main cash stock market is closed.

Japan’s exchanges observe Labor Thanksgiving Day (a national holiday on 23 November). Because it falls on a Sunday this year, Monday, 24 November is treated as the substitute holiday. The Japan Exchange Group’s 2025 calendar explicitly lists Nov. 24 (Mon.) “Labor Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 23) observed” as a market holiday, meaning the regular stock market is shut. ^[9]

However, there is trading to watch:

The derivatives market – including Nikkei 225 futures and other index contracts – will be open for “holiday trading” on Monday, according to JPX notices on Osaka Exchange and TOCOM. ^[10]

That means global investors effectively get a real‑time read on Japan risk sentiment even while cash shares and ETFs on the Tokyo Stock Exchange remain closed.

The next full cash session for Japanese stocks is Tuesday, 25 November 2025.

How Japanese stocks closed before the holiday

Friday’s session set a cautious tone heading into the long weekend:

The Nikkei 225 fell about 2.4% to 48,625.88, tracking a global sell‑off and reversing part of its massive October rally. ^[11]
The Topix large‑cap index dipped around 0.06% to roughly 3,298, suggesting heavy pressure was concentrated in high‑beta and tech names rather than the broader market. ^[12]

The weekly picture is even starker. Earlier in the week, the Nikkei dropped more than 3% in a single session, its biggest fall since April, as AI‑linked tech stocks slumped and U.S. economic uncertainty spooked global investors. ^[13]

This comes only weeks after the index’s historic climb:

On 29 October, the Nikkei crossed the 51,000 mark for the first time ever, powered by enthusiasm for AI and chip‑related stocks, and delivered its best monthly gain in about three decades. ^[14]

The subsequent reversal – from euphoria to a “sell Japan” narrative in just a few weeks – is a key theme for investors as they position for the next leg.

Macro backdrop: growth slows while prices stay firm

Q3 GDP: first contraction in six quarters

Japan’s economy shrank in the July–September quarter:

Annualised GDP: ‑1.8% q/q, the first decline in six quarters. ^[15]
The contraction was driven largely by weak exports, especially from automakers, as new U.S. tariffs – including a baseline 15% duty on many Japanese goods – hit overseas demand. ^[16]

There were some offsets:

Capital expenditure grew about 1.0%, beating expectations.
Private consumption still eked out a small gain (around 0.1%), though momentum is clearly slowing as households face higher prices. ^[17]

Separate data show exports in value terms were still up 3.6% year‑on‑year in October, helped by the weaker yen, suggesting external demand is softer but not collapsing. ^[18]

Inflation: still above target

Inflation has not backed down:

Core consumer prices rose 3.0% year‑on‑year in October, up from 2.9% in September and marking the 50th straight month of gains. ^[19]
Overall CPI is likewise running at around 3%, staying above the BoJ’s 2% target for over three years. ^[20]
In Tokyo, a leading indicator for nationwide inflation, Tokyo CPI and core CPI both rose about 2.8% YoY in October, reinforcing the picture of persistent, broad‑based price pressures. ^[21]

Labour market and activity indicators

The unemployment rate remains low at 2.6% (September), slightly above market expectations but historically tight. ^[22]
Labour cash earnings are running close to 2% YoY, and major unions have secured wage increases above 5% this year, continuing a three‑year run of robust pay growth. ^[23]
PMI data show manufacturing is still in contraction (flash Manufacturing PMI 48.8 in November) but improving from October, while services remain firm at around 53.1. The composite PMI stands near 52, marking an eighth straight month of overall expansion. ^[24]

Taken together, Japan enters the holiday with a slowing but not recessionary economy, persistent inflation and a tight labour market – exactly the mix that typically pushes a central bank toward further tightening.

