Oracle Stock Slides to $201 as Debt and AI Jitters Collide With Strong Growth: ORCL Update for November 29, 2025

Published: November 29, 2025

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) heads into the final weeks of 2025 trading around $201.95 per share, extending a bruising November sell‑off that has erased tens of billions of dollars in market value even as the company posts double‑digit cloud growth and a record AI backlog. ^[1]

Fresh coverage on November 29 highlights a split narrative: on one side, surging AI demand, a 23% gain year‑to‑date and a $455 billion cloud backlog; on the other, a debt load racing toward $100 billion, negative free cash flow and heavy reliance on a single mega‑deal with OpenAI. ^[2]

Below is a deep dive into today’s price action, the latest news flow, and what it all means for Oracle stock heading into the crucial December 8 earnings report.

Oracle stock today: price, performance and November’s reset

A new Smartkarma “Market Movers” note published on November 29 pegs Oracle’s latest close at $201.95, down 1.47% on the day, with about 13.8 million shares changing hands. Year‑to‑date, ORCL is still up roughly 23%, underscoring how violent the recent swing has been compared with its strong run earlier in 2025. ^[3]

MarketBeat’s intraday snapshot for Friday’s U.S. session shows similar numbers: shares fell about 1.7%, dipping to an intraday low near $197.61 before rebounding to just above $201, with trading volume running about 14% below the recent average. ^[4]

Zooming out, several outlets now describe November as a “brutal” reset for Oracle:

MoneyWeek calculates that Oracle’s stock fell about 29.4% in the month ending November 13, as investors questioned whether AI capital expenditure can continue at its recent pace. ^[5]
Economic Times notes that Oracle shares are down nearly 30% over the past month, calling the stock “oversold” after it broke below the psychologically important $200 level. ^[6]
A 24/7 Wall St. analysis published November 28 reports that Oracle shares have dropped roughly 42% from a September peak around $346 to about $200, putting the stock firmly in “fallen AI darling” territory. ^[7]
The Times of India, citing Financial Times data, estimates that Oracle has shed more than $300 billion in market value since announcing its blockbuster OpenAI partnership in September, fueling talk of a “Curse of ChatGPT.” ^[8]

Despite that drawdown, Oracle’s market cap is still in the mid‑$500 billion range, and valuation remains rich. MarketBeat and Trefis both highlight a price/earnings ratio in the mid‑40s and a price/sales ratio above 10, far above the broader S&P 500. ^[9]

In other words, ORCL today is a high‑growth, high‑valuation stock that just experienced a very painful repricing—and the debate now is whether that reset has gone too far.

Debt fears and the $300 billion OpenAI bet

The sharp move lower in Oracle stock is not happening in a vacuum. A cluster of articles over the past 48 hours focuses on one theme above all: leverage.

A widely cited piece from 24/7 Wall St. lays out the new math of Oracle’s AI push: ^[10]

Oracle has issued about $18 billion in bonds and secured a $38 billion loan to fund its AI data‑center build‑out, much of it tied to serving OpenAI.
Total debt has ballooned to roughly $104 billion, up from around $90 billion a year ago.
Interest expense now consumes about 20% of Oracle’s $3 billion in quarterly net income, roughly double the pre‑AI share.
Bank of America warns that Oracle is part of a broader “AI cash crunch” in which tech companies collectively issued around $75 billion of new debt in just two months.

The Economic Times adds further color, stressing that Oracle’s free cash flow has flipped to about –$5.9 billion, after years of positive generation, as capex for AI and cloud infrastructure spikes. Credit markets are noticing: credit‑default swap prices on Oracle debt have jumped to their highest levels in roughly two years, signaling rising perceived risk. ^[11]

A Financial Times–based analysis syndicated by the Sri Lanka Guardian broadens the lens beyond Oracle to OpenAI’s entire ecosystem: ^[12]

OpenAI’s data‑center and infrastructure partners—including Oracle, SoftBank and CoreWeave—are on track to accumulate nearly $100 billion in borrowing linked to OpenAI‑related projects.
Oracle alone is flagged as “among the most aggressive fundraisers,” already issuing $18 billion in bonds and expected by KeyBanc analysts to potentially borrow up to $100 billion over the next four years to fulfill its obligations.
Many of these projects are structured through special‑purpose vehicles (SPVs), shifting some risk away from OpenAI but keeping Oracle on the hook through long‑term leases.

