Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is back on traders’ screens this Friday as its share price hovers in the high‑$80s and Wall Street leans into a new narrative: a cleaner AI‑and–data‑center story, aggressive buybacks, and a potentially explosive Q3 FY26 earnings report just days away. [1]
Shares of Marvell ended November 28 around $89.40, giving the semiconductor designer a market capitalization of roughly $77 billion and placing the stock in the upper third of its 52‑week range between about $47 and $127. [2]
Below is a deep dive into all the major MRVL stock news dated November 28, 2025, and how it fits into the bigger picture for investors following Marvell’s AI infrastructure story.
Key Takeaways for MRVL Stock on November 28, 2025
- Price & volatility: MRVL trades around the high‑$80s after opening near $87.7, rebounding from a tough year in which the stock remains well below its 2024 highs but has rallied sharply over recent weeks. [3]
- AI‑first pivot: New analysis highlights Marvell’s exit from its automotive business, heavier investment in data‑center and AI silicon, and a $1 billion accelerated share buyback, on top of a $5 billion repurchase authorization. [4]
- Earnings expectations: Wall Street is looking for Q3 FY26 revenue near $2.06 billion (+~36% YoY) and non‑GAAP EPS around $0.74–$0.75 (+~70%+ YoY) ahead of the company’s December 2, 2025 earnings release and conference call. [5]
- Institutional & insider activity: Multiple institutions added to MRVL in Q2, while others trimmed positions; overall, about 83.5% of shares are institutionally owned, and senior executives have been buying stock. [6]
- Valuation debate: Analyst 12‑month targets cluster in the mid‑$90s to low‑$100s, but some fair‑value models sit closer to $60, while bullish scenarios stretch above $120, underlining how divided the market is on MRVL’s risk‑reward. [7]
Marvell Technology Stock Today: Price Action and Technical Backdrop
According to data providers StockInvest and MarketBeat, Marvell Technology ended Friday, November 28 at about $89.40 per share, after opening near $87.72. That puts the stock: [8]
- Within a 12‑month range of roughly $47.1–$127.5
- At a market cap of about $77 billion
- Above its 200‑day moving average (~$76) and slightly above its 50‑day moving average (~$86) [9]
Meyka’s AI‑driven analysis earlier in the day flagged a recent session where MRVL rose 5.14% to $87.72 on volume just below its 21.5 million‑share average, with momentum indicators like RSI around the mid‑50s and an ADX near 18 — suggesting upward bias but not yet a strong, established trend. [10]
Investor’s Business Daily also highlighted an improvement in Marvell’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating from 67 to 75, noting that the company’s most recent financial report showed a 123% increase in earnings and a 58% rise in sales, and that MRVL now ranks ninth in the fabless semiconductor group. However, the publication pointed out that many big winners historically sport RS Ratings above 80, implying the technical setup is improving but not yet in prime breakout territory. [11]
In short: technicals have turned from weak to constructive, but the stock is still in recovery mode after a bruising year for late‑cycle AI semiconductor names.
