Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock Outlook: Bitcoin Proxy Faces MSCI Index Risk Before Market Opens on November 28, 2025

Published: November 27, 2025 — Pre‑market preview for Friday, November 28 (Black Friday session)

Key Points

Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) closed around $175.64, up about 2% on Wednesday, but remains roughly 40% below its level a month ago and more than 26% below where it traded after Q3 results on October 30. ^[1]
The stock’s slide comes as Bitcoin hovers near $91,000, down sharply from record highs above $120,000, and as MSCI considers removing Strategy from major equity indices, a move JPMorgan says could force billions of dollars in passive outflows. ^[2]
S&P Global recently assigned a B‑ credit rating to Strategy’s debt, highlighting high financial risk from its Bitcoin‑heavy balance sheet and limited dollar liquidity. ^[3]
Despite the sell‑off, Wall Street’s stance is still broadly constructive: TD Cowen and Mizuho both reiterate Buy ratings, and MarketBeat data show a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average target around $480–$535 — nearly triple the current price. ^[4]
Strategy continues to operate as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with close to 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet and a cost basis in the mid‑$70,000s per coin, but it may have paused its weekly accumulation last week as its share price premium over net asset value shrank. ^[5]

With U.S. markets set for a shortened Black Friday session on November 28, 2025, here’s what traders and investors are watching in Strategy Inc stock before the opening bell.

Where Strategy Inc Stock Stands Before Friday’s Open

As of the latest close, Strategy Inc (MSTR) finished around $175.64, after trading roughly between $168 and $181 on volume north of 20 million shares. ^[6]

MarketBeat and related filings show: ^[7]

Market cap: ≈ $50–53 billion
Trailing P/E: mid‑teens
12‑month range: about $166 (low) to $457 (high)
Beta: well above 3, underscoring extreme volatility
Institutional ownership: roughly 60% of the float
Insider ownership: about 8–9%

The stock has:

Fallen about 40% over the past month, while Bitcoin is down closer to 20–30% over the same period. ^[8]
Dropped more than 26% since Strategy reported fiscal Q3 results on October 30, 2025, even though that quarter showed multibillion‑dollar headline profits. ^[9]
Traded roughly 70% below its cycle peak, according to recent analysis, as the stock’s once‑lofty premium to the value of its Bitcoin has compressed. ^[10]

Heading into Friday’s session, MSTR is still essentially a high‑beta Bitcoin proxy — just one layered with leverage, complex financing, and new index‑provider risks.

From MicroStrategy to Strategy: A Pure Bitcoin Treasury Play

In 2025, MicroStrategy rebranded as Strategy Inc, cementing its evolution from an enterprise analytics vendor into what is effectively a publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company. ^[11]

Key structural features of the story:

Strategy provides AI‑enhanced analytics and BI software, but the software segment now contributes a relatively modest portion of overall value. ^[12]
The company has aggressively accumulated Bitcoin since 2020, financing purchases with convertible debt, multiple series of perpetual preferred stock (STRF, STRC, STRK, STRD) and equity sold via at‑the‑market (ATM) programs. ^[13]
By late October, Strategy reported holding around 640,000+ BTC, worth roughly $70–71 billion at then‑prevailing prices, at a total cost basis in the mid‑$70,000s per coin. ^[14]

Q3 2025: Huge Paper Profit, Big Targets

Strategy’s Q3 2025 earnings print on October 30 was eye‑catching: ^[15]

Net income: about $2.8 billion
Diluted EPS: roughly $8.42
Operating income: ~$3.9 billion, swinging from a large loss in the prior year
Software revenue: ≈ $129 million, up roughly 11% year on year, with subscription revenue growing much faster
Bitcoin holdings: about 640,808 BTC, valued near $70.9 billion at the time

Management has talked about “BTC yield” and “BTC dollar gains” as key metrics and is targeting around 30% BTC yield and $20 billion in Bitcoin‑related gains for full‑year 2025, assuming high‑five‑figure to six‑figure BTC prices. ^[16]

That upbeat long‑term framing, however, is colliding with a wave of near‑term concerns.

