Robinhood (HOOD) Stock on November 29, 2025: MIAXdx Deal, Prediction Markets Push and the Next Phase of a 300% Rally

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) has gone from meme-era punchline to one of the most aggressively expanding fintechs on the planet — and the stock is trading like it. As of the close on Friday, November 28, 2025, Robinhood stock finished at $128.49, up roughly 242% over the past year and sitting in a 52‑week range of $29.66 to $153.86. ^[1]

In 2025 it has effectively tripled from the low-$30s to a peak above $150, making Robinhood one of the top gainers in the S&P 500 this year. ^[2]

And now, a new move into prediction markets and derivatives infrastructure is turning HOOD from a “trading app” story into a market-structure story.

The latest Robinhood (HOOD) stock news as of November 29, 2025

As of Saturday, November 29, 2025, the key headlines for Robinhood stock are:

MIAXdx / LedgerX acquisition: Robinhood is buying 90% of MIAX Derivatives Exchange (MIAXdx) and its CFTC‑regulated platform LedgerX in partnership with Susquehanna International Group (SIG), with MIAX retaining 10%. ^[3]
Prediction markets go center-stage: Prediction markets have become one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing businesses, with over 9 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million users and an estimated $300+ million in annual recurring revenue from the category. ^[4]
Stock reaction this week: HOOD shares jumped about 8–11% on the MIAXdx/ LedgerX announcement and are up more than 19% over the past week, putting Robinhood on multiple “stocks of the week” lists. ^[5]
Breakout year confirmed by fundamentals: Q3 2025 results showed revenue doubling year over year to $1.27 billion and net income surging to $556 million, while October operating data showed massive growth in trading volumes, crypto activity and margin balances. ^[6]
Valuation debate intensifies: HOOD is trading at a steep premium to traditional brokers, with estimates clustering around 40–60× earnings and a consensus “fair value” near $151 per share, implying mid-teens upside from current levels — if growth persists. ^[7]

Let’s unpack what all of this actually means.

Where Robinhood stock stands now

Robinhood’s one-year performance looks like something out of a bull market fever dream:

Last close (Nov 28, 2025): $128.49
After-hours quote: about $128.62
1‑year change: +242.27%
52‑week range: $29.66 – $153.86 ^[8]

That kind of move explains why Robinhood is frequently cited as one of 2025’s biggest winners in the S&P 500, even though it only joined the index this year. ^[9]

Longer‑term, Simply Wall St pegs the three‑year total shareholder return at roughly 1,067%, reflecting the stock’s journey from post‑IPO despair to full‑blown growth darling. ^[10]

So this is the backdrop: a stock that has already gone vertical, now layering in a whole new business line that looks suspiciously like a revenue engine.

This week’s big catalyst: MIAXdx / LedgerX and a new derivatives exchange

The most important fresh news driving HOOD this week is its move to control more of the prediction‑markets infrastructure stack.

The MIAXdx deal, in plain language

Miami International Holdings (MIAX) agreed to sell 90% of MIAXdx — a CFTC‑regulated Derivatives Exchange and Clearinghouse — to Robinhood Markets, Inc. and SIG, keeping a 10% stake. ^[11]
MIAXdx, through LedgerX, already holds the regulatory approvals needed to list and clear fully collateralized futures, options on futures and swaps. ^[12]
The deal is expected to close in Q1 2026, subject to regulatory filings and standard closing conditions. ^[13]

MarketsMedia and MIAX’s own press materials frame this as Robinhood becoming the controlling partner of a new futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, with SIG providing day‑one liquidity and MIAX retaining a strategic stake. ^[14]

CoinDesk adds an important twist: Bernstein notes that the transaction effectively gives Robinhood control over LedgerX, the derivatives venue MIAX bought out of the FTX bankruptcy in 2023. ^[15]

How the stock reacted

According to CoinDesk, Robinhood shares jumped about 8% in early trading after the news. ^[16] Finance Magnates and other outlets describe a broader move of roughly 11% as investors digested the idea that Robinhood would no longer just rent prediction‑market rails from partners like Kalshi but would own the exchange and clearinghouse itself. ^[17]

Investing.com’s weekly wrap-up notes that Robinhood stock gained more than 19% over the shortened Thanksgiving week, largely on the MIAXdx/ prediction markets story. ^[18]

Why this matters for Robinhood’s narrative

Analyst firm Bernstein estimates that:

Robinhood now generates over $300 million in annual recurring revenue from prediction markets, and
Users have traded over 9 billion event contracts, with more than 1 million customers participating. ^[19]

In other words, prediction markets have gone from “weird side experiment” to meaningful business line.

