Rheinmetall Stock Hit by Peace-Plan Jitters Despite Record Backlog: Key Takeaways for Investors (28

As of the last trading session on Friday, 28 November 2025, Rheinmetall’s German-listed shares (Xetra: RHM) closed at €1,480.50, down 2.21% on the day and roughly 18% below their mid‑November intramonth high of about €1,804.50. Over the past year, however, the stock is still up around 138%, with a 52‑week range between roughly €593 and €2,008. ^[1]

On Saturday, 29 November 2025, markets are closed, but the news flow around Rheinmetall stock is intense. The dominant story: peace-plan anxiety around the Ukraine war is colliding with record defence demand and fresh contracts, creating a sharp tug‑of‑war in the share price.

Rheinmetall share price at the end of November 2025

From a pure price perspective, Rheinmetall stock looks like this going into the last days of November:

Close on 28 November 2025: €1,480.50
Day’s trading range (28 Nov): €1,474 – €1,523
Daily change (28 Nov): –2.21%
Peak high in November: ~€1,804.50 on 18 November
Drawdown from that high: about 18%
Distance from 52‑week high (~€2,008): about 26%
12‑month performance: +~138% ^[2]

Fundamentally, Rheinmetall is now a €68 billion market‑cap giant with a trailing P/E close to 80, price‑to‑sales near 6, price‑to‑book around 14, and a modest dividend yield of about 0.55% (annual dividend ~€8.10 per share). ^[3]

That combination — huge multi‑year price gains, premium valuation multiples, and extreme sensitivity to geopolitics — sets the scene for the news of 28–29 November 2025.

28–29 November 2025: what’s moving Rheinmetall stock right now?

1. “Peace fears”: Ukraine framework and a 28‑point plan

The sell‑off in Rheinmetall and other European defence stocks did not start on Friday alone. Throughout November, the sector has been hit by headlines suggesting real progress in U.S.- and EU‑backed peace initiatives for Ukraine:

On 19 November, Reuters reported that European aerospace and defence stocks fell 4–7% as traders reacted to a report of a potential U.S.‑brokered framework to end the Russia‑Ukraine war. Rheinmetall was among the biggest losers on the day. ^[4]
Earlier and later in the month, reports described an evolving 28‑point peace plan and “refined peace framework”, with Rheinmetall, Renk and HENSOLDT sometimes dropping 5–7% in a single session as traders repriced war‑related spending assumptions. ^[5]

By the time we reach 28–29 November, German‑language financial media are openly talking about “Friedensangst” (peace fear) in Rheinmetall stock:

Boerse Express notes that, despite a record order backlog, the Rheinmetall share price is under heavy pressure because peace talks in Ukraine are spooking investors. ^[6]
Wallstreet‑Online’s community recap, “wO Community Rückblick: wO User zu Rheinmetall Crash: ‘Kursziel 1000€ – Der Frieden naht, zum Glück’”, highlights how some retail traders are suddenly talking about a crash and even price targets around €1,000 if a peace deal sticks. ^[7]
Another Wallstreet‑Online feature, “SAP, Siemens, Rheinmetall – der große Check”, points out that Rheinmetall is among the DAX underperformers in November, with a double‑digit percentage decline, even though the broader index has held up reasonably well. ^[8]

In short: the market is testing how much of Rheinmetall’s valuation is “war premium”. Any sign of a durable peace framework triggers profit‑taking in a stock that has risen more than 2,000% since the start of the Ukraine war. ^[9]

2. Fresh contracts and German defence spending still support the bull case

The irony for Rheinmetall is that fundamental news on 28 November is actually quite positive for long‑term defence demand.

Germany’s €2.9 billion defence package

On 28 November, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that Germany is poised to approve around €2.9 billion (about $3.36 billion) in defence spending across 11 procurement contracts, as part of its ongoing post‑“Zeitenwende” defence surge. ^[10]

While final allocations are not public, multiple reports say Rheinmetall is among the expected winners, alongside other domestic players such as Mercedes‑Benz and weapons manufacturers like Heckler & Koch and Quantum Systems. ^[11]

This package covers drones, rifles, missiles and other systems — the exact areas where Rheinmetall has been investing heavily in capacity and R&D.

Denmark’s logistics truck deal: up to 1,000 vehicles

Also around 27–28 November, Rheinmetall MAN Military Vehicles announced a framework agreement with Denmarkfor the delivery of up to 1,000 HX and TG military logistics trucks, with an initial call‑off of more than 100 vehicles. ^[12]

The first tranche is described as a double‑digit million‑euro order.
The framework is structured so further orders can be called off as the Danish armed forces roll out their modernisation program.

For Rheinmetall’s Vehicle Systems division, this slots neatly into an already busy pipeline of logistics and tactical vehicle programmes across Europe.

