Black Friday 2025 Preview: Walmart (WMT) Stock Near Record Highs Ahead of Nasdaq Move and CEO Transition

Published: November 27, 2025 – before the U.S. market reopens for its shortened Black Friday session on Friday, November 28, 2025

Walmart Stock Heading Into Black Friday: Near All‑Time Highs

Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) goes into Black Friday trading sitting right around record territory. Shares closed on Wednesday, November 26, at $109.10, an all‑time closing high and just below the recent intraday peak of $109.59. ^[1]

That puts Walmart up roughly around 20% over the past year, comfortably ahead of the broader market’s gains, and makes it the largest consumer‑staples company by market cap, ahead of Costco and Procter & Gamble. ^[2]

With U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday, November 27, trading resumes on Friday, November 28 in a shortened Black Friday session, with the NYSE and Nasdaq scheduled to close at 1 p.m. ET. ^[3] That means tomorrow’s pre‑market and opening auction could be especially important as investors position around one of the biggest retail days of the year.

Q3 FY26: A “Beat and Raise” Quarter Built on E‑Commerce and Ads

Much of Walmart’s recent share‑price strength comes from a strong Q3 FY26 earnings report released on November 20. ^[4] Key highlights:

Revenue: $179.5 billion, up 5.8% year over year and ahead of Wall Street consensus near $177–178 billion. ^[5]
Adjusted EPS: $0.62, topping expectations of $0.60. ^[6]
Comp sales (U.S., ex‑fuel): Up about 4.5%, slightly above analyst models. ^[7]
Global e‑commerce: Up ~27–28%, the seventh straight quarter of 20%+ growth. ^[8]
Global advertising: Up 53%, powered by Walmart Connect in the U.S. and the acquisition of Vizio. ^[9]

Walmart also raised its full‑year FY26 guidance, now expecting: ^[10]

Revenue growth of 4.8%–5.1% (previously 3.75%–4.75%)
Operating income growth of 4.8%–5.5%
Adjusted EPS of $2.58–$2.63 (up from $2.52–$2.62)

Roth Capital Markets analyst Bill Kirk described the quarter as a “modest beat‑and‑raise”, highlighting that Walmart’s accelerating e‑commerce and high‑margin advertising business are “dramatically separating” it from traditional brick‑and‑mortar rivals. ^[11]

For traders heading into Friday, the takeaway is simple: fundamentals are running ahead of expectations, even as management continues to flag a cautious low‑to‑middle‑income consumer.

CEO Doug McMillon’s Retirement and Insider Selling: Signal or Noise?

One of the biggest corporate headlines this month: long‑time CEO Doug McMillon is stepping down.

On November 14, Walmart announced that McMillon, 59, will retire as CEO on January 31, 2026. ^[12]
John Furner, currently president and CEO of Walmart U.S., will become CEO on February 1, 2026. ^[13]
McMillon will remain on the board through the next shareholder meeting and continue in an advisory role for a transition period. ^[14]

Under McMillon’s 12‑year tenure as CEO, Walmart’s revenue climbed to a record $681 billion and the stock price roughly quadrupled, outpacing the S&P 500 and transforming the company into a tech‑driven omnichannel giant. ^[15]

The leadership news initially knocked the stock lower in pre‑market trading on the announcement day, with some investors surprised by the timing. ^[16] But the share price has since recovered to all‑time highs, suggesting the market is increasingly comfortable with Furner as a continuity candidate.

On top of the CEO transition, there’s been headline‑grabbing insider selling:

A TipRanks analysis notes that McMillon has been steadily selling about 19,400 shares per month since June under a 10b5‑1 trading plan, raising over $10 million while still retaining a large stake. ^[17]
MarketBeat data show that insiders, including senior executives, have sold around 138,600 shares worth roughly $14.5 million over the past 90 days. ^[18]

Taken in isolation, insider selling near record highs can look ominous. But the context matters:

Much of the selling is pre‑scheduled under trading plans. ^[19]
Insiders collectively still own a meaningful stake, while institutional investors continue to add (more on that below). ^[20]

For Friday’s open, traders will be watching whether any new SEC filings land overnight that show fresh insider moves, but so far the pattern looks more like profit‑taking at elevated prices than a sudden loss of confidence.

Walmart’s Nasdaq Switch and AI Chatbot “Sparky” Underscore Its Tech Pivot

Another story that matters for how investors value Walmart: it is increasingly being treated less like a sleepy big‑box retailer and more like a tech‑enabled, growth‑oriented platform.

Two recent developments reinforce that narrative:

Nasdaq Relisting
- On November 20, Walmart announced it will move its primary listing from the NYSE to the Nasdaq Global Select Market on December 9, 2025, while keeping the “WMT” ticker. ^[21]
- The Financial Times notes that Walmart will be the largest company by sales ever to switch exchanges, a move that underscores how deeply technology is now embedded in its business model. ^[22]
While the exchange change doesn’t alter the underlying business, it can:
- Boost visibility among tech‑oriented investors and ETFs,
- Slightly affect trading dynamics and liquidity, especially around index and ETF rebalancing in December.
Monetizing AI Through Ads in “Sparky”
- Benzinga reports that Walmart is testing advertising inside its AI shopping assistant “Sparky,” including a new “Sponsored Prompt” format built into the chatbot in its mobile app. ^[23]
- Sparky helps customers compare products, summarize reviews, and get personalized shopping suggestions—similar to using a consumer‑facing large language model. ^[24]
This dovetails with Walmart’s broader push into high‑margin advertising, which grew 53% globally in Q3, and with the company’s messaging that AI‑driven logistics and personalization are central to its future margin expansion. ^[25]

For investors looking ahead to Friday’s pre‑market, these tech‑centric headlines are part of why Walmart is increasingly being discussed as a “growth stock” rather than just a defensive consumer‑staples name. ^[26]

