US Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Extend Rally on Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Ahead of Thanksgiving

New York – Wednesday, November 26, 2025 (around one hour after the open)

U.S. stocks opened higher on Wednesday and extended gains in the first hour of trading, as Wall Street rides a three‑day rally powered by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. A fresh batch of economic data, a cluster of high‑profile earnings, and a holiday‑thinned trading week are shaping the action in the US stock market today.

Markets at a Glance: Early Trade on November 26, 2025

Shortly after the opening bell, all three major U.S. stock indexes moved higher.

At the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 84 points (≈0.2%) to 47,196, the S&P 500 climbed roughly 0.4% to 6,793, and the Nasdaq Composite gained around 0.6% to 23,163, according to early figures. ^[1]
In the first hour of trading, the S&P 500 was up around 0.5%, the Dow higher by roughly 140 points (≈0.4%), and the Nasdaq ahead by about 0.6%, indicating that buyers remained in control into early morning. ^[2]

That builds on a strong session Tuesday, when:

The Dow surged 1.4% (664 points) to 47,112.45
The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 6,765.88
The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% to 23,025.59, led by big technology and AI‑linked names. ^[3]

It’s now a three‑day winning streak for U.S. equities, a sharp reversal from last week’s AI‑driven selloff.

Futures trading and ETF moves earlier this morning pointed in the same direction: modest but broad‑based gains, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures up around 0.2–0.3%, and the big index ETFs SPY and QQQ also higher before the bell. ^[4]

Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Are Driving the Mood

The dominant narrative in the US stock market today is renewed conviction that the Fed will cut rates in December.

Fed funds futures now imply roughly an 80–85% probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, up sharply from roughly even odds just a week ago, according to CME FedWatch and multiple market briefings. ^[5]

The backdrop:

Investors have been starved of timely economic data after a 43‑day government shutdown delayed several key reports.
As the data flow resumes, traders are interpreting the latest figures as “soft but not scary”—weak enough to justify easier policy, but not so weak as to scream recession.

This combination—slowing inflation, still‑solid activity, and a more dovish Fed tone—is fueling a risk‑on move in equities, especially in long‑duration assets like tech and growth stocks.

Economic Data Today: Jobless Claims & Durable Goods Support a Soft‑Landing Story

1. Initial Jobless Claims

The first major datapoint of the morning came at 8:30 a.m. ET:

Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 216,000 for the week ending November 22.
That’s the third consecutive weekly decline and puts claims at their lowest level in about nine months, signaling that the labor market remains resilient despite higher borrowing costs. ^[6]

For the Fed, a still‑firm jobs backdrop reduces the urgency of aggressive cuts, but the gradual easing from earlier peaks is consistent with a controlled slowdown rather than a sudden downturn.

2. Durable Goods & Core Capital Goods

Also at 8:30 a.m. ET, delayed data for September durable goods orders, pushed back by the shutdown, finally landed:

Durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, matching expectations after an upwardly revised 3.0% gain in August. ^[7]
Excluding transportation, orders climbed 0.6%, exceeding forecasts. ^[8]
More importantly for growth, core capital goods orders (non‑defense, ex‑aircraft), a proxy for business investment, jumped 0.9%, and shipments also rose 0.9%, pointing to strong capex momentum. ^[9]

Economists note that this business‑investment strength supports estimates that Q3 GDP growth could run near 4% annualized, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. ^[10]

3. Missing Data: GDP and PCE Still Delayed

Crucially, markets are still missing key inflation and growth pieces:

The advance Q3 GDP estimate was canceled and the second estimate, previously scheduled for today, has been postponed because of the shutdown. ^[11]
The Personal Income and Outlays report for October, which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE), was also rescheduled from its original November 26 release slot. ^[12]

That makes the available data—jobless claims, durable goods, earlier producer‑price figures, and private inflation nowcasts—even more influential in shaping December rate‑cut expectations. ^[13]

Mega‑Cap Tech & AI: Alphabet and Apple Shine, Chips Stay Volatile

Tech remains the market’s gravitational center, with mega‑cap names and AI leaders driving much of this week’s rebound.

Alphabet nears a $4 trillion milestone

On Tuesday, Alphabet continued a remarkable run, pushing toward a $4 trillion market capitalization, up roughly 70% year‑to‑date on the back of AI momentum in Google Cloud and the company’s in‑house TPU chips. ^[14]
Articles overnight noted that Alphabet’s potential to sell AI chips to third parties is scrambling the AI trade and strengthening its role as both a software and hardware winner in the AI boom. ^[15]

Apple and the broader AI trade

Apple also closed at a record high on Tuesday, helping lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as investors rotated back into big, cash‑rich technology names perceived to benefit if rates fall next month. ^[16]

Nvidia and AMD under pressure

The chip space is a different story:

Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have both come under pressure this month following reports that Meta Platforms is evaluating Google’s AI chips, raising questions about the durability of Nvidia’s dominance and the economics of big AI hardware deals. ^[17]
On Tuesday, AMD fell about 4% and Nvidia nearly 3%, making AMD the biggest decliner in the S&P 500. ^[18]
One analysis notes that AMD shares are down almost 23% in November, on track for their worst month since 2022, as investors digest intense competition and lofty valuations after an AI‑driven surge earlier in the year. ^[19]

Still, early Wednesday trade saw a modest bounce in some chip names, with AMD and Broadcom opening higher, reflecting bargain hunting and renewed optimism on AI demand even amid volatile headlines. ^[20]

Earnings Movers: Dell, Autodesk, Urban Outfitters, HP, Uber & Zscaler

Today’s US stock market action is also shaped by a busy earnings tape, especially in tech and consumer names.