By taking control of MIAXdx / LedgerX and partnering with SIG for liquidity, Robinhood is trying to:

Cut out middlemen fees (instead of paying partners like Kalshi for access),
Control the full stack — broker, exchange, and clearinghouse, and
Accelerate product rollout, from election markets to macro and even sports or pop‑culture contracts, all under CFTC oversight. ^[20]

Front Office Sports’ interview with JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s VP and GM of Futures and International, underscores the ambition: he argues that prediction markets don’t actually need sports to thrive and sees the category as part of a broader push to make Robinhood a “financial super app.” ^[21]

Prediction markets are no longer a side quest

Prediction markets at Robinhood are basically event‑based futures and options: contracts on elections, macroeconomic releases, policy moves and other real‑world outcomes.

Across coverage by CoinDesk, Cryptonomist and others, a clear picture emerges: ^[22]

Volume has doubled repeatedly quarter after quarter since launch.
More than 9 billion contracts have traded in under a year.
Over 1 million users have participated, converting what used to be a niche into a genuine retail product category.

Analysts see two big strategic motives:

Revenue diversification
Event contracts provide recurring, fee‑based income tied to volatility in politics and macro, not just stock prices. That helps Robinhood reduce its dependence on classic equity trading and payment-for-order-flow revenues.
Owning the rails
By acquiring MIAXdx / LedgerX and building a joint venture with SIG, Robinhood can route its own massive retail flow through infrastructure it controls, rather than paying third‑party exchanges. That potentially boosts margins and gives the firm more flexibility in designing products and risk controls. ^[23]

If you zoom out, this is Robinhood trying to become something closer to “exchange + broker + crypto infrastructure” instead of just “the app you used during the GameStop squeeze.”

Earnings backdrop: Q3 2025 shows Robinhood is not just hype

The market’s willingness to reward the MIAXdx deal rests on a simple question: is the core business already working?

Based on Q3 2025 numbers, the answer is: yes, and then some.

According to Robinhood’s Q3 2025 results filed with the SEC: ^[24]

Total net revenues:
- $1.274 billion, up 100% year over year and 29% quarter over quarter.
Net income:
- $556 million, compared with $150 million a year earlier — a 271% YoY increase.
Revenue mix:
- Net interest revenue (margin loans, cash sweeps, etc.) climbed to roughly $627 million.
- Transaction-based revenue (trades in stocks, options, crypto, and now event contracts) rose to about $551 million.
- Other revenue provided the remainder.

Profits aren’t just an accounting mirage; Robinhood is solidly in the “profitable growth” bucket now.

October 2025 operating data: growth everywhere you look

The October 2025 monthly metrics show the engine underneath those earnings: ^[25]

Funded customers: 27.1 million
- Up roughly 210,000 from September and about 2.6 million higher year over year.
Total platform assets: $343 billion
- Up 3% month over month and a massive 115% year over year.
Trading activity:
- Equity notional volumes: $320.1 billion (+34% MoM, +153% YoY)
- Options contracts traded: 266.7 million (+22% MoM, +69% YoY)
- Crypto notional volumes: $32.5 billion (+38% MoM, +480% YoY)
Margin balances: $16.5 billion
- Up 19% MoM and 166% YoY.
Securities lending revenue: $60 million in October
- Up 216% YoY.

These numbers make the stock’s rally look less like pure speculation and more like “hyper‑cyclical growth”: when equity and crypto markets are hot, Robinhood’s income statement catches fire.

The crypto and tokenization play: Stock tokens and a Layer‑2 chain

The MIAXdx deal fits into a broader 2025 strategy where Robinhood is trying to sit at the intersection of TradFi and crypto rails.

In June 2025, Robinhood announced a broad crypto expansion that included: ^[26]

“Robinhood Stock Tokens” for EU customers
- Over 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, allowing European users to get exposure to US equities via on‑chain tokens with dividends and extended trading hours.
A new Arbitrum‑based Layer 2 blockchain (Robinhood Chain)
- Built specifically for tokenized real‑world assets, 24/7 trading, and self‑custody.
Perpetual crypto futures in the EU
- Up to 3× leverage, with a simplified interface aimed at active traders.
Crypto staking for assets like Ethereum and Solana in supported U.S. states.

The expansion targets over 400 million people across 30 EU and EEA countries, transforming Robinhood’s European app from “crypto only” into a full investment platform powered by blockchain. ^[27]

TradingKey’s deep dive on HOOD argues that this crypto/tokenization push — including plans to tokenize both blue‑chip stocks like Nvidia and private companies such as OpenAI and SpaceX — is a core reason the stock has surged more than 300% in 2025. ^[28]

Tie that to prediction markets, and Robinhood is building something like:

“Broker + crypto exchange + tokenization chain + event contracts + derivatives exchange”

That’s a long way from “free stock trading app.”

Valuation: Is HOOD stock getting ahead of itself?

Given the run‑up, the obvious question is whether HOOD is priced for perfection.

