U.S. stocks kicked off the Thanksgiving week with a broad rally on Monday, November 24, 2025, powered by mega-cap tech and fresh optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December. A thaw in U.S.–China relations and bullish 2026 targets for the S&P 500 added fuel to the rebound after a bruising stretch for AI-heavy names. 1
Wall Street Snapshot: Indexes Rebound After a Tough November
At the closing bell on Monday:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 147.39 points (+0.32%) to 46,394.72
- S&P 500 gained 64.62 points (+0.97%) to 6,667.61
- Nasdaq Composite jumped 393.85 points (+1.73%) to 22,657.20 1
The gains marked a welcome rebound after several volatile weeks in which:
- The S&P 500 fell roughly 2% last week,
- The Nasdaq dropped about 2.7%, and
- The Dow lost close to 2%,
as investors questioned whether the AI boom was turning into a bubble and worried about overstretched valuations in AI infrastructure and hyperscaler stocks. 2
In other words, Monday was a classic “risk-on” session: big tech ripped higher, yields eased, and some of the most beaten-down growth names snapped back sharply.
Tech and AI Megacaps Lead the Charge
Technology and AI-linked stocks were the clear leaders on Monday, reversing part of November’s AI-driven slide:
- Alphabet (Google) extended last week’s powerful advance after unveiling its new Gemini 3 AI model, adding another ~6% on Monday following more than 8% gains last week. 3
- Tesla surged around 7% after CEO Elon Musk said the company ultimately expects to build more AI chips than all other AI chipmakers combined, reinforcing Tesla’s positioning as both an EV and AI hardware play. 3
- Chipmakers Broadcom and Micron Technology rallied roughly 10% and 7–8%, respectively, as investors rotated back into semiconductor and AI infrastructure names after last week’s heavy selling. 3
- Nvidia, which dropped about 6% over the prior week despite strong earnings, clawed back gains with a move of roughly 1–2% on the day. 3
- Palantir and several other AI-adjacent software names joined the rally, with some up more than 5%. 4
The powerful move in mega-cap growth helped drive the Nasdaq’s nearly 1.8% advance, far outpacing the Dow’s more modest rise and underscoring just how concentrated the leadership remains in tech, AI, and communication services. 1
Rate-Cut Optimism: The Fed Back in the Spotlight
A key driver of Monday’s rally was the market’s growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will deliver another 25 basis-point rate cut in December:
- New York Fed President John Williams said late last week he could support an additional “near-term” cut, characterizing policy as still “modestly restrictive” and suggesting room to move closer to neutral. 5
- Following his comments, the CME FedWatch tool now implies roughly an 80% probability of a December cut, up from about 40–70% prior to his remarks, according to various market estimates. 3
Bond markets echoed that optimism:
- The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to around 4.05%, extending the move lower that began late last week. 1
Lower yields support higher equity valuations, particularly for long-duration assets such as tech and growth stocks — exactly the cohort that led Monday’s surge.
U.S.–China Thaw and Street-High S&P 500 Targets
Sentiment was further buoyed by geopolitics and fresh Wall Street forecasts:
- President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call on Monday that Trump described as “extremely strong,” framing U.S.–China relations as stable and improving. 4
- Chinese state media reported that relations have “generally remained stable and improved” following a recent meeting in Busan, where the U.S. agreed to cut certain tariffs on Chinese goods and China pledged more purchases of U.S. soybeans and eased restrictions on rare earth exports. 4
On top of that, big banks rolled out eye-catching 2026 S&P 500 targets:
- Deutsche Bank now sees the S&P 500 at 8,000 by the end of 2026, citing resilient earnings and ongoing AI-driven productivity gains. 6
- HSBC followed with its own bullish call, setting a 7,500 target for 2026. 4
Those projections, combined with the improving U.S.–China narrative, helped re‑ignite the “AI super‑cycle plus soft‑landing” story that dominated markets earlier in the year.