The Big Story Today: Marvell’s AI Pivot and Business Realignment
Exiting Automotive, Doubling Down on AI Data Centers
Simply Wall St’s November 28 analysis — widely shared in syndication — argues that Marvell’s decision to sell its automotive business and reinvest in its data‑center segment is central to the latest leg higher in the stock, which they frame as a 13.3% move following the announcements and subsequent analyst support. [12]
Key elements of that narrative:
- Marvell is increasingly concentrated in AI and data‑center infrastructure, anchored by hyperscaler partnerships and custom silicon wins. [13]
- A $1 billion accelerated share repurchase (ASR) is being funded in part by proceeds from the automotive divestiture, signaling management’s conviction that MRVL is undervalued relative to its long‑term growth profile. [14]
- Internal forecasts cited in the analysis envision revenue reaching about $12.1 billion and earnings roughly $2.9 billion by 2028, implying high‑teens annual revenue growth from current levels and a sharp swing from today’s marginal profitability. [15]
The upside of this pivot is a cleaner, higher‑growth story tied to AI accelerators, optical interconnects, high‑speed networking and custom data‑center silicon. The downside is greater dependence on a handful of hyperscale cloud buyers, which increases cyclicality and customer‑concentration risk if AI capex ever cools. [16]
Massive Buyback Firepower
Several of today’s institutional‑flow stories from MarketBeat reference Marvell’s board‑approved $5.0 billion share repurchase program, which authorizes buybacks of up to roughly 7.8% of outstanding shares. [17]
That umbrella program sits above the newer $1 billion accelerated buyback highlighted by Simply Wall St, giving Marvell substantial flexibility to offset dilution from stock‑based compensation and potentially support EPS growth even if equity markets remain choppy. [18]
Analyst Buzz: AI Optics, Microsoft ASIC Wins and Earnings Preview
UBS Boosts Price Target on AI Optics Momentum
In Insider Monkey’s “10 AI Stocks on the Market’s Radar,” Marvell lands in the number‑six slot, thanks largely to a fresh price‑target hike from UBS, which raised its target from $105 to $110 while reiterating a Buy rating. [19]
According to that report, UBS:
- Sees near‑term upside from Marvell’s optical interconnect business (“AI optics”) as GPU‑rich clusters drive higher optics attach rates
- Is factoring in additional Microsoft‑related ASIC revenue beginning in late 2026 and 2027
- Now models CY27 EPS around $4.43, up from prior estimates near $3.85, while still applying a relatively standard 25x forward P/E, yielding the new $110 target [20]
That call fits neatly with a broader narrative from Seeking Alpha and others that Marvell is “positioned at the center of the AI trend”, supplying custom chips, high‑speed connectivity and coherent optics that sit beneath the better‑known accelerators from NVIDIA and other GPU vendors. [21]
Zacks: Earnings Beat ‘Likely’ as AI and Networking Segments Accelerate
Zacks’ November 28 earnings preview, syndicated via Finviz and Yahoo Finance, reiterates that Marvell is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results after the market close on December 2, 2025, and lays out the Street’s expectations: [22]
- Revenue guidance: about $2.06 billion ±5%, implying roughly 36% year‑over‑year growth
- Non‑GAAP EPS guidance: around $0.74 ±$0.05, with consensus at $0.74–$0.75 — roughly 70–75% growth vs. last year’s comparable quarter [23]
Zacks’ model goes further, breaking down expected segment contributions:
- Data center revenue: estimated near $1.49 billion, up roughly 35% YoY, driven by custom AI accelerators and high‑bandwidth memory‑rich XPUs.
- Carrier infrastructure: projected to almost double to roughly $169 million, as telecom spending on high‑speed access, switches and optical transport rebounds.
- Enterprise networking: expected to climb sharply to around $256 million (+~67% YoY) as customer inventories normalize. [24]
Given Marvell’s streak of recent beats and a positive Earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), the firm argues an upside surprise is “likely,” though it stresses that consumer and industrial/automotive headwinds could partially offset the strength in core AI and networking segments. [25]
Other Pre‑Earnings Views
- TipRanks notes that Wall Street, on average, is looking for EPS of $0.74 and revenue around $2.07 billion, with MRVL having missed consensus in two of the last nine quarters — a reminder that execution risk remains. [26]
- Seeking Alpha’s latest earnings‑preview headline today characterizes MRVL as a “Buy” ahead of a likely beat, arguing the stock still under‑prices the durability of its AI data‑center and electro‑optics growth, particularly after its sharp pullback earlier in 2025. [27]
- Trefis emphasizes historical volatility around earnings: MRVL has moved between –20% and +23% on several recent reports, including a roughly –18.6% reaction to Q2 FY26 results at the end of August. [28]
All of this adds up to one clear theme: expectations are high, and the stock has a history of big post‑earnings moves when those expectations are reset.
Institutional Flows and Insider Buying: Who’s Trading Marvell Now?
