TeraWulf (WULF) Stock: 9% Pullback Tests Nerves as Google‑Backed AI Pivot Draws Fresh Analyst Upgrades

Published: 23 November 2025

TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: WULF) heads into the new week on a shaky footing after a sharp sell‑off, even as fresh research today highlights the company as a potentially undervalued winner of the AI data‑center boom.

On Friday, WULF shares dropped 9.1%, trading as low as $10.53 before last changing hands around $10.51, on volume roughly two‑thirds below the recent average. The stock had previously closed at $11.56. ^[1]

Yet despite the pullback, TeraWulf remains one of 2025’s standout high‑beta stories. Over the past year the stock has traded between $2.06 and $17.05, and is still up more than 60% year‑on‑year and nearly 450% above its 52‑week low, according to Barchart and Investing.com data. ^[2]

A new valuation deep‑dive from Simply Wall St, published today, argues the market may still be underpricing TeraWulf’s AI infrastructure pivot, estimating a fair value of about $21.29 per share – almost double Friday’s close – even as it warns about stretched sales multiples and heavy capital needs. ^[3] At the same time, an American Market News piece this morning focuses on Friday’s slide and the company’s growing debt load, even while noting strong support from Wall Street analysts. ^[4]

Below is what investors need to know about the latest move in WULF stock, its Google‑backed AI strategy, and where analysts now stand.

WULF stock slides 9% after a wild month

Friday’s drop capped an exceptionally volatile stretch for TeraWulf:

Intraday range: $10.53–$11.56 on Friday, vs. a recent day range of roughly $10.47–$11.78. ^[5]
Volume: 14.2 million shares changed hands, about 68% below the average session volume of 45.0 million. ^[6]
Trend: Over the last month WULF has fallen about 14% from its late‑October peak near $17.05, but remains up ~100% year‑to‑date. ^[7]

Technically, the stock now trades under its 50‑day moving average of $12.81 but comfortably above its 200‑day average of $8.13, keeping the longer‑term uptrend intact despite short‑term weakness. ^[8]

Fundamentally, the market is wrestling with a company that combines hyper‑growth with heavy losses and leverage:

Market cap: ~$4.7 billion ^[9]
Trailing revenue (last 12 months): about $167.6 million ^[10]
Net loss (TTM): roughly $560+ million ^[11]
P/E: negative (loss‑making); P/S ≈ 28x, far above software and crypto‑peer averages. ^[12]
Balance sheet: current ratio 0.66; debt‑to‑equity about 3x. ^[13]

In simple terms: the equity is riding a powerful AI narrative, but the numbers still scream “high risk, high volatility.”

From bitcoin miner to AI data‑center operator – with Google in the mix

TeraWulf began life as a zero‑carbon bitcoin miner, but 2025 has been the year it aggressively rebranded as a high‑performance computing (HPC) and AI hosting platform.

Lake Mariner: core AI and bitcoin hub

At its flagship Lake Mariner Campus in Barker, New York, TeraWulf now runs both bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure:

245 MW of bitcoin‑mining capacity deployed as of 30 September 2025.
22.5 MW of HPC capacity energized at the same site. ^[14]

Through subsidiaries La Lupa Data and Akela Data, the company has signed over 520 MW of long‑term HPC leases with enterprise and hyperscale customers. ^[15]

Key deals include:

Core42 leases: 72.5 MW of GPU‑optimized capacity at Lake Mariner, with around $1.1 billion in contracted revenue over 10 years. ^[16]
Fluidstack leases (New York): three 10‑year leases for 450 MW of HPC capacity, worth about $6.7 billion in contracted revenue, backed by Google credit enhancement and financed via long‑term project debt. ^[17]

Abernathy JV: expanding into Texas AI compute

In October, TeraWulf announced the Abernathy Joint Venture in Texas, again partnering with Fluidstack and leveraging Google’s backing:

Initial design for 240 MW of AI‑ready capacity, with potential expansion up to 600 MW.
A 25‑year lease backed by roughly $1.3 billion of Google support for Fluidstack’s obligations, materially improving the credit profile of the project. ^[18]

Importantly, TeraWulf retains up to a 51% controlling interest in the JV and has rights to participate in a future ~200 MW Fluidstack project on similar terms, deepening its long‑term growth pipeline. ^[19]

How big is Google’s stake really?