Sector Winners and Losers
Health Insurers Pop on Obamacare Subsidy Headlines
Healthcare stocks — especially insurers — joined in the rally after Politico reported that the White House is preparing a new Affordable Care Act (ACA) framework, including:
- A two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies set to expire at year‑end,
- New income caps (around 700% of the federal poverty line) for eligibility, and
- Minimum premium payments and tweaks to cost-sharing reductions. 2
In response:
- Oscar Health jumped roughly 20–22%,
- Centene gained about 5–8%, and
- Molina Healthcare climbed around 3–4%,
as investors priced in the potential for more stable enrollment and subsidy flows. 3
Novo Nordisk Slumps on Alzheimer’s Trial
Not every healthcare name participated:
- U.S.-listed shares of Novo Nordisk fell around 6–7% after the company said a Phase 3 trial of semaglutide — the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy — failed to show a statistically significant slowing of Alzheimer’s disease progression versus placebo. 2
The result disappointed investors who had hoped the blockbuster weight‑loss drug could open a new multibillion‑dollar indication in neurodegeneration.
Cross-Asset Moves: Bitcoin, Oil, Gold, and the Dollar
Beyond equities, Monday’s price action reinforced the “risk-on, rates‑down” theme:
- Bitcoin bounced to around $88,600, recovering from a weekend slide below $83,500 but still in what has been its worst month since 2022. 3
- WTI crude traded in the high‑$50s per barrel, while Brent hovered in the low $60s, pressured by reports of progress toward a U.S.–backed peace framework in Ukraine, which could eventually unlock more Russian supply. 1
- Gold eased slightly after a strong run, holding above the $4,000/oz mark in futures trading, as lower yields and lingering macro uncertainty kept demand firm. 3
- The U.S. dollar index was little changed near 100–100.2, with the euro around $1.15 and the yen weaker near ¥157 per dollar. 1
Thanksgiving Week Setup: What’s Next for Markets?
Monday’s rally comes in a holiday‑shortened week, with:
- U.S. stock and bond markets closed Thursday for Thanksgiving,
- An early close (1 p.m. ET) on Friday, and
- A relatively light but important economic data slate. 3
Key catalysts in focus for the rest of the week include:
- Retail and consumer data (including retail sales and producer prices) that will help investors gauge the strength of the U.S. consumer heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday. 1
- Regional Fed surveys and manufacturing readings, which could confirm or challenge the narrative that growth is slowing while inflation retreats. 2
- Corporate earnings stragglers, especially in tech and software, as Q4 reporting season winds down with a final cluster of results. 2
Given how concentrated leadership has become in AI and big tech, any surprise in data or corporate commentary that affects rate expectations or AI spending plans could quickly feed through to index-level volatility.
How Investors Might Interpret Today’s Move
For investors, Monday’s action sends a few clear signals:
- AI and megacap tech are still in the driver’s seat
The strongest gains came from Alphabet, Tesla, AI-heavy chipmakers, and software names. As long as rate expectations drift lower and AI spending remains robust, these stocks are likely to continue dictating the direction of the major indexes. 3 - Rate expectations remain the core macro lever
Markets are pricing a high probability of another December Fed rate cut, with lower yields already supporting valuations. Any surprise in inflation, growth, or Fed communication could shift this narrative quickly. 3 - Policy and geopolitics still matter
The Trump–Xi call, talk of tariff relief, and progress on Ukraine peace efforts all fed into today’s risk-on tone, influencing everything from equities to oil and the dollar. 4 - Health policy headlines can move entire subsectors
Obamacare subsidy discussions drove sharp moves in health insurers, a reminder that regulatory risk and opportunity remain central for managed-care stocks. 3 - The November drawdown isn’t forgotten
Despite Monday’s relief rally, major indexes are still on track for their worst month since March, thanks largely to the late‑month AI sell‑off. The question for the rest of the year is whether today’s bounce marks the start of a sustained recovery or just a holiday‑week short squeeze. 7
Bottom Line
The U.S. stock market today (November 24, 2025) delivered a classic relief rally:
- Indexes up, yields down, tech ripping higher,
- Fed cut hopes and bullish 2026 targets back in the spotlight,
- A warmer U.S.–China tone easing some geopolitical tension, and
- Healthcare and AI names reacting sharply to policy and product headlines.
With trading hours shortened later in the week and key macro data still to come, investors should expect thinner liquidity and potentially outsized moves if any headline significantly shifts the rate or growth narrative into month‑end.
