Caterpillar (CAT) Stock on November 28, 2025: Institutional Buying, Options “Whales” and a Valuation Tug-of-War

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) capped the week with another gain on Friday, November 28, 2025, as fresh institutional holdings disclosures, heavy options activity and a new round of valuation analysis kept the stock firmly in the spotlight.

How CAT Traded on November 28, 2025

On Friday, Caterpillar shares:

• Closed at:$575.76, up about 0.35% from Thursday’s close of $573.73 ^[1]
• Intraday range: roughly $572.40 – $577.36 ^[2]
• Volume: just over 1.0 million shares, slightly below the recent average around 1.0–1.1 million ^[3]
• 52‑week range: about $267.30 – $596.21 ^[4]

Performance-wise, 2025 has been extraordinary:

• Year-to-date total return: ~60–61% ^[5]
• Approx. 1‑year total return: ~43% ^[6]

That leaves CAT trading just a few percent below its late‑October record high and firmly in “leadership stock” territory versus the broader market. ^[7]

The Big Headlines on November 28, 2025

A surprisingly dense news cycle built around CAT on November 28. The key stories were:

1. Large new stake by Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund). ^[8]
2. Additional institutional flows, including a new position by GM Advisory Group and stake trimming by F m Investments LLC. ^[9]
3. Options “whale” activity turning notably cautious, flagged by Benzinga. ^[10]
4. A valuation deep-dive from Simply Wall St questioning whether recent infrastructure wins fully justify the rally. ^[11]
5. Two Zacks Equity Research notes highlighting CAT as a heavily watched “trending stock” and pointing out the modest pullback since its last earnings beat. ^[12]

Together, these pieces paint a picture of a stock with powerful fundamental momentum and strong institutional sponsorship—but also rising expectations and pockets of short‑term caution under the surface.

Institutional Money: Norges Bank Steps In, Others Shuffle Positions

Norges Bank’s new position was the standout ownership headline:

• The sovereign wealth fund disclosed a new Q2 position of 5,579,193 CAT shares, valued at roughly $2.17 billion.
• That stake is estimated at about 1.19% of Caterpillar’s shares outstanding. ^[13]

MarketBeat’s summary of recent filings also shows:

• GM Advisory Group LLC opened a new CAT position of 1,304 shares (about $506,000 in Q2). ^[14]
• F m Investments LLCcut its stake by 41.6%, selling 15,592 shares in Q2 and finishing with 21,893 shares worth about $8.5 million. ^[15]
• Several other wealth managers and asset managers added smaller positions or increased holdings, with MarketBeat estimating total institutional and hedge‑fund ownership around 71% of the float. ^[16]

So while some managers are taking profits after CAT’s huge run, large pools of long‑term capital are still building exposure—most notably Norges Bank and other sizable institutions highlighted in the Q2 filings.

Earnings Backdrop: Strong Q3 Beat Still Driving the Story

Much of Friday’s commentary still traces back to Caterpillar’s Q3 2025 earnings (reported October 29):

• EPS: about $4.95, beating consensus by roughly $0.40+.
• Revenue: about $17.64 billion, topping expectations near $16.7 billion and up about 9.5% year over year.
• Profitability: net margin around 14% and return on equity near 47%, underscoring how operationally leveraged the business is at current volumes. ^[17]

CAT has also benefited from structural themes: data-center and AI infrastructure demand driving its energy & transportation units, and ongoing global infrastructure spending supporting both construction and resource-based segments. ^[18]

However, Zacks noted in its November 28 coverage that the stock is down about 1.6% since that earnings release, modestly lagging the S&P 500 in the same period even after Friday’s bounce. ^[19]

The takeaway: Q3 was fundamentally strong, but after a major multi‑month rally, each incremental beat now has to clear a much higher expectations bar.

Valuation Watch: Is CAT Overvalued After a 60% YTD Rally?

A detailed note from Simply Wall St, also published on November 28, took direct aim at the core investor question: does CAT’s current price still make sense? ^[20]

Key points from their analysis:

• Performance context:
  • ~59.5% gain year‑to‑date
  • ~43.4% total return over the last year
  • Roughly 2% pullback over the last month after hitting fresh highs ^[21]
• DCF-based fair value:
  • Using a discounted cash‑flow model that projects free cash flow growing from about $8.3 billion to near $13.9 billion by 2029, they estimate fair value around $548.58 per share.
  • With CAT trading near $575–$576, that implies the stock is roughly 4–5% above their DCF fair value—so “close to fairly valued,” not wildly overextended by that metric. ^[22]
• P/E vs peers:
  • Current P/E near 29x, versus about 25x for the broader machinery industry and roughly 22x for a basket of key peers.
  • However, Simply Wall St’s own “Fair Ratio” model suggests CAT could justify a higher multiple around 41x based on growth, margins and scale, implying the market still isn’t fully pricing in its long‑term earnings power. ^[23]

Their overall verdict is nuanced:

• On traditional valuation checks, CAT only scores 1 out of 6 as “undervalued,” suggesting the rally has already pulled the stock toward the upper end of its historical valuation range. ^[24]
• On growth‑adjusted and narrative‑driven metrics, they argue the premium could be justified, especially if infrastructure contracts and energy demand continue to surprise to the upside.

In simple terms: CAT doesn’t look cheap, but it also doesn’t scream bubble if you believe the higher‑growth scenario.