Dell Technologies (DELL)

Dell shares are up roughly 5% after the company posted a mixed quarter but boosted its full‑year revenue outlookto as much as $112.2 billion, citing strong demand for AI‑optimized servers. ^[21]
The market is reading Dell’s commentary as a sign that enterprise AI infrastructure spending remains robust, even as some AI software and chip names wobble.

Autodesk (ADSK)

Autodesk is another big winner, with shares up around 7% after fiscal Q3 results:
- Revenue rose 18% to $1.85 billion
- Adjusted EPS came in at $2.67, well ahead of consensus. ^[22]
The company also raised its full‑year revenue and profit guidance, and analysts flagged the quarter as “clean,” boosting confidence in its longer‑term subscription and construction‑software growth story. ^[23]

Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Urban Outfitters is one of the standout consumer names today.
- Shares jumped around 15–19% in early trade after the retailer delivered record Q3 results, with revenue up roughly 12% to about $1.53 billion and EPS easily topping estimates. ^[24]
Management reported “robust” November sales and strong early holiday demand across its Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, and Free People brands, offering a more upbeat read on discretionary spending than some recent macro data suggested. ^[25]

HP Inc. (HPQ)

HP is moving in the opposite direction. The stock is down roughly 5–6% after:
- Posting better‑than‑expected quarterly earnings, but
- Issuing soft guidance and announcing plans to cut 4,000–6,000 jobs as part of a $1 billion cost‑cutting and AI‑driven restructuring program over the next three years. ^[26]

Investors appear torn between the potential for margin improvement and the signal that PC demand and hardware margins remain under pressure.

Uber Technologies (UBER) & WeRide (WRD)

Uber is modestly higher (around 0.5–0.7% in early trading) after it and WeRide announced the launch of Level 4 fully driverless robotaxi commercial operations in Abu Dhabi—a notable step in the company’s autonomous‑ride ambitions. ^[27]

Zscaler (ZS)

Zscaler slid roughly 7% despite topping earnings expectations and raising its fiscal 2026 guidance, underscoring how high‑growth cloud security names are still being punished for any hint of deceleration or rich valuations. ^[28]

Global Markets, Commodities & Crypto

The risk‑on tone isn’t confined to Wall Street.

Asian stock markets closed higher, with benchmarks in India, Hong Kong, Australia, China, Japan, and South Korea all in the green, tracking Tuesday’s U.S. rally and riding the same Fed‑cut narrative. ^[29]
European indexes were also mostly higher in early trade, extending the global rebound. ^[30]

On the macro side:

Gold is trading around $4,160–4,180 per ounce, up roughly 0.8–1%, as softer U.S. data and higher odds of a December cut boost the appeal of non‑yielding safe‑haven assets. ^[31]
WTI crude oil is hovering near $58 per barrel, slightly lower on the day, reflecting lingering worries about global demand even as growth data improve at the margin. ^[32]
Bitcoin remains elevated around the mid‑$86,000s to upper‑$86,000s, off overnight highs but still near recent peaks, as crypto continues to trade like a high‑beta risk asset in this rate‑cut‑driven environment. ^[33]

Thanksgiving Week Liquidity and What to Watch Next

Trading conditions this week are unusual:

U.S. stock and bond markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and shut early on Friday (equities at 1 p.m. ET, bonds at 2 p.m. ET). ^[34]
That typically means thinner liquidity, so even small order flows and headlines can produce outsized intraday swings, especially in high‑beta sectors like tech and small caps.

For the rest of today, investors are watching:

Any intraday Fed commentary or leaks that might shift December rate expectations. ^[35]
Further earnings commentary from retailers and enterprise‑software names, which will help clarify how much holiday spending and corporate tech budgets are being affected by higher borrowing costs. ^[36]
Additional data and revisions around manufacturing and housing (Chicago PMI, pending home sales, regional Fed surveys), which flesh out the soft‑landing versus slowdown debate. ^[37]

Big Picture: A Fragile but Improving Risk‑On Sentiment

Taken together, the US stock market today is telling a cautiously optimistic story:

Growth: Business investment appears robust, durable‑goods orders are holding up, and GDP tracking models still point to solid Q3 growth. ^[38]
Labor: Jobless claims are low and trending down, signaling a labor market that is cooling gradually, not collapsing. ^[39]
Inflation & Policy: Data delays make the outlook noisy, but the available numbers plus Fed commentary have convinced markets that a December rate cut is back “on the table” with high odds. ^[40]
Equities: Mega‑cap tech leaders like Alphabet and Apple have reclaimed record territory, even as AI chip names swing wildly on competition headlines. ^[41]

For traders and investors, that mix argues for continued volatility but also explains why, at least for now, “buy the dip” has returned as the dominant instinct heading into the Thanksgiving break.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.