Layered on top of this, several reports point to Oracle’s $300 billion multi‑year cloud commitment with OpenAI, a centerpiece of the so‑called “Stargate” megaproject aimed at building out massive AI data centers. ^[13]

That commitment is a double‑edged sword:

It drove a 359% year‑over‑year surge in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) to a record $455 billion, as highlighted in a Finviz‑syndicated note summarizing Oracle’s fiscal Q1 2026 results. ^[14]
But DA Davidson now argues that almost the entire increase in RPO came from a single customer—OpenAI. In a note dated November 28, the firm cut its Oracle price target from $300 to $200 and shifted to a Neutral rating, warning that OpenAI’s later declaration of over $1 trillion in total cloud commitments suggests Oracle may have been used as a “pawn” in a broader marketing strategy. ^[15]

Put simply: Oracle’s AI backlog is enormous, but concentrated, and funded by aggressively ramping debt. That combination is driving much of November’s anxiety.

The latest commentary on November 29: fear, opportunity, and everything in between

Today’s batch of coverage about Oracle stock shows just how divided the market has become.

Smartkarma: big worries, still‑positive “Smart Score”

Smartkarma’s November 29 analysis frames the day’s 1.47% drop in ORCL against its still‑impressive year‑to‑date gain of 23%. The piece highlights several key threads: ^[16]

Morgan Stanley is said to be warning that credit protection on Oracle—essentially the cost of insuring its debt—is nearing record highs.
DA Davidson’s price‑target cut to $200 and its criticism of the OpenAI‑driven RPO spike are cited as a major overhang.
At the same time, Smartkarma’s composite “Smart Score” for Oracle stands at 3.2 out of 5, with strong sub‑scores for growth and momentum and a solid rating for resilience, suggesting a constructive long‑term outlook despite valuation concerns.

Insider Monkey: Victoria Greene stays bullish above $200

Insider Monkey’s profile of Victoria Greene, CIO of G Squared Private Wealth, notes that she remains a buyer of Oracle even after a 29% monthly decline, arguing that the company’s debt is manageable and that markets are overreacting to its AI spending spree. ^[17]

Greene’s key points:

Oracle has been using debt for years; this is not its first credit cycle.
Credit‑default swaps are still below 2022 levels, and Oracle’s bonds are not trading at distressed prices.
The stock holding around the $200 level is seen as a constructive technical signal and a potential entry point.

MarketBeat and QuiverQuant: Wall Street still skews bullish

MarketBeat’s November 28 report emphasizes that despite Friday’s dip, analyst sentiment remains broadly positive: ^[18]

ORCL carries an average rating of “Moderate Buy”.
Out of more than 40 analysts tracked, only two have Sell ratings, versus dozens of Buy or Strong Buy recommendations.
The average 12‑month price target sits around $325, implying significant upside from roughly $200.

QuiverQuant’s November 28 “DiscussionTracker” adds more detail: ^[19]

Across 30 recent price targets, the median sits at $355.
Deutsche Bank reiterated a Buy rating with a $375 target on November 26.
DA Davidson’s new $200 target is now a notable outlier on the downside.
In the background, QuiverQuant tracks heavy insider selling—including more than 8.6 million shares sold by CEO Safra Catz over six months—but also aggressive institutional buying, with firms like T. Rowe Price, UBS Asset Management, Jennison Associates, FMR and Norges Bank all adding multi‑million‑share positions during recent quarters.

This mix—bullish Wall Street targets, insider profit‑taking, and large institutional accumulation—reinforces the sense that professional investors remain interested in Oracle, but are hedging their bets.

Other major voices: from “not the next Nvidia” to “oversold AI winner”

Several high‑profile pieces over the past few days set the tone for today’s debate:

24/7 Wall St. argues that Oracle is emphatically “not the next Nvidia”, pointing to its ballooning debt load, thinner margins and AI capex expected to consume about 94% of operating cash flow (after dividends and buybacks) in 2025–26. ^[20]
Forbes warns that Oracle’s cloud business still holds only around 3% of the global infrastructure market, compared with roughly 29% for AWS, 20% for Azure and 13% for Google Cloud, amplifying worries that the company is trying to buy relevance with leveraged spending. ^[21]
MarketWatch highlights a Jefferies analysis suggesting Oracle’s stock could rebound as much as 80%, noting a $400 price target and arguing that the recent market‑cap loss exceeds the size of the OpenAI contract itself—reducing the perceived risk embedded in the share price. ^[22]
Barron’s cites a Mizuho analyst who keeps an “Outperform” rating and a $400 target, describing the more than 30% post‑September slide as an opportunity ahead of Oracle’s December earnings. ^[23]

Collectively, the latest commentary paints Oracle as a high‑beta AI infrastructure bet where conviction is still strong—but patience is being tested.