Several crypto‑oriented sites and social posts have claimed Google is now the “main shareholder” in TeraWulf. The filings paint a more nuanced picture:

Google has warrants tied to its lease guarantees, initially equating to about 8% pro‑forma equity. ^[20]
Following an August expansion at Lake Mariner, Google’s total backstop commitment rose to around $3.2 billion, and its potential stake to roughly 14% via additional warrants. ^[21]

That makes Google a major strategic investor and creditor, not a controlling owner. The partnership is still central to the story: rating agencies such as S&P highlight the alignment of incentives created by Google’s warrants and guarantee structure when assessing TeraWulf’s new debt. ^[22]

Q3 2025: revenue surges 87% but losses balloon

TeraWulf’s third‑quarter 2025 earnings, released on 10 November, gave the first real look at the economics of its AI pivot. ^[23]

Headline numbers:

Revenue: $50.6 million, up 87% year‑over‑year (from $27.1 million).
HPC lease revenue: $7.2 million – the first quarter with meaningful AI hosting income. ^[24]
Net loss:$455.1 million for the quarter, driven largely by a $424.6 million non‑cash loss on warrant and derivative liabilities, plus higher operating and SG&A expenses as the platform scales. ^[25]
EPS:–$1.13, missing the consensus estimate of roughly –$0.04 by a wide margin, according to American Market News and Investing.com. ^[26]
Margins: negative net margin around –91%; return on equity about –55%. ^[27]

Management framed the quarter as “transformational,” emphasizing:

More than $17 billion in long‑term, credit‑enhanced customer contracts.
Over $5 billion in newly secured long‑term financings to support the rapidly expanding HPC platform. ^[28]

However, the numbers underline a core reality: cash flows and accounting earnings have not yet caught up with the scale of the commitments, and investors are being asked to look several years out.

Funding the AI build‑out: $3.2 billion in bonds and big convertibles

To finance this growth, TeraWulf has been extremely active in the debt markets in 2025.

Key pieces of the capital stack include:

$3.2 billion 7.75% senior secured notes due 2030
- Issued by WULF Compute LLC in a private Rule 144A offering to institutional investors.
- Proceeds fund the expansion of Lake Mariner’s data‑center campus.
- Notes are secured by first‑priority liens on substantially all of WULF Compute’s assets, certain equity pledges, and – until completion – a pledge by Google of warrants to purchase TeraWulf stock. ^[29]
- Investing.com notes that this bond is part of a broader wave of AI‑related “junk” debt issuance, with S&P assigning TeraWulf a BB‑ rating. ^[30]
Convertible notes
- $1.0 billion 1.00% convertible notes due 2031 and $1.025 billion 0.00% convertible notes due 2032, used to fund HPC expansion and equity contributions to the Abernathy JV. ^[31]

As of 30 September 2025, TeraWulf reported:

Cash and restricted cash: $712.8 million
Total debt: roughly $1.5 billion (primarily convertible notes at that date, before the bond completion flowed through). ^[32]

The trade‑off is clear: the capital structure gives TeraWulf the firepower to sign multi‑billion‑dollar AI hosting contracts, but also leaves equity holders highly exposed to execution risk, interest‑rate conditions, and future dilution from warrants and converts.

What Wall Street is saying after the pullback

Despite the volatility, analyst sentiment remains broadly positive. Over the past month, several firms have raised their targets following the Google‑backed Fluidstack deals and Q3 update:

Roth/MKM: price target increased from $24 to $26, highest on the Street, with a Buy rating; the firm cites TeraWulf’s larger‑than‑expected power pipeline and potential for 250–500 MW of new contracted critical IT load (CITL) annually. ^[33]
B. Riley Securities: target lifted from $22 to $23 (Buy). ^[34]
Rosenblatt: Buy rating with a $24 target; Needham: Buy, $21 target; Citizens: “Market Outperform” with a $22 target. ^[35]
JMP Securities, Compass Point, Citigroup and Oppenheimer also cover the name, with a mix of Buy/Outperform and one Sell, according to MarketBeat’s aggregation. ^[36]

Across different data providers, the consensus shakes out as follows:

Average 12‑month target: roughly $16–20 per share, depending on the dataset. MarketBeat pegs it at $18.42, GuruFocus at $20.02, while StockAnalysis shows about $16.71. ^[37]
High / low: Street‑high target $26, low around $9.50. ^[38]
Rating: ranges from “Moderate Buy” (MarketBeat) to “Strong Buy” (StockAnalysis), with the majority of analysts in the Buy/Outperform camp. ^[39]

In short, most analysts still see upside from current levels, but the gap between bullish price targets and the company’s negative earnings profile highlights how much depends on flawless execution of its AI strategy.