Several MarketBeat “instant alert” filings published on November 28 shine a light on who has been buying — and selling — MRVL in recent quarters. [29]
New Positions and Add‑Ons
- Global Retirement Partners LLC disclosed a new Q2 position of 10,612 shares, worth roughly $821,000 at the time of filing.
- Vinva Investment Management Ltd boosted its stake by nearly 40% to 60,821 shares, valued around $4.7 million.
- Several smaller firms, including Taylor Frigon Capital Management and Waterfront Wealth, also increased positions, contributing to overall institutional ownership of about 83.5% of the float. [30]
A Large Holder Trims Exposure
In contrast, Korea Investment CORP reported selling 46,095 shares in Q2, trimming its MRVL stake by about 6% to 723,400 shares (roughly 0.08% of the company), still worth nearly $56 million. [31]
That mix of new buying and selective trimming suggests institutions are not monolithic on Marvell, but overall positioning remains heavily tilted toward ownership, not abandonment.
Insider Confidence: COO and CFO Buying Shares
The same filings reveal noteworthy insider activity:
- COO Chris Koopmans purchased 6,800 shares around $78 per share, boosting his holdings by nearly 7%.
- CFO Willem Meintjes added 3,400 shares at similar prices, lifting his stake by around 2.6%.
- In total, insiders bought about 27,200 shares (~$2.1 million) over the last quarter, while insiders collectively own roughly 0.19% of the company. [32]
Insider buying doesn’t guarantee future gains, but it aligns management’s incentives with shareholders and often signals confidence that current valuations are attractive relative to internal expectations.
Is Marvell Stock Cheap, Expensive, or “About Right”?
One reason MRVL draws such intense debate is that different valuation lenses tell very different stories.
Analyst Targets: Mid‑$90s to Low‑$100s
Across several tracking services:
- MarketBeat compiles 3 Strong Buy, 20 Buy and 15 Hold ratings, with an average target of about $94.4, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels. [33]
- StockAnalysis lists a $95 average target from 32 analysts, with a low near $67 and a high of $149, and an overall “Buy” consensus. [34]
- Meyka’s AI‑based aggregator is more optimistic, showing an average target around $102.5, a high estimate of $122, and a distribution of 1 “strong buy,” 16 “buy” and 9 “hold” ratings — a tilt the platform characterizes as a “strong buy” consensus. [35]
So depending on which source you favor, the Street sees roughly 6–15% upside over the next 12 months.
Fundamental Models: From $60 to $120+ Fair Value
Simply Wall St’s valuation‑focused article earlier this month, republished by Sahm Capital, offers a more conservative perspective: [36]
- A discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model using Marvell’s roughly $1.48 billion in trailing free cash flow and projected growth to about $4.23 billion by 2030 yields a fair value near $60 per share — about 45% below current prices.
- On a price‑to‑sales basis, Marvell trades around 10.4x trailing sales, compared with about 4.8x for the broader semiconductor industry and roughly 16.5x for a selected high‑growth peer group. Their proprietary “fair ratio” puts MRVL’s justified P/S closer to 11.5x, suggesting the stock may be roughly fairly valued by that metric.
The same community‑driven narrative platform shows individual investor fair‑value estimates ranging from about $58 to $122 per share, underscoring just how wide the range of plausible outcomes looks for a company riding an uncertain AI capex cycle. [37]
Market Multiples and Sector Context
Trefis data and other valuation snapshots indicate that, at today’s price: [38]
- MRVL trades at roughly 9–10x trailing sales, negative trailing P/E (due to still‑thin net margins), and a P/E‑to‑growth (PEG) ratio just over 1 based on forward EPS estimates.
- Sector averages for large‑cap semiconductors sit closer to 3x sales, making Marvell clearly more expensive than the average chip stock, though still cheaper than some faster‑growing AI peers.
In other words, Marvell already carries an AI premium — and today’s bullish commentary largely argues that the earnings ramp will grow into that premium, while skeptics warn that any slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could leave investors overexposed.
