US Stock Market Today, Nov. 24, 2025: Futures Rise as Fed Cut Bets Kick Off Thanksgiving Week

U.S. stock futures are pointing higher on Monday, November 24, 2025, as Wall Street heads into a shortened Thanksgiving week with cautious optimism. Hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, a rebound from November’s AI-led sell-off, and a busy earnings calendar are setting the tone before the opening bell.

1. Futures Point to Positive Open for Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq

As of early Monday morning (around 3:39 a.m. ET), U.S. equity futures were firmly in the green: ^[1]

Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX): up about 0.99%
S&P 500 futures (SPX): up about 0.68%
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (DJIA): up about 0.36%

The move follows a volatile but ultimately positive finish on Friday, when strong earnings from names like Ross Stores (ROST) and Intuit (INTU) helped the major indices rebound even as AI and chip stocks remained under pressure. ^[2]

Despite Friday’s bounce, all three major benchmarks are still on track to close November in negative territory, largely because of a persistent shakeout in richly valued AI leaders. ^[3]

2. The Big Story: Fed Cut Hopes Dominate the Macro Narrative

The key macro driver this morning is the growing market conviction that the Fed could cut rates again in December.

Fed funds futures now imply roughly 60% odds of a 25 bp cut next month, according to multiple market-implied gauges. ^[4]
Some measures put the probability even higher, near 75%, after dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggested there may be room to lower borrowing costs as the labor market softens. ^[5]

At the same time, policymakers remain divided and official data are unusually patchy because a record-length U.S. government shutdown earlier this fall forced the cancellation of key releases like the October CPI report. ^[6]

That “data fog” is one reason markets are so sensitive to every Fed remark and every economic print this week.

3. Today’s Economic Calendar: Regional Data and Treasury Supply

While the high-impact reports (retail sales, PPI) arrive later in the week, Monday’s U.S. calendar is still busy under the surface:

Key U.S. releases and events today (all times ET): ^[7]

Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30 a.m.
- A broad gauge of growth momentum that can shift expectations about how “hot” or “cool” the economy really is.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30 a.m.
- Offers a read-through on factory activity and business sentiment in a key energy and export-heavy region.
Treasury auctions and bills:
- 3-month and 6-month bill auctions around 11:30 a.m.
- A 2‑year note auction in the afternoon (1:00 p.m.)
- These auctions matter because they test investors’ appetite for U.S. debt at a time when issuance has surged.

Later in the week, investors will zero in on October retail sales and producer price (PPI) data, which several outlets flag as the main macro catalysts for both the Fed and markets in this Thanksgiving-shortened stretch. ^[8]

4. Bonds, Dollar and Commodities: Quiet but Tight Financial Conditions

Treasuries. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is hovering around 4.05–4.06%, slightly below last week’s levels but still elevated by historical standards. ^[9]

Shorter-dated yields, such as the 2-year, are trading near 3.5%, reflecting expectations of future cuts but not an aggressive easing cycle. ^[10]

Dollar. The U.S. dollar index is holding near six‑month highs, even as it eases slightly today, underscoring that financial conditions remain relatively tight despite one prior rate cut. ^[11]

Gold and oil.

Gold is essentially flat but holding above $4,000 an ounce, with spot prices quoted near $4,060–$4,070 as Fed cut hopes offset dollar strength. ^[12]
Brent crude is trading around the low $60s per barrel (roughly $62), pressured by talk of progress on a potential Ukraine peace plan that could eventually free up more Russian supply. ^[13]
WTI crude futures were last seen around $57–$58 per barrel, according to premarket checks. ^[14]

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is holding below the $90,000 mark after a sharp run-up earlier this year, mirroring the “cooling but still elevated” tone seen across other speculative assets. ^[15]

5. Global Markets Overnight: Risk-On, Led by Asia and Europe

The U.S. futures move higher is part of a broader global rally:

Asia-Pacific:
- MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index (ex-Japan) gained about 1%. ^[16]
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped nearly 2%, while China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen indices posted smaller gains as traders bought beaten-down tech and consumer names. ^[17]
- Japanese markets were closed for a local holiday, keeping liquidity slightly thinner in the region. ^[18]
Europe:
- Europe’s STOXX 600 index is up around 0.5% in early trading, catching up with Friday’s late surge on Wall Street. ^[19]
- Defence stocks are under pressure amid signs of progress in U.S.–Ukraine peace discussions, while tech, pharma, and banks lead the advance. ^[20]

The common thread globally is the same: markets are leaning into the idea of a December Fed rate cut while keeping one eye on high valuations in AI and growth stocks. ^[21]

6. Earnings to Watch Today (Before and After the Bell)

Today’s U.S. earnings calendar is heavy on tech, AI infrastructure, fintech, and industrials, with a cluster of China-linked and growth names in focus. ^[22]

Before the bell

Pre‑market releases are dominated by Chinese and emerging‑markets financials and tech:

Lotus Technology (LOT) – EV and smart‑vehicle play
Qudian (QD) – Chinese consumer finance
WeRide (WRD) – autonomous driving technology
LexinFintech (LX) – online consumer lending
BioLineRx (BLRX) – biotech, expected to post another quarterly loss
Corporacion America Airports (CAAP) – Latin American and European airport operator

These reports will offer a window into Chinese consumer health, global travel trends, and risk appetite for smaller-cap growth names.