Why MSTR Has Been Under Heavy Pressure

1. MSCI Index‑Removal Risk and Passive Selling

Perhaps the biggest new overhang is that MSCI is considering rule changes that could push Strategy out of major equity indices, including MSCI USA and MSCI World, because of its very high crypto exposure. ^[17]

A recent summary of JPMorgan research indicates that if Strategy is indeed removed, passive and index‑tracking funds could be forced to sell between roughly $2.8 billion and potentially as much as $8.8 billion of MSTR and its related preferreds. ^[18]

Analysts note that:

The entire “digital asset treasury” cohort has seen market value erased as investors digest the prospect of forced index outflows. ^[19]
Strategy’s stock has logged seven consecutive weekly declines, falling in eight of the last ten sessions, as the MSCI narrative accelerated. ^[20]

Executive chairman Michael Saylor has pushed back, arguing in interviews and in commentary on the WSJ report that Strategy is “not a fund” and will not change its plan even if it is cut from MSCI indices. ^[21]

2. S&P’s B‑ Credit Rating and Rising Funding Costs

On October 27, 2025, S&P Global Ratings assigned Strategy a B‑ issuer credit rating, the first time a major agency has rated a pure Bitcoin‑treasury company. ^[22]

S&P flagged several concerns:

The business model is “bitcoin‑centric” with significant financial risk.
Strategy carries large obligations in U.S. dollars — in the form of debt and preferred dividends — while most of its assets are in Bitcoin, creating a currency mismatch that could force BTC sales in a downturn.
Operating cash flow from the software business has been relatively weak compared to the size of the balance sheet. ^[23]

Those warnings intersect with new reporting that Strategy’s financing costs are rising sharply:

A flagship variable‑rate preferred share, STRC, is seeing its dividend rate step up from roughly 9% to 11% after trading below par, raising the cost of capital. ^[24]
Investor’s Business Daily and others estimate the company now faces on the order of $800 million a year in interest and preferred dividends, and may need to deal with about $1 billion in convertible debt coming due in 2027. ^[25]
Some analyses note that Strategy’s enterprise value now exceeds the market value of its Bitcoin, suggesting the stock’s traditional premium to its underlying BTC has largely evaporated for now. ^[26]

Taken together, this means MSTR is no longer just a leveraged way to own Bitcoin; it is also a credit and capital‑markets story, where access to cheap financing is critical.

3. Bitcoin Drawdown and Shrinking Premium

Bitcoin itself is trading around $90,000–91,000 after falling from record highs near $125,000–126,000 in recent weeks. ^[27]

One analysis cites a roughly 25% correction in BTC from its peak to recent lows below $90,000. ^[28]
Over that same stretch, MSTR has fallen about 40%, underscoring how the stock’s leverage and the MSCI overhang can amplify moves in the underlying asset. ^[29]

CoinDesk recently noted that Strategy may have paused Bitcoin purchases last week, ending a six‑week streak of Sunday/Monday buying announcements, and that MSTR is now trading just a little above 1.1× its net asset value — the lowest premium of the current cycle. ^[30]

That lower premium makes it harder for Strategy to issue new shares in a way that is meaningfully accretive to its BTC per share, potentially constraining the “Bitcoin factory” model that powered earlier phases of the rally.

Bulls Still See Upside: What Optimists Are Focusing On

Despite this barrage of headwinds, a cluster of analysts and institutions remain constructive on Strategy heading into Friday’s open.