What Q3 FY26 Needs to Prove
Given the weight of today’s coverage, the December 2 earnings release and call will likely be judged on a few key axes: [39]
- Sustained AI data‑center momentum
- Can Marvell hit or beat the roughly $1.5 billion data‑center revenue mark the models are penciling in?
- Are custom ASIC and XPU attach wins broadening beyond early flagship projects with cloud hyperscalers?
- Recovery in carrier and enterprise networking
- Zacks’ estimates imply near‑doubling carrier revenue and two‑thirds growth in enterprise networking as inventories normalize. Investors will want to see whether the order book supports that rebound into 2026. [40]
- Margin and cash‑flow trajectory
- With last quarter’s $2.01 billion in revenue (+57.6% YoY) and $0.67 EPS, but still a slightly negative net margin, the Street will watch gross margin and operating leverage closely to gauge how quickly AI wins translate into durable profitability. [41]
- Capital‑allocation clarity
- Management will be pressed on how it intends to deploy its $5 billion buyback authorization and $1 billion ASR, as well as how aggressively it plans to invest in new AI products versus returning cash to shareholders. [42]
- Guidance vs. lofty expectations
- UBS and others are already discussing potential FQ4 (January) revenue guidance as high as $2.2 billion, above current consensus. Anything below that kind of “whisper number” could disappoint a market that has quickly rotated back into AI themes. [43]
Bull vs. Bear: How Today’s News Shapes the MRVL Debate
The Bull Case (as Reflected in Today’s Coverage)
Supportive commentary from Zacks, UBS, Seeking Alpha and several AI‑themed lists leans on a few core arguments: [44]
- Structural AI tailwinds: Marvell’s custom accelerators, high‑speed switches and optical DSPs are tied directly to multi‑year AI infrastructure build‑outs.
- Explosive top‑line growth: Consensus expects 30–40% revenue growth this quarter, with some models projecting double‑digit annual growth through 2028. [45]
- Operating leverage ahead: Once heavy R&D and initial capex waves normalize, incremental AI revenue should drop more cleanly to the bottom line.
- Capital return and insider alignment: The mix of a $5 billion buyback program, $1 billion ASR, a modest dividend and active insider purchases are all taken as signs of management confidence. [46]
From this perspective, MRVL’s current valuation is the price of admission for a scarce, high‑quality AI infrastructure franchise.
The Bear (or At Least Cautious) Case
On the other side, more skeptical pieces — including fresh commentary noting the stock is still down 20–30% year‑to‑date despite record revenue — stress: [47]
- High expectations and rich multiples: With P/S near 9–10x and many fair‑value models clustering in the $60–$90 range, MRVL needs to keep beating and raising guidance to justify its premium. [48]
- Customer concentration risk: The company’s heavier reliance on a few hyperscalers magnifies the impact of any delays or pullbacks in AI capex. [49]
- Earnings‑reaction history: Past quarters have produced double‑digit drawdowns when Marvell’s guidance or commentary underwhelmed, reminding investors that the stock can move sharply both ways around results. [50]
From that angle, MRVL is no longer a “cheap AI play”, but rather a high‑beta, high‑expectation stock where execution missteps or macro shocks could hurt.
What Investors Will Be Watching Next
Heading into next week’s Q3 FY26 earnings call, the market will likely focus on:
- Whether data‑center AI wins are broadening fast enough to support 2026–2028 growth targets
- How management frames AI demand visibility and customer concentration
- Early color on 2026 margin expansion, not just top‑line growth
- Any updates on share‑repurchase pacing under the $5 billion program
- Progress on new products in optics, accelerators, and custom silicon for hyperscalers
For now, Marvell Technology sits at the crossroads of hype and execution: today’s news flow makes clear that Wall Street sees enormous potential in its AI‑first strategy, but also that valuation leaves little room for error.
Note: All figures and expectations above are based on publicly available data and analyst commentary as of November 28, 2025. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should do their own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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