Valuation debate: undervalued rocket or priced for perfection?

Today’s Simply Wall St article brings the valuation debate into sharper focus:

Their discounted‑cash‑flow‑style model concludes that WULF is about 47% undervalued, with a fair value estimate of $21.29 versus a recent close of $11.29. ^[40]
However, they also flag that TeraWulf trades on a price‑to‑sales ratio of ~28x, far above the US software sector’s ~4.6x average and even a peer group average near 16.8x. ^[41]

GuruFocus, which applies its own “GF Value” framework, actually sees downside relative to its intrinsic value estimate of $9.79, even while noting strong revenue momentum and a consensus “Outperform” rating from brokers. ^[42]

Put together, the picture looks like this:

Bull case: The market is underestimating the durability and profitability of long‑dated, Google‑enhanced AI hosting contracts, which could transform TeraWulf from a cyclical bitcoin miner into a cash‑generating digital‑infrastructure utility.
Bear case: The stock already discounts optimistic growth and margin assumptions, while leverage, customer concentration (Fluidstack / Google), and execution risk are all elevated. Any stumble on build‑outs, financing, or AI demand could hit the equity hard.

Given the wide spread between valuation models and price targets, investors are clearly paying for a story still in the early innings.

Key risks to watch

Beyond standard market and crypto volatility, several specific risks stand out:

Leverage & interest‑rate risk
- The $3.2 billion bond and sizeable convertible stack leave TeraWulf with a high debt load and fixed obligations out to 2030–2032. Rising borrowing costs or tighter credit conditions could complicate refinancing and future expansions. ^[43]
Execution on large‑scale build‑outs
- Projects like Lake Mariner’s HPC expansion and the Abernathy campus involve multi‑year construction timelines, grid interconnections, and high capex. The bond indenture includes a completion guarantee, meaning the company is on the hook if project costs exceed available funds. ^[44]
Customer concentration & Google dependence
- A significant portion of contracted revenue is tied to Fluidstack and other AI clients whose leases are backstopped by Google. While the credit support is a strength, it also concentrates risk in a small number of counterparties and one strategic partner. ^[45]
Bitcoin price exposure
- TeraWulf still generates most of its revenue from bitcoin mining, which remains highly sensitive to BTC prices, network difficulty, and regulatory shifts. A prolonged slump in crypto prices could pressure cash flows just as AI investments ramp. ^[46]
Accounting volatility
- Warrant and derivative liabilities tied to Google and other financings can swing reported earnings dramatically from quarter to quarter, making GAAP profit measures noisy and potentially confusing for new investors. ^[47]

What it all means for investors

With WULF now about 35% below its recent high but still massively above its 2024 lows, today’s 9% pullback looks more like the latest chapter in a much bigger story than a simple trend reversal. ^[48]

The bullish narrative:

Google‑enhanced AI hosting deals could lock in decade‑long, multi‑billion‑dollar revenue streams. ^[49]
TeraWulf has secured large amounts of growth capital and a pipeline targeting 250–500 MW of new HPC lease signings annually, giving it a credible path to scale into one of North America’s leading zero‑carbon AI infrastructure operators. ^[50]

The cautious view:

The company is still burning cash, deeply loss‑making on a GAAP basis, and highly leveraged. ^[51]
Valuation is demanding by conventional metrics, and much of the share price depends on flawless execution over several years and continued AI demand growth. ^[52]

For now, Wall Street remains in the “constructive but volatile” camp, with most analysts recommending Buy/Outperform but acknowledging that WULF is a high‑risk, high‑reward play on the intersection of bitcoin mining, cloud AI, and green energy. ^[53]

Bottom line

If you’re watching TeraWulf today, the 9% drop is less a verdict on the whole story and more a reminder of just how leveraged to sentiment and news flow this stock has become. Today’s coverage underscores the split: some models see deep value, others warn of over‑exuberance – and both sides can point to real numbers.

As always, anyone considering WULF should:

Look closely at debt terms, project timelines, and customer concentration.
Stress‑test their own assumptions on AI demand, financing conditions, and bitcoin prices.
Size any position appropriately given the stock’s extreme volatility (beta > 3). ^[54]

This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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