Street Ratings: “Moderate Buy” and Triple‑Digit Upside Targets

Recent research and aggregation sites report: ^[31]

TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza reiterated a Buy rating on MSTR with a $535 price target after the company completed a €620 million preferred stock offering, arguing that negative sentiment on Strategy “is essentially a negative bias against Bitcoin.”
Mizuho has maintained a bullish stance following the Q3 print, highlighting the firm’s ability to raise roughly $18–20 billion in capital year‑to‑date and pointing to Bitcoin‑linked earnings leverage. ^[32]
Across Wall Street, MarketBeat data show a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target in the high‑$400s to low‑$500s, far above the current $170s. ^[33]

Analysts who like the story generally argue that:

Strategy offers leveraged exposure to Bitcoin’s long‑term adoption without the management fees of an ETF.
The company’s software business, while small relative to BTC, is growing at high single to low double digits, providing some diversification. ^[34]
If Bitcoin resumes its uptrend and index‑removal fears prove overblown or temporary, MSTR’s premium to its BTC holdings could expand again.

Institutional Flows: Both Buyers and Sellers

Ownership data show healthy institutional participation, even as some large holders have reduced exposure: ^[35]

A Coinpedia/TradingView analysis highlighted that several major institutions cut more than $5.4 billion of Strategy holdings last quarter, apparently positioning ahead of potential delisting from key indices. ^[36]
At the same time, Steward Partners Investment Advisory LLC boosted its stake by 38.9% in Q2 to about 13,736 shares (≈$5.55 million), while Harfst & Associates Inc. raised its position nearly 60% to 4,800 shares. ^[37]
Another filing shows J.W. Cole Advisors increasing its holdings by 25.3% to over 10,000 shares, and several large institutions — including Legal & General, Charles Schwab Investment Management, the Swiss National Bank, and others — have also added to positions. ^[38]

Overall, hedge funds, pensions, and asset managers own close to 60% of the company, a sign that MSTR remains very much on institutional radar despite the volatility. ^[39]

What Strategy Is Doing With Its Bitcoin — And Why It Matters

Aggressive Accumulation, Then a Pause

In mid‑November, Strategy executed one of its largest weekly Bitcoin purchases ever, acquiring 8,178 BTC for about $835.6 million between November 10 and 16 at an average price near $102,000 per coin. ^[40]

That pushed total reported holdings to around 649,870 BTC, acquired at a cumulative cost of roughly $48 billion (about $74,400 per Bitcoin). ^[41]

Around the same time, the company:

Sold roughly $69.5 million in MSTR shares via ATM programs and used proceeds to buy additional BTC. ^[42]
Continued to issue multiple tranches of perpetual preferred securities, such as STRC and STRF, building out what Saylor describes as a Bitcoin‑backed credit platform. ^[43]

However, CoinDesk reports that Strategy did not appear to add to its BTC position last week, ending a run of six consecutive weekly buys. The firm still holds close to 650,000 coins, but the timing suggests management may be sensitive to the falling stock premium and rising funding costs. ^[44]

Record Bitcoin‑Backed Credit Volume

Another emerging angle is Strategy’s Bitcoin‑backed lending and credit activity:

Recent coverage highlights that the company’s Bitcoin credit volume has hit a record weekly high, even as MSTR shares slide. ^[45]
Reports note that crypto‑collateralized loans across the industry have surged to over $70 billion in outstanding balances, with Strategy leaning into this market as it experiments with new Bitcoin‑secured perpetual preferreds and structured credit instruments. ^[46]

Supporters say this turns Bitcoin volatility into income, helping offset some of the carrying cost of such a large BTC hoard. Critics counter that layering leverage on top of a volatile asset introduces new fragilities, especially if credit markets seize up.

Sentiment Check: Cramer, Schiff, Chanos and Saylor

Few stocks sit at the intersection of crypto, leverage, and macro sentiment as squarely as Strategy — and that shows up in commentary from high‑profile voices.

