Anglo American (AAL) Surges Above 200‑Day Average as BHP Exits and Teck Merger Advances

London, 26 November 2025 – Anglo American plc (LON: AAL) is back in the spotlight today as its shares climb, its chart flashes a bullish technical signal, and the dust begins to settle on BHP’s latest failed tilt at the miner ahead of a transformational merger with Canada’s Teck Resources.

By late morning in London, Anglo American was trading about 1.4% higher, helping lift the FTSE 100 by 0.2% as industrial miners tracked firmer copper prices. ^[1] FT data shows the stock changing hands around 2,800p, up roughly 21% over the last 12 months and still about 6% below its 52‑week high of 3,008p set in October. ^[2]

Below is a full rundown of what matters for Anglo American on 26 November 2025 – from today’s market move and technicals, to BHP’s retreat, the Anglo‑Teck merger, regulatory hurdles and the underlying numbers.

Key takeaways for 26 November 2025

Share price up ~1–1.5%: Anglo is outperforming the wider FTSE 100 today as miners and banks lead the market higher ahead of the UK budget. ^[3]
Technical breakout: The share price has moved decisively above its 200‑day moving average around 2,414p, a level many traders watch as a long‑term trend signal. ^[4]
BHP walks away (again): BHP has formally ended its latest attempt to combine with Anglo under UK takeover rules, just weeks before a shareholder vote on Anglo’s planned merger with Teck Resources. ^[5]
Anglo‑Teck “copper champion” still on track: The so‑called merger of equals would create a top‑five global copper producer and includes a proposed US$4.5bn special dividend for Anglo shareholders; proxy adviser Glass Lewis has recommended Teck investors back the deal. ^[6]
EU pauses review of nickel sale: EU antitrust regulators have temporarily stopped the clock on MMG’s planned purchase of Anglo’s Brazilian nickel business, adding a new regulatory wrinkle to the company’s portfolio simplification plans. ^[7]
Fundamentals still in repair mode: Anglo reported a US$1.9bn half‑year loss and slashed its interim dividend to US$0.07 per share in July, even as copper and iron ore operations delivered strong margins. ^[8]

Anglo American share price today: miners lead the FTSE 100

In London trade this morning, industrial miners gained about 1% as copper prices pushed higher. Anglo American rose 1.4%, alongside rival Antofagasta, as investors rotated back into economically sensitive materials stocks. ^[9]

On fundamental metrics, FT data puts Anglo American’s market capitalisation at around £32bn, with the shares recently quoted around 2,818p, up 40p on the day at 11:21 GMT. Over the past year the stock is up just over 21%, having traded between 1,641.51p (April low) and 3,008p (October high). ^[10]

That backdrop matters because it frames both:

how much “room” there is for any bid premium, and
how the market is pricing the upcoming transformational merger with Teck.

Technical breakout: AAL pushes above its 200‑day moving average

Today’s price action comes hot on the heels of a notable technical milestone.

MarketBeat flagged that on Tuesday Anglo’s share price crossed above its 200‑day moving average of roughly 2,413.61p, trading as high as 2,810p with volume over 3.3m shares. ^[11] For chart‑driven traders, that kind of move is often read as a bullish confirmation that a medium‑term uptrend is in place.

MarketBeat also summarises the current analyst stance:

Broker consensus: 2 “Buy” ratings and 3 “Hold” ratings, for an overall Hold consensus.
Average target price: about 2,532p, with individual 12‑month targets ranging from 1,900p (RBC) to 3,100p (Berenberg). ^[12]

In addition, the site highlights recent insider buying – including purchases by chair Stuart Chambers and director Nonkululeko Nyembezi – with insiders collectively holding around 0.4% of the stock. ^[13] Insider purchases don’t guarantee anything, but they often reassure some investors that the board sees value at current levels.

BHP’s “gatecrash” fails – again

The bigger strategic story around Anglo today is what did not happen.