Multiples and price targets

Across data providers, the numbers look approximately like this:

Share price: ~$128.49
Market cap: about $127 billion. ^[29]
1‑year change: +242% ^[30]
P/E ratio: somewhere around 40–60× earnings, depending on whether you use trailing, forward, or adjusted metrics, versus low‑20s for the broader U.S. capital‑markets sector. ^[31]

Simply Wall St’s narrative suggests a “fair value” of roughly $151.14, implying that HOOD might be around 29% undervalued relative to their growth model — but they also highlight that its P/E is roughly double that of peers. ^[32]

Separate coverage notes that Wall Street’s consensus price target has nudged slightly down to around $151, from just over $151 earlier, still leaving roughly mid‑teens upside from current levels. ^[33]

Bernstein, after the MIAXdx announcement, reiterated an Outperform rating and a $160 target, signaling confidence that prediction markets and derivatives can support further growth. ^[34]

How analysts are framing it

Broadly, the narrative splits in two camps:

Bullish view:
- Robinhood is morphing into a multi‑rail financial platform: S&P 500 member, profitable, expanding globally, with crypto, tokenization, and prediction markets as layered growth engines.
- October metrics and Q3 results show growth that justifies a premium multiple — at least for now. ^[35]
Cautious view:
- Valuation is rich versus peers, even after a recent pullback from October’s all‑time high near $153.
- A stock trading at 40–60× earnings in a capital‑markets business is essentially a bet on continued hyper‑growth and benign regulation, not just normal performance. ^[36]

In other words: HOOD isn’t cheap; it’s a high‑growth, high‑expectations story.

The big risks: regulation, cycles, execution

The story is exciting, but it’s not risk‑free. A few major pressure points keep showing up across research and coverage.

1. Regulatory risk (especially around PFOF and prediction markets)

Payment for order flow (PFOF): Robinhood’s core U.S. brokerage model still leans heavily on PFOF, a practice that has attracted repeated scrutiny from the SEC and other regulators. The firm has already paid tens of millions of dollars in fines over best‑execution and customer‑communication issues in recent years. ^[37]
Event contracts & betting optics: Prediction markets blur the line between investing and gambling. Even with CFTC oversight, the political risk is obvious: a future crackdown on certain election or sports‑related contracts could hit a line of business that is currently growing extremely fast. ^[38]

Given how central prediction markets are becoming to Robinhood’s revenue story, regulatory surprises here would matter a lot.

2. Market‑cycle risk

Trading‑heavy firms are levered to market sentiment:

Robinhood’s volumes in stocks, options and crypto all spike when markets are strong and volatility is high, as seen in the October figures. ^[39]
TradingKey and other analysts explicitly warn that Robinhood’s performance is tightly linked to both equity and crypto bull markets; a prolonged downturn could compress both transaction‑based revenues and user engagement. ^[40]

If 2025’s boom gives way to a risk‑off 2026, HOOD’s earnings could prove more cyclical than the multiple suggests.

3. Competitive pressure

Robinhood is fighting on several fronts at once:

Traditional brokers: Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Interactive Brokers and others still hold deeper relationships with higher‑net‑worth investors and more sophisticated traders. ^[41]
Crypto & tokenization: Coinbase, Binance and a growing list of tokenization‑first firms are pursuing the same customers that Robinhood is trying to win in Europe and on‑chain. ^[42]
Prediction markets: Kalshi, Polymarket and possibly Coinbase’s upcoming prediction‑market product all compete on fees, liquidity and product design. ^[43]

Owning MIAXdx / LedgerX gives Robinhood better tools, but it doesn’t eliminate the competition.

4. Execution risk on new infrastructure

Launching:

a derivatives exchange,
a clearinghouse, and
a Layer‑2 blockchain

is a huge operational and regulatory lift.

Delays in CFTC approvals, technology setbacks, or issues with risk management could slow product launches or draw scrutiny at precisely the wrong time. ^[44]

So what does all this mean for HOOD investors?

From a high level, the 2025 Robinhood story looks like this:

Core business: Now profitable, with rapidly growing trading volumes, margin balances and assets under custody. ^[45]
New engines: Prediction markets and tokenization (via stock tokens and an L2 chain) are being layered on top as new, fee‑rich verticals. ^[46]
Stock price: Up ~242% in 12 months and about 1,000% over three years, trading at a premium multiple that assumes continued hyper‑growth — but still below both its recent high near $153 and several bullish price targets in the $150–$160 range. ^[47]

Whether HOOD is “still a buy” after a 300% gain in 2025 is ultimately a risk‑tolerance and time‑horizon question, not something any single article can answer for you.

What can be said with some confidence is:

Robinhood is no longer just “the meme stock app.”
It’s becoming a hybrid of broker, exchange operator and crypto/tokenization platform, with prediction markets at the center of its current growth story.
The upside case hinges on management executing that transformation and regulators allowing the new businesses to flourish.

This article is for information and analysis only, not investment advice. Anyone considering HOOD should weigh the potential of a financial‑super‑app narrative against the very real risks of regulation, competition and market cycles — and stress‑test what happens to the thesis if trading volumes or crypto enthusiasm cool off.

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