Jim Cramer has repeatedly warned viewers away from MSTR, calling Strategy’s combination of owning around 3% of all Bitcoin and financing it with more than $8 billion in debt an “insane amount of risk.” He’s also highlighted the danger of forced selling if index providers eject the stock and passive ETFs are compelled to exit. ^[47]
Gold advocate Peter Schiff argues that Bitcoin and Ethereum treasury companies have “no viable business model”, and that Strategy would have been better off owning almost any other asset than Bitcoin over the long run. ^[48]
Veteran short seller Jim Chanos recently disclosed he has closed his “short of the year” trade against Strategy, locking in gains after the big drawdown. That doesn’t mean he’s bullish; rather, he suggested much of his initial thesis has already played out in the price. ^[49]

On the other side:

Michael Saylor continues to frame Bitcoin as “superior collateral” and views volatility as a feature, not a bug. He has discussed using perpetual preferreds and Bitcoin‑secured credit structures as “revolutionary treasury instruments” and insists Strategy’s long‑term plan won’t change even if MSCI and other index providers move away. ^[50]
Several crypto analysts — including those cited by CoinDesk and Decrypt — still describe Strategy as a “preferred hedge” for some investors against wider crypto losses, although they acknowledge that cheaper spot Bitcoin ETFs now compete for that role. ^[51]

The result is a polarized sentiment profile: MSTR is either viewed as an overleveraged “scheme of Bitcoin” (in Cramer’s phrasing) or as a pioneering Bitcoin‑native balance sheet whose volatility must be tolerated to harvest long‑run upside.

What To Watch in Strategy Stock on November 28, 2025

Heading into Friday’s shortened Black Friday session, several catalysts could shape how MSTR trades:

1. Overnight Bitcoin Moves and ETF Flows

Because Strategy’s equity effectively turbo‑charges Bitcoin exposure, pre‑market action on Friday will likely track:

Bitcoin’s overnight move relative to the current ~$91,000 level. ^[52]
Indications from spot Bitcoin ETFs and futures once electronic markets reopen, which often drive sentiment for all BTC‑linked equities.

A sharp rebound above recent resistance could relieve some pressure on MSTR; another leg down would keep the focus on liquidity and margin of safety.

2. Any New Commentary on MSCI and Index Rules

Investors will continue to scan:

For formal updates from MSCI regarding proposed crypto‑exposure caps.
For additional responses from Saylor or management, especially around whether Strategy might adjust capital‑raising plans or structure future offerings differently in light of index pressure. ^[53]

Even small hints that MSCI could soften or phase in any rule changes might be read as a positive surprise.

3. Signs of Balance‑Sheet De‑Risking or Fresh BTC Buys

Traders will also watch:

Regulatory filings (8‑Ks, prospectus supplements, 13Ds/13Gs) for clues on new preferred or note offerings, ATM share issuance, or opportunistic buybacks in the preferred complex. ^[54]
Social‑media channels and press releases for any new Bitcoin accumulation announcements or confirmation that last week’s pause was temporary.

A surprise BTC purchase at lower prices could be framed as savvy averaging down — or, by skeptics, as doubling down into a tightening liquidity box.

4. Technical Levels and mNAV Discount/Premium

Finally, market participants are tracking:

The recent $166–$170 area, near the 12‑month low, as immediate support. ^[55]
The relationship between MSTR’s share price and its estimated net asset value (mNAV). With the premium now barely above 1×, further downside could push the stock toward a discount, potentially forcing a rethink of Strategy’s capital‑raising playbook. ^[56]

Bottom Line: A High‑Risk, High‑Conviction Bitcoin Proxy

Going into the November 28, 2025 open, Strategy Inc stock sits at the center of three overlapping stories:

Bitcoin’s path after a sharp correction from all‑time highs.
Index‑provider and credit‑rating scrutiny that challenges the company’s leveraged Bitcoin‑treasury model.
Ongoing institutional debate over whether Strategy is a visionary balance‑sheet innovation or simply too risky to hold in size.

If Bitcoin stabilizes and MSCI’s final rules prove less punitive than feared, MSTR’s compressed valuation could give it room to rebound. If, instead, BTC continues to slide and index removals trigger forced selling while funding costs rise, pressure on the stock — and potentially on Strategy’s capital structure — could intensify.

Either way, MSTR remains a highly speculative vehicle, combining crypto volatility, leverage, and policy risk. Anyone considering it should treat it as a high‑risk position and rely on their own research, risk tolerance, and (where appropriate) professional financial advice — not on headlines alone.

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