Under the hood: fundamentals still look powerful

For all the noise around debt and OpenAI, Oracle’s operating performance hasn’t fallen apart. If anything, the numbers show a company still growing briskly.

Recent results: double‑digit revenue and rapid cloud growth

In its fiscal Q1 2026 results (three months ended August 31, 2025), Oracle reported: ^[24]

Total revenue of $14.9 billion, up 12% year‑over‑year.
Cloud revenue of $7.2 billion, up 28% versus the prior year.
Operating income of about $4.3 billion, with a GAAP operating margin close to 29%.
Net income essentially flat year‑over‑year around $2.9 billion, as higher interest expense and tax items offset operating growth.

Earlier, in fiscal Q4 2025, Oracle posted revenue of $15.9 billion (up 11%), with cloud services and license support rising 14% and combined IaaS + SaaS cloud revenue growing 27%. ^[25]

Trefis’ November 20 deep‑dive corroborates the growth picture on a trailing‑12‑month basis: ^[26]

Revenue has climbed from $54 billion to $59 billion over the past year (about 9.7% growth).
Three‑year average revenue growth runs near 10%, roughly double that of the S&P 500.
Oracle’s operating margin sits around 31.6%, with a cash‑flow margin of 36.5% and net margin of about 21%.

In short, Oracle is not slumping operationally; it is spending heavily into what it believes will be a decade‑long AI and cloud up‑cycle.

Backlog and AI momentum

The RPO and backlog figures that worry some analysts are also central to the bullish case:

Oracle’s fiscal Q1 2026 report and subsequent commentary highlight RPO of roughly $455 billion, a 359% year‑over‑year jump, driven largely by multi‑year AI infrastructure commitments. ^[27]
Economic Times points out that in an earlier period Oracle’s RPO stood around $138 billion, up 41% year‑on‑year, already indicating strong forward demand even before the OpenAI megadeal landed. ^[28]

Smartkarma and ts2.tech both emphasize Oracle’s multicloud strategy, including: ^[29]

Partnerships to host Oracle cloud databases on Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud.
New, smaller on‑premises offerings like “Dedicated Region 25” for regulated and sovereign customers.
Huge AI‑focused projects such as the Jacquard AI data‑center financing and the OpenAI‑linked Stargate build‑out.

These data points help explain why many analysts still see Oracle as a key member of an emerging AI “infrastructure oligopoly,” even as debt metrics draw more scrutiny. ^[30]

Valuation, dividends and risk profile

Premium valuation, modest yield

Even after the sell‑off, Oracle’s valuation remains elevated:

MarketBeat pegs the P/E ratio around 46–47, with a market cap near $575 billion. ^[31]
Trefis estimates a price‑to‑sales ratio of 10.8 and notes a negative price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow ratio at current levels, because free cash flow has temporarily turned negative. ^[32]

For income‑oriented investors, Oracle still pays a dividend, but it is modest:

Multiple data providers show an annual dividend of $2.00 per share, implying a yield around 0.9%–1.0% at current prices, with 11 consecutive years of dividend growth. ^[33]

So ORCL today is very much a growth story, not a yield story.

Debt and cash flow: the new fault lines

The heart of the risk case is straightforward:

Total debt has climbed above $100 billion, with more likely coming if Oracle secures the rumored $38 billion loan package tied to new OpenAI‑focused data centers. ^[34]
Interest expense in Q1 FY26 was about $923 million, up roughly 10% from the prior year. ^[35]
Free cash flow has dipped into negative territory, in the neighborhood of –$5.9 billion, as AI and cloud capex ramp up. ^[36]

Analysts differ on how worrying this is:

Bears see Oracle as an emblem of an over‑leveraged AI bubble, warning that if AI workloads or pricing disappoint, the company could face years of margin pressure as it services its debt and leases. ^[37]
Bulls counter that net debt‑to‑EBITDA remains manageable (around 2.5× by some estimates), that many capex structures use SPVs to limit balance‑sheet risk, and that Oracle’s long‑dated contracts provide visibility that most software companies can only envy. ^[38]

What’s clear is that Oracle’s risk profile has changed: it is no longer just a database and applications company; it is now a highly leveraged AI infrastructure provider.