BHP abandons its latest approach

On 24 November, BHP issued a formal statement under the UK Takeover Code confirming that, after preliminary talks with Anglo’s board, it is no longer considering a combination of the two companies. ^[14]

In that statement, BHP reiterated that a tie‑up with Anglo would have had “strong strategic merits” but said it remained confident in the “highly compelling potential” of its own organic growth pipeline. ^[15] The announcement falls under Rule 2.8 of the UK code, which normally bars BHP from making another approach for six months, unless certain exceptions are triggered (such as a rival bidder emerging or Anglo’s board agreeing to set aside the statement). ^[16]

Reporting from Bloomberg, relayed via Moneyweb, suggests BHP made a quiet, last‑minute approach over the weekend, hoping to win over Anglo’s board before news leaked. Once the talks were rebuffed and the approach became public, BHP quickly walked away, mindful of investor concerns about overpaying and the reputational risk of another drawn‑out failure. ^[17]

A Reuters Breakingviews column describes the episode as a second mis‑step in less than two years for CEO Mike Henry, after an earlier, unsuccessful bid in 2024 – and notes that he is expected to step down in 2026, making this a disappointing M&A swansong. ^[18]

“Headline‑grabbing non‑starter”

An editorial published this morning in South Africa’s BusinessDay goes further, arguing that BHP’s late “gatecrash” attempt was more theatre than genuine takeover bid, given the deal arithmetic, regulatory complexity and Anglo’s commitment to its Teck merger. ^[19] The paper argues that a short, clearly defined exclusivity period between Anglo and Teck could help protect the upcoming vote from further distractions while still allowing the board to consider any truly superior offers.

The message for shareholders: BHP’s exit removes a near‑term wild card, but the door isn’t locked forever if circumstances change after the Teck vote.

Inside the Anglo‑Teck deal: building a copper giant

With BHP out of the way (for now), attention shifts squarely back to the proposed merger of equals between Anglo American and Teck Resources.

Deal structure and special dividend

According to the companies’ joint announcements and shareholder materials: ^[20]

Anglo and Teck plan to combine into a new group called Anglo Teck, headquartered in Canada.
Each Teck class A common share and class B subordinate voting share will be exchanged for 1.3301 Anglo American shares.
After completion, Anglo and Teck shareholders are expected to own roughly 62.4% and 37.6% of the new group respectively.
Subject to conditions, the Anglo board intends to pay a US$4.5bn special dividend (about US$4.19 per share) to Anglo shareholders before the merger completes.
The deal is promoted as the second‑largest transaction in copper mining history, with the combined market capitalisation widely cited around US$50–55bn at announcement. ^[21]

The combination would create a top‑five global copper producer with significant operations in Chile and Peru, plus sizeable iron ore and zinc businesses and growth in crop nutrients.

Synergies and growth claims

Investor materials and third‑party analysis outline ambitious synergy targets: ^[22]

Around US$800m in recurring annual pre‑tax cost synergies by the end of year four after completion, largely from overlapping corporate, marketing and procurement functions.
An additional roughly US$1.4bn per year of underlying EBITDA from integrating adjacent Chilean operations (Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca) from 2030 onwards, potentially adding ~175,000 tonnes per year of copper output.

Proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis has recommended that Teck shareholders vote in favour, calling the terms reasonable and highlighting the benefits of owning a larger, more diversified critical‑minerals group with enhanced copper exposure. ^[23]

Timetable: 9 December vote looms

Anglo’s shareholder circular, published on 10 November, sets out a general meeting on 9 December 2025 to approve resolutions necessary to implement the merger. ^[24] Teck will hold its own special meeting on or around the same date. Regulatory approvals are also required in multiple jurisdictions.

The recent BHP episode has sharpened debate around whether the boards should agree a limited exclusivity period leading up to the vote – something the BusinessDay editorial supports as a way to reduce opportunistic disruptions while preserving the ability to entertain a truly superior bid. ^[25]

EU pauses review of Anglo’s nickel sale to MMG

Away from copper, Anglo is still working hard to simplify its portfolio – and ran into a fresh regulatory bump this week.

The European Commission has paused its antitrust review of Hong Kong‑listed MMG’s proposed acquisition of Anglo’s Brazilian nickel business. According to an update on the Commission’s website, regulators “stopped the clock” on 24 November because MMG has not yet provided certain requested information; the timetable will restart only once the data is submitted. ^[26]

Earlier this month, EU officials warned that the deal – which comes amid heightened concern over critical mineral supply and the role of Chinese‑controlled groups – could enable MMG to redirect ferronickel away from Europe, potentially hurting EU steel producers. ^[27] MMG’s largest shareholder is state‑owned China Minmetals.

For Anglo, the Brazilian nickel sale is part of a broader plan to exit non‑core commodities and focus on copper, premium iron ore and crop nutrients. The pause doesn’t necessarily derail the transaction, but it inserts additional timing and execution risk into the group’s simplification agenda.

Under the bonnet: 2025 interim results and production outlook

Today’s news sits on top of a mixed fundamental picture.