BoJ on the brink of a December rate hike

The Bank of Japan has already exited negative rates and twice raised its policy rate this year, to 0.5%. Now markets are debating whether the next step – potentially to 0.75% – comes at the 18–19 December policy meeting. ^[25]

Recent comments from officials are notably hawkish:

BoJ board member Junko Koeda argued last week that the bank should continue raising rates to bring real interest rates toward equilibrium, emphasising strong corporate profits and persistent inflation. ^[26]
Fellow board member Kazuyuki Masu told Japanese media the BoJ is “nearing” a decision to raise rates and would not wait until spring wage talks conclude, explicitly flagging the December meeting as a live option. ^[27]
A recent Reuters survey and market pricing now lean toward a December hike, though analysts differ on whether it is fully baked in or still “on a knife edge.” ^[28]

On the markets side:

The 10‑year JGB yield recently touched about 1.84%, its highest level since 2008. ^[29]
The 40‑year yield jumped to around 3.7%, an all‑time high, and 30‑year and 20‑year yields have also surged to levels not seen in decades. ^[30]

This bond‑market stress, combined with a weak yen and sliding equities, has created what some commentators describe as a “triple shock” for Japan – and puts even more scrutiny on data releases between now and the December meeting. ^[31]

Takaichi’s ¥21.3 trillion stimulus and the “sell Japan” narrative

At the political level, the big story is Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s newly approved stimulus.

On 21 November, the cabinet signed off on a ¥21.3 trillion (about $135bn) package, including 17.7 trillion yen in general account spending and 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts – the largest stimulus since the pandemic. ^[32]
Measures range from energy subsidies and gas tax cuts to cash handouts and rice coupons, aimed at offsetting higher living costs and mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s exporters. ^[33]

Markets, however, are uneasy:

The yen briefly slumped to around 157.9 per dollar, a near 10‑month low, before paring losses, and is still trading in the mid‑156s. ^[34]
Super‑long JGB yields have spiked: the 40‑year yield touched about 3.68%, and 30‑year yields rose above 3.4%, as investors question Japan’s fiscal trajectory. ^[35]
Analysts describe a growing “sell Japan” trade, with rising yields, a falling yen and sliding equities all flashing warning signs on confidence in Japan’s policy mix. ^[36]

One Bloomberg analysis estimates that roughly $127 billion in value has been wiped off Tokyo‑listed stocks over the past week as markets reassess Takaichi’s approach from yen to bonds. ^[37]

Sector stress: tourism and China risk

The picture is complicated further by geopolitics:

Tourism and retail shares slumped after China advised its citizens against travelling to Japan amid escalating tensions over Taiwan. Department‑store operator Isetan Mitsukoshi dropped more than 10%, Tokyo Disneyland operator Oriental Land nearly 6%, and Japan Airlines about 4% in one session. ^[38]

That makes tourism‑exposed names and China‑sensitive consumer stocks key areas to watch when trading resumes.

Global cues: AI wobble, Fed ambiguity and cheaper oil

Japan doesn’t trade in isolation, and global markets have had a turbulent November.

Tech and AI volatility

Global equities sold off sharply earlier in the week as investors reassessed high valuations in AI‑linked mega‑cap tech stocks, with Japan and South Korea among the heaviest hit markets. ^[39]
The MSCI Asia‑Pacific ex‑Japan Index fell about 2.8% on Friday, underscoring broad risk‑off sentiment in the region. ^[40]

Fed rate‑cut bets and Wall Street

On Friday, Wall Street rallied, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all up around 1% as markets latched onto comments from New York Fed President John Williams hinting at the possibility of a near‑term rate cut. ^[41]
Even so, all three major U.S. indices finished the week lower, as earlier tech‑driven losses outweighed the late rebound. ^[42]
A fresh weekend piece from Reuters warns that investors are bracing for “turbulent year‑end” trading, caught between AI valuation worries and uncertainty over how quickly the Fed will ease. ^[43]

For Japan, the Fed story matters primarily through the yen and global risk appetite. Any shift in U.S. yields and dollar strength can amplify or partially offset domestic forces on USD/JPY.

Oil slide and what it means for Japan

Oil prices have fallen for three consecutive sessions, with Brent around $61–62 and WTI near $58, down roughly 3–4% on the week amid hopes for progress toward a Russia‑Ukraine peace deal and signs of weaker demand. ^[44]

Japan, as a major energy importer, typically benefits from cheaper oil via improved trade balances and some relief on headline inflation – but in the current environment, the oil slide is also a signal that global growth expectations are softening, which can weigh on exporters.