Black Friday 2025: Record Holiday Sales, Value‑Hungry Shoppers

Walmart’s Black Friday performance is always closely watched, but this year the macro backdrop is unusually mixed:

The National Retail Federation (NRF) is forecasting that U.S. holiday retail sales in November and December will exceed $1 trillion for the first time, up 3.7%–4.2% from 2024. ^[27]
An AP report today notes that Black Friday is kicking off with solid traffic and strong online spending, even as tariffs and sticky inflation keep prices elevated in categories like toys and housewares. ^[28]
Business Insider highlights that many Americans are treating this Thanksgiving‑to‑Cyber Monday stretch as a “budget holiday,” with shoppers hunting for deals, trading down brands, and leaning hard into promotions. ^[29]

In that environment, Walmart’s positioning as a value leader is a clear advantage:

Walmart has rolled out an aggressive slate of Black Friday deals spanning electronics, fashion, and household goods—from discounted iPads and TVs to deeply marked‑down beauty and clothing items. ^[30]
Major U.S. retailers including Walmart are closed on Thanksgiving Day but open early on Black Friday, reinforcing the shift away from Thanksgiving‑Day in‑store shopping to a focused Friday/Sunday push. ^[31]

Benzinga notes that quant investor Louis Navellier sees the current environment as favoring only a small handful of retail winners, naming just Costco and Walmart as the retailers he is willing to recommend because of their strong same‑store sales and value proposition. ^[32]

For Walmart stock, any early read‑through on Black Friday traffic, online order volumes or pricing strategy could move the shares in Friday’s pre‑market or early session—especially given the lighter holiday liquidity.

Valuation Check: Premium Price Tag at Record Highs

With the stock near its all‑time high, valuation is front and center for traders setting up for Friday.

MarketBeat and other aggregators show: ^[33]

Market cap: roughly $870–$880 billion
Trailing P/E: about 41x earnings
PEG ratio: near 4.8
1‑year range: ~$79.81 to $109.59

By comparison, the S&P 500’s trailing P/E ratio sits in the high‑20s, meaning Walmart trades at a significant premium to the broader market despite being a mature retailer. ^[34]

On the other hand:

Analysts are overwhelmingly positive, with “Moderate Buy” to “Strong Buy” consensus ratings. ^[35]
The average 12‑month price target clusters around $118–$122, implying high single‑digit to low double‑digit upside from current levels. ^[36]

In short, Friday’s pre‑market trade will be happening against a backdrop of high expectations and a full valuation. Any hint of weakness in consumer spending, holiday traffic, or guidance commentary later in the season could hit a richly valued stock harder than a cheaper peer.

Institutional Buying vs. Insider Selling

While insiders have been net sellers in recent months, institutional investors have been quietly adding to their Walmart positions:

Vinva Investment Management boosted its stake by 28.8%, buying 63,601 shares to reach 284,538 shares valued at about $27.7 million, making Walmart its 19th‑largest holding and about 0.7% of its portfolio. ^[37]
Quadrant Capital Group increased its position by 5.7% in the second quarter, now holding 125,755 shares worth roughly $12.3 million. ^[38]
Stevens Capital Partners opened a new position, purchasing 2,387 shares in Q2, while several other wealth managers marginally increased positions. ^[39]

Across these filings, MarketBeat calculates that about 26.8% of Walmart’s stock is held by institutional investors and hedge funds. ^[40]

The net message heading into Friday’s open:

Insiders are trimming exposure after a huge multi‑year run and ahead of a leadership change.
Institutions appear comfortable adding at or near record prices, betting that Walmart’s tech‑ and data‑driven model can keep delivering growth.

What to Watch Before the Opening Bell on Friday, November 28, 2025

For traders and investors planning moves in Walmart stock before the Black Friday session starts, here are the key themes to monitor:

Pre‑Market Price and Volume
- How does WMT trade in the pre‑market relative to Wednesday’s $109.10 close and after‑hours tick near $109.21? ^[41]
- Low holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves; watch whether any sizable block trades or news catalysts push the price meaningfully away from that level.
Early Black Friday Data Points
- Third‑party reports on store traffic and online order volumes, especially in electronics and toys, could influence sentiment across the retail sector and for Walmart in particular. ^[42]
- Any commentary from Walmart, major payments networks, or analytics firms about promotional intensity or average ticket size will be closely parsed.
Macro Headlines and Tariff News
- AP and others have highlighted tariffs and economic uncertainty as key risks this season. ^[43]
- Unexpected headlines around tariffs, inflation data, or Fed expectations could shift the risk mood quickly in a shortened session.
Updates on CEO Transition or Board Commentary
- Look for additional interviews or remarks from Doug McMillon or John Furner that might refine expectations around Walmart’s strategy post‑transition. ^[44]
Progress Toward the Nasdaq Switch
- Any fresh detail from Walmart or the exchanges about the December 9 move to Nasdaq—including index rebalancing mechanics—could move stock‑specific flows as quant and ETF investors adjust. ^[45]

Bottom Line

Heading into the November 28 Black Friday session, Walmart stock is priced for excellence:

It’s near all‑time highs,
Riding a strong Q3 beat and raised guidance,
Backed by double‑digit e‑commerce and ad growth,
Navigating a CEO transition and a high‑profile move to Nasdaq,
And operating in a holiday season that’s expected to top $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales—but with value‑conscious consumers watching every dollar. ^[46]

For traders in tomorrow’s pre‑market, that combination means WMT is both an opportunity and a test case: if Walmart can keep delivering tech‑powered growth while defending its value reputation in a tougher economy, the current premium multiple may remain justified. If not, the holiday period could mark a turning point after a remarkable run.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.