Earnings and dividend

In its half‑year 2025 results (to 30 June), Anglo American reported: ^[28]

Revenue: US$8.95bn
Underlying EBITDA: US$2.96–3.0bn, with an EBITDA margin of 32%
Loss attributable to shareholders: about US$1.9bn, roughly triple the prior‑year first‑half loss
Loss per share:US$1.58
Interim dividend:US$0.07 per share, down sharply from US$0.42 a year earlier

The group cited lower contributions from businesses it is exiting – notably platinum group metals, steelmaking coal and diamonds (De Beers) – as key reasons for the slump and dividend cut. ^[29]

At the same time, the company emphasised strong operational and cost performance in its core copper and premium iron ore units, where it delivered EBITDA margins of 48% and 44% respectively, and said it remained on track to deliver US$1.8bn of cost savings. ^[30]

Portfolio simplification

Anglo has been reshaping itself aggressively:

It demerged its platinum business into separately listed Valterra Platinum in May, which management says unlocked value and sharpened strategic focus. ^[31]
It has agreed sales of its steelmaking coal and nickel assets, while preparing a separation of De Beers. Once completed, Anglo will be heavily concentrated in copper, premium iron ore and crop nutrients. ^[32]

Third‑party analysis from Morningstar and others has broadly welcomed the simplification, but also notes that shedding cash‑generative legacy assets squeezes near‑term earnings and dividends, leaving the stock more sensitive to copper prices and execution risk on the Woodsmith fertiliser project. ^[33]

Production guidance

In its Q2 and Q3 production updates, Anglo reaffirmed 2025 guidance that reflects this new, more focused portfolio: ^[34]

Copper: 690–750kt for 2025, split roughly 380–410kt in Chile and 310–340kt in Peru.
Iron ore: 58–62Mt (slightly upgraded from earlier guidance), with stable unit costs around US$36/tonne.
Exiting divisions: Diamonds (De Beers) 20–23M carats; steelmaking coal 10–12Mt, both treated as non‑core.

Anglo’s long‑term pitch is that this production mix is better aligned with the energy transition and can deliver higher‑quality, less volatile cash flows once restructuring is complete.

Copper macro tailwind: UBS turns more bullish

The macro backdrop is also moving in Anglo’s favour.

UBS this week raised its copper price forecasts for 2026, citing persistent mine disruptions and robust demand from electrification and clean‑energy infrastructure. The bank now sees prices hitting US$11,500 per tonne by March 2026, rising to US$13,000 by December 2026, and has sharply widened its projected market deficit to 230,000 tonnes in 2025 and 407,000 tonnes in 2026. ^[35]

UBS expects global copper demand to grow around 2.8% annually through 2026, driven by electric vehicles, renewables, power‑grid upgrades and data centres, while supply growth remains constrained by grade declines, operational hiccups and political risks in key producing countries. ^[36]

For a company that is deliberately pivoting toward large‑scale copper and premium iron ore, that outlook is helpful – though it also raises the stakes for delivering on expansion projects and merger synergies.

What it all means for investors watching AAL today

For investors and market watchers looking at Anglo American on 26 November 2025, several threads come together:

Short‑term sentiment is improving. The stock is outperforming the FTSE 100 today, buoyed by firmer copper prices and a clear break above its 200‑day moving average – a combination that tends to attract momentum and technical traders. ^[37]
The BHP overhang has eased – for now. With BHP bound by Rule 2.8 and publicly focusing on organic growth, there is less near‑term noise around a competing mega‑bid. But UK takeover rules leave room for a comeback if certain conditions arise, and analysts have not ruled out the possibility of renewed interest after the Teck deal either completes or falters. ^[38]
The Anglo‑Teck vote is the next major catalyst. The 9 December shareholder meetings – and any exclusivity arrangements leading up to them – will be critical in determining whether Anglo becomes part of a copper super‑major or remains independent (for a while longer) and potentially in play again. ^[39]
Execution and regulation still matter. The EU’s pause on the nickel sale to MMG is a reminder that portfolio simplification can be messy, especially when critical minerals and Chinese ownership are involved. Further regulatory scrutiny – both on that deal and on Anglo‑Teck itself – is a live risk. ^[40]
Fundamentals are a work in progress. Anglo is still emerging from a period of heavy restructuring, big impairments and dividend cuts. Investors who like the strategic direction towards copper and iron ore must also be comfortable with near‑term earnings volatility and the integration risk that comes with a multi‑billion‑dollar merger. ^[41]

As always, this overview is for information only and not investment advice. Anyone considering Anglo American – or any other mining stock – should weigh their own risk tolerance, time horizon and need for diversification, and consult a qualified adviser if they need personalised guidance.