Key Japan data and events in focus this week

The week starting 24 November is data‑heavy for Japan and will be closely watched by BoJ watchers and FX traders alike.

Labour market and industrial data (late week)

According to major economic calendars:

October unemployment rate is due later this week, with consensus expecting a dip to about 2.5% from 2.6%. ^[45]
Industrial production (October, preliminary) is scheduled around the same time, with forecasters looking for a modest pull‑back after a strong September rebound. ^[46]

These releases will show whether the manufacturing slowdown seen in the PMI data is feeding through to hard activity numbers and jobs.

Tokyo CPI (November) – a key BoJ signal

Tokyo CPI for November – a crucial leading indicator for nationwide inflation – is set for release late in the week (Thursday night/Friday local time). ^[47]
Consensus expects core Tokyo CPI (excluding fresh food) to rise around 2.7–2.8% YoY, roughly in line with October. ^[48]

If Tokyo inflation surprises on the upside again, it will strengthen the case for a December BoJ hike – and could put additional pressure on long‑dated JGBs and the yen.

BoJ calendar and communications

The next Monetary Policy Meeting is on 18–19 December, and markets are already primed for a possible move. ^[49]
Investor attention will focus on any BoJ speeches or interviews in the coming days that echo or temper the recent hawkish tone from board members Koeda and Masu. ^[50]

What it all could mean when the Nikkei 225 and Topix reopen

When cash trading resumes on Tuesday, 25 November, investors will have to digest:

Two days of global moves in U.S. and European stocks.
Monday’s holiday session in Nikkei futures and JGBs.
Any fresh headlines on stimulus, BoJ communication or geopolitics.

A few scenarios to keep in mind:

1. Currency and bond moves drive sector rotation

If USD/JPY remains elevated near recent levels around 156–157, exporters – particularly autos, machinery and chip‑equipment makers – could find support, as overseas earnings translate into more yen. ^[51]
At the same time, rising long‑term yields and concerns about bond‑portfolio losses may keep pressure on some banks and insurers, even though higher rates are theoretically good for net interest margins. ^[52]

2. Tech and AI names remain volatile

Given the global wobble in AI‑linked stocks, Japanese semiconductor names and AI beneficiaries may continue to see outsized swings as investors debate valuations and cyclical risk. ^[53]

3. Domestic demand and “bond‑proxy” stocks under scrutiny

Rate‑sensitive areas – like real estate, high‑dividend utilities and REITs – may lag if super‑long yields stay near record highs, as investors reassess the appeal of equity income versus safer bond yields. ^[54]

4. Tourism, retail and China‑linked plays in the crosshairs

With China warning its citizens against travelling to Japan, tourism, department stores, duty‑free retailers and airlinescould remain under pressure, especially if the diplomatic spat shows no sign of easing. ^[55]

Practical checklist for investors before Japan reopens

Going into Monday’s holiday session and Tuesday’s full reopen, many traders will be watching:

Nikkei 225 and Topix futures on Osaka and overseas exchanges during Monday’s holiday trading. ^[56]
USD/JPY and yen crosses, especially if fresh U.S. data or Fed comments move Treasury yields. ^[57]
Super‑long JGB yields and any signs of instability in the bond market as markets digest the stimulus package and BoJ hike expectations. ^[58]
Progress on the supplementary budget for the stimulus as it moves toward parliamentary approval, and any hints of further measures or fiscal constraints. ^[59]
Headlines on BoJ speeches or leaks that might shift the perceived odds of a December hike. ^[60]
Developments in U.S. and European equity markets, particularly tech, as AI sentiment remains a key driver of global risk. ^[61]
Any escalation or easing of China‑Japan diplomatic tensions, given the outsized importance of Chinese tourists and trade. ^[62]

Bottom line

Japan enters the 24 November holiday in a delicate position:

Equities have pulled back sharply from record highs.
The yen is weak, yet bond yields are surging.
Growth has stumbled, while inflation and wages keep the BoJ under pressure to tighten – just as the government unleashes a massive fiscal package.

How those forces interact over the next few days – through the yen, JGBs, global risk sentiment and incoming data – will shape the Nikkei 225 and Topix’s next move when the market fully reopens.

This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making trading or investment decisions.

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