After the close

After the bell, attention shifts squarely to U.S. tech, AI infrastructure and industrials: ^[23]

Zoom Communications (ZM) – a key barometer for enterprise software and hybrid‑work demand.
Keysight Technologies (KEYS) and Agilent Technologies (A) – crucial test, measurement and life-sciences equipment suppliers, often seen as “picks-and-shovels” plays for electronics, semis and biotech.
Semtech (SMTC) and Symbotic (SYM) – signal-processing and warehouse automation names tied to AI, data centers and logistics.
Fluence Energy (FLNC) – grid‑scale energy storage, watched as a clean‑energy and infrastructure proxy.
Blue Bird (BLBD) – electric and conventional school buses, giving insight into public-sector and EV fleet spending.
Woodward (WWD) – aerospace and industrial controls, important for aerospace cycle watchers.
Tuya (TUYA) and Lotus, LexinFintech, Qudian, WeRide (for ADRs trading later) – additional signals on Chinese tech demand and regulatory overhangs.
StoneX Group (SNEX), FS Credit Opportunities (FSCO), Alico (ALCO), Central Garden & Pet (CENT/CENTA) – niche plays that can nevertheless move sharply on thin pre-holiday liquidity.

With futures leaning higher, beats from Zoom, Keysight, Agilent or the AI-adjacent names could reinforce the rebound narrative. Misses or cautious guidance, on the other hand, would quickly reignite worries about whether AI and software valuations still have room to run.

7. Stock Stories Carrying Over from Last Week

A few Friday winners and themes are likely to remain in focus today: ^[24]

Ross Stores (ROST) surged more than 8% after a strong earnings beat and upbeat outlook, underscoring that value-focused U.S. consumers are still spending, even as inflation and tariffs keep prices elevated.
Intuit (INTU) climbed around 4% on earnings strength and ongoing AI integration into its tax and small‑business platforms.
UGI (UGI) jumped over 7% on better-than-expected results and guidance, highlighting demand resilience in energy and utilities.
Copart (CPRT) slipped after missing revenue forecasts, a reminder that not all cyclical stories are participating in the rebound.

At the index level, several research and news outlets note that AI leaders like Nvidia, Oracle, Alphabet and others remain under pressure, with investors increasingly distinguishing between sustainable earnings power and pure “AI momentum” trades. ^[25]

8. AI Hangover vs. Rate-Cut Euphoria: The Tug-of-War to Watch

The core tension heading into today’s open is clear:

On one side, rate‑cut optimism is lifting stocks globally. Goldman Sachs and other strategists now openly pencil in a December cut, with more easing in early 2026 if inflation cooperates. ^[26]
On the other, concerns about an AI bubble and stretched mega‑cap tech valuations are acting as an ongoing brake, especially after several sharp drawdowns in November. ^[27]

For day traders and short‑term investors, that means:

High‑beta AI and software names could see outsized intraday swings as sentiment oscillates between “the worst is over” and “this is just a bear‑market bounce.”
Quality tech, industrials, and healthcare leaders with solid cash flows may continue to attract rotation as investors look for growth without nosebleed multiples. ^[28]

9. Short Week Logistics: Holiday Hours and Liquidity

This is not a normal week for trading:

Thanksgiving Day (Thursday, Nov. 27): U.S. stock markets are closed. ^[29]
Friday, Nov. 28: The NYSE and Nasdaq will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET, and volumes are typically very thin. ^[30]

That implies:

Today and tomorrow are the key days for institutions to reposition on macro data, Fed expectations and earnings.
Intraday moves may be exaggerated by lower liquidity, particularly in smaller caps and ADRs listed above. Stops and position sizing matter more than usual for active traders.

10. What Traders Should Watch Into the Open

Here’s a distilled checklist for the U.S. cash open today:

Index futures:
- Do Nasdaq futures hold close to +1% or fade back toward flat? That will say a lot about whether the AI and growth rebound has legs. ^[31]
Rates and yields:
- Watch the 10-year yield around 4.05–4.10% during and after the 2‑year auction. A sharp rise could undercut today’s bullish tone, while a stable or lower yield would support further upside in growth stocks. ^[32]
Key earnings reactions:
- Premarket: Any outsized moves in Lotus Tech (LOT), WeRide (WRD), LexinFintech (LX), Qudian (QD) or CAAP could spill over into broader China and EM sentiment. ^[33]
- After hours: The street will scrutinize Zoom (ZM), Keysight (KEYS), Agilent (A), Semtech (SMTC) and Symbotic (SYM) for clues on enterprise IT budgets, AI infrastructure spending and capex plans. ^[34]
Global risk mood:
- Continued strength in European stocks and Asia tech benchmarks would reinforce today’s positive setup. Any abrupt reversal there, especially in rate-sensitive or AI-linked sectors, could quickly bleed into U.S. trading. ^[35]
Commodities and the dollar:
- Gold above $4,000 and oil in the low $60s tell you that markets still expect slower growth but not full-blown recession. A sharp risk‑off move would likely show up first in these markets and the dollar before hitting equities. ^[36]

11. Bottom Line

Heading into the U.S. open on Monday, November 24, 2025, the backdrop is:

Constructive but fragile: Futures are higher, the Fed is back in easing mode (at least in market expectations), and global equities are broadly firmer. ^[37]
Data-light but event-heavy: Today’s regional indicators and Treasury auctions set the stage for more consequential releases later this week. ^[38]
Earnings-driven in tech and AI: With Zoom, Keysight, Agilent, Semtech, Symbotic and a host of China‑linked names reporting, micro-level surprises could easily overshadow macro noise by the closing bell. ^[39]

For investors, the message is simple: this is a week to stay nimble, respect the calendar, and separate genuine earnings power from speculative hype—especially in AI and high‑growth tech.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making trading or investment decisions.

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