Wall Street’s View: “Moderate Buy” With Limited Near‑Term Upside

Across the Street, recent analyst updates line up with that “strong company, rich but not insane valuation” narrative:

• MarketBeat data shows a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating with an average price target around $610 per share. That’s only about 6% upside from Friday’s close. ^[25]
• Rating mix (depending on source): roughly 3 Strong Buys, mid‑teens Buys, several Holds and just a single Sell. ^[26]
• Several high‑profile firms have raised targets into the mid‑$600s or even low‑$700s, including JPMorgan, Truist, HSBC and Bank of America, pointing to a bull case where CAT could add another 10–20% if earnings momentum persists. ^[27]

Meanwhile, data providers such as StockAnalysis and Barchart peg CAT’s:

• Trailing P/E around 29–30x
• Forward P/E around 28x
• Dividend yield near 1.0–1.1% on an annualized $6.04 per share payout ^[28]

Analysts, in other words, generally like the story but see less room for multiple expansion from here unless earnings estimates climb again.

Options Market: Big Traders Turn Cautious

The most striking November 28 story came from Benzinga’s options desk, which highlighted unusually heavy activity in Caterpillar options:

• Their scanner picked up 23 “uncommon” options trades in CAT on the day—well above normal levels.
• By their classification, the overall sentiment among these large trades skewed heavily bearish, with only a small fraction tagged as clearly bullish. ^[29]
• The big‑ticket contracts spanned strikes from roughly $290 to $660, including:
  • A large bearish call trade around the $440 strike out in 2026
  • Several bearish call sweeps near $600–$660
  • A bullish put sweep around the $575 strike for near‑term expiries ^[30]

Benzinga’s recap also notes that:

• CAT was trading near $576 with volume just over 1.0 million shares,
• RSI readings placed the stock near overbought territory, and
• The next earnings report is expected in roughly 2 months. ^[31]

Separate options‑chain data for the November 28 expiration shows:

• High open interest clustered around several near‑the‑money strikes, and
• Substantial open interest in out‑of‑the‑money puts and calls, reflecting a wide pricing “cone” that traders are using to hedge or speculate around CAT’s elevated level. ^[32]

Put simply, big options traders seem more nervous than the stock price alone would suggest, even as the underlying shares grind higher.

Insider and Dividend Picture

Friday’s MarketBeat filings also updated the insider and dividend backdrop:

• Over the past few months, company insiders have been net sellers, unloading around 86,000 shares with an aggregate value north of $43 million, leaving insiders with about 0.33% of the stock. ^[33]
• Notable transactions include sales from the chairman and senior operating executives at prices in the low‑to‑mid $500s, which, while often driven by personal diversification or pre‑set plans, can still be read as a sign that insiders see value in crystallizing some gains. ^[34]
• On the income side, Caterpillar recently paid a quarterly dividend of $1.51 per share, or $6.04 annualized, implying a payout ratio near 31% of earnings. ^[35]

For investors, that supports the “quality compounder” narrative—moderate yield, robust earnings coverage and plenty of room for future dividend increases if cash flows continue to expand.

What Zacks Is Telling Short‑Term Traders

Zacks Equity Research published two CAT‑focused notes on November 28 that help explain why the stock is trending so heavily in retail search data:

• One article spotlighted Caterpillar as a “trending stock” on the Zacks platform and unpacked the fundamental factors driving search interest—namely strong earnings, infrastructure spending, and its role in AI‑linked power infrastructure. ^[36]
• Another piece framed the situation as “CAT down 1.6% since last earnings report: can it rebound?”, highlighting CAT’s slight underperformance relative to the S&P 500 over the last month despite the Q3 beat. ^[37]

Zacks’ angle is largely tactical: the firm points out that CAT’s near‑term trajectory will depend on how new data points—orders, backlog, tariff impacts and macro readings—feed into earnings estimate revisions. That matches what many short‑term traders will be watching into year‑end.

Key Takeaways for Investors Watching CAT After November 28

Putting the day’s headlines together, here’s the high‑level picture:

• Momentum remains powerful. CAT is up around 60% year‑to‑date and more than 40% over 12 months, with shares hovering just below their 52‑week high. ^[38]
• Ownership is “institutional‑grade.” Around 70%+ of the float is in the hands of institutions and hedge funds, with Norges Bank’s new multi‑billion‑dollar stake reinforcing the long‑term institutional bull case. ^[39]
• Valuation is full, but not outrageous. DCF work suggests CAT is only a few percentage points above one estimate of intrinsic value, while earnings‑based models justify a premium multiple if growth stays strong. ^[40]
• Options markets are flashing caution. Whale‑sized options trades skew bearish, and implied ranges for CAT stretch widely, hinting at a market that’s nervous about downside risk or at least volatility, even as the cash equity market stays bid. ^[41]
• Analyst stance: constructive but not euphoric. The Street’s Moderate Buy consensus and single‑digit percentage upside to average targets show that many positives are already priced in—any disappointment on tariffs, construction demand or AI‑driven power sales could trigger a shake‑out. ^[42]

For long‑term investors, November 28’s news flow largely reinforces the existing narrative: Caterpillar is a high‑quality industrial leader riding powerful secular tailwinds, but it’s no longer trading at a bargain price.

For short‑term traders, the tension between bullish fundamentals and cautious options positioning is likely to be the story to watch as the next earnings date approaches.

Important note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

References

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