Bull vs. bear case after the November plunge

Pulling together today’s coverage, the contours of the debate look roughly like this.

The bull case

Supporters of Oracle stock highlight:

Huge AI and cloud backlog: RPO north of $450 billion and cloud revenue growing in the high‑20s to mid‑30s percent range. ^[39]
Strong operating metrics: high‑30s cash‑flow margins and low‑30s operating margins on a trailing basis, even before AI projects fully ramp. ^[40]
Analyst and institutional support: a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating, a median price target well above $300, and large asset managers continuing to add shares. ^[41]
Valuation reset: Jefferies, Mizuho and others argue that a roughly 30–40% decline from the highs has de‑risked the story and created a potential 75–80% upside if Oracle executes. ^[42]

In this view, Oracle is temporarily out of favor precisely as its AI strategy and backlog begin to kick in.

The bear case

Skeptics focus on:

Leverage and negative free cash flow at a time when interest rates remain elevated and AI valuations are under more scrutiny. ^[43]
Concentration risk: the revelation that most of the RPO jump came from a single customer—OpenAI—alongside questions about the realism of OpenAI’s trillion‑dollar cloud commitments. ^[44]
Competitive position: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure still holds only a single‑digit share of the global cloud market, far behind AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. ^[45]
Rich valuation relative to broader tech and to its own cash‑flow trajectory; Trefis, for example, argues that a pullback toward $158 is plausible if multiples compress further. ^[46]

From this angle, November’s move is less a random “dip” and more a repricing of risk in a business model that has become heavily dependent on one partner and a leveraged infrastructure bet.

Key catalysts to watch: December 8 earnings and beyond

Looking ahead, nearly every article published this week points to Oracle’s fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report on Monday, December 8, 2025 as the next major inflection point. TechStock²+1

Consensus expectations across major data providers cluster around: TechStock²

Revenue near $16.2 billion, up double digits year‑on‑year.
Non‑GAAP EPS around $1.63–$1.64.

Commentary today suggests investors will focus on three questions:

Funding strategy and leverage
How management addresses the $38 billion loan talks and broader debt trajectory—net leverage targets, SPV structures, and timing of future raises—will be crucial for credit‑sensitive investors. TechStock²+2Sri Lanka Guardian+2
Cloud margins and free cash flow
With free cash flow currently negative and AI data‑center capex high, markets will be laser‑focused on cloud gross margins, capex guidance and the timeline for turning FCF positive again. ^[47]
AI backlog quality and diversification
Any additional disclosure on how much of the backlog is tied to OpenAI versus other customers, how fast that backlog is converting to revenue, and how Oracle is diversifying its AI customer base will influence whether the stock is seen as a risky “one‑horse” bet or a broadly positioned AI infrastructure platform. ^[48]

Bottom line: Oracle stock at a high‑stakes crossroads

As of November 29, 2025, Oracle stock sits at roughly $200, down sharply from its September highs but still valued richly compared with the broader market. Debt, OpenAI concentration and negative free cash flow have become front‑page concerns, and November’s performance makes ORCL one of the worst‑hit large tech names this month. ^[49]

At the same time, Oracle’s underlying business continues to post double‑digit revenue growth, rapid cloud expansion and a massive AI‑driven backlog, while a majority of Wall Street analysts and many large institutions are still betting that the company can “sail through the debt‑backlog storm” to claim a durable spot in the AI infrastructure hierarchy. ^[50]

Whether ORCL at ~$200 is a bargain or a value trap now hinges less on what has happened in November and more on what Oracle proves in the coming quarters: can it convert backlog to high‑margin revenue fast enough to outgrow its debt, or will the AI build‑out prove to be an over‑leveraged bet on an overheated narrative?

Oracle's (ORCL) High Risk, High Reward A.I. Play #shorts