A multi‑decade rearmament cycle

Stepping back, the current pullback in Rheinmetall shares is happening against the backdrop of a historic European rearmament:

In a long feature on 29 November, The Irish Times describes how Rheinmetall has become the main corporate beneficiary of Germany’s Zeitenwende, noting that under CEO Armin Papperger the shares climbed from just over €90 pre‑war to well above €1,500 as Berlin effectively wrote a “blank cheque” for defence capabilities. ^[13]
Other defence analysis outlets point to broader programmes where Germany may spend tens of billions of euros on heavy armoured vehicles and Skynex air defence systems — with Rheinmetall potentially capturing around €22 billion of that over time. ^[14]

The key message from 28–29 November news: Peace headlines are hitting the stock in the short term, but the order pipeline for NATO rearmament is still enormous.

Q3 2025 numbers: record backlog and confirmed guidance

Rheinmetall’s own Q3 2025 report, released earlier in November and still heavily cited in current coverage, shows why many analysts are reluctant to turn bearish despite the latest correction:

Group sales (first nine months 2025): €7.5 billion, up 20% year‑on‑year
Defence sales growth: about 28%
Operating result: €835 million, +18% YoY
Group operating margin: 11.1%
Defence operating result: €825 million; margin 13.6%
Backlog (“Rheinmetall Backlog”): €64 billion, a new record
Operating free cash flow: –€813 million, weighed down by heavy capex, inventory build‑up and delayed German orders
2025 outlook: guidance for 25–30% sales growth and an operating margin around 15.5% reaffirmed ^[15]

The company highlights multiple big drivers behind these numbers:

Ammunition and weapon systems orders for NATO states and Ukraine
Expansion of artillery capacity (including a new “Niedersachsen” plant in Germany)
New plants in Lithuania, Bulgaria and other European countries to bolster NATO’s industrial base ^[16]

In other words, Rheinmetall is still behaving like a classic high‑growth industrial: investing heavily, burning cash near term, but stacking up years of future revenue.

How expensive is Rheinmetall stock after the pullback?

Valuation is a major theme in late‑November commentary:

Lightyear’s data show a P/E of around 80, price‑to‑sales near 6, price‑to‑book around 14, and extremely strong multi‑year growth in revenue and EPS. ^[17]
Simply Wall St notes that Rheinmetall is still up about 138% over the past year, even after dropping roughly 18% in the past month, and flags a P/E around 76–77x, well above the aerospace & defence industry average of roughly 31x. ^[18]

Interestingly, not all valuation work points in the same direction:

Some narrative-based models (highlighted in the Simply Wall St piece) argue Rheinmetall could be dramatically undervalued if CEO Armin Papperger’s ambition of 450% order growth by 2030 plays out, implying theoretical future values far above today’s price. ^[19]
More conservative analysts, such as those cited by Morningstar and other research providers, stress that recent earnings per share have missed consensus because of order timing, and that the share price already discounts a lot of future good news. ^[20]

The late‑November news coverage essentially boils down to this question:

Is Rheinmetall still a high‑growth defence compounder temporarily hit by peace headlines — or is it a richly priced “war trade” finally colliding with reality?

Investor sentiment on 28–29 November: from euphoria to whiplash

If you read through German‑language market commentary for 28–29 November, you see a sharp sentiment split:

Pieces like “Rheinmetall-Aktie: Friedensangst!” (Boerse Express) talk about significant price declines driven purely by the news flow around peace talks, even while reminding readers of the €64 billion backlog and bullish analyst targets. ^[21]
Articles such as “Rheinmetall-Aktie: Super-Meldung!” and “Unfassbare Wende!” chronicle rapid intraday swings — small recoveries one day, further drops the next — and emphasise how often the stock fails to hold the €1,500 level, reinforcing the feeling of a broken short‑term uptrend. ^[22]
Community recaps on Wallstreet‑Online highlight emotional comments: some traders calling the move a long‑overdue correction after a parabolic run, others insisting that “as long as Europe rearms, Rheinmetall will be fine.” ^[23]

At the same time, broader DAX and European equity commentary for the week focuses on hopes of a year‑end rally powered by easier central‑bank policy and Trump‑era geopolitical deals — with Rheinmetall frequently name‑checked as a loser of peace but a winner of long‑term defence budgets. ^[24]

Key risks and opportunities for Rheinmetall stock after the latest headlines

Putting the 28–29 November news together, here are the main drivers investors are focusing on:

Upside drivers

Record and growing backlog
A €64 billion backlog provides multi‑year revenue visibility, especially in ammunition, vehicles and air defence. That backlog has grown sharply over the past year and could expand further if Germany’s planned mega‑programmes (tanks, Boxers, Skynex, naval assets) all move ahead on schedule. ^[25]
New contracts and framework agreements
The Danish truck deal and the expected share of Germany’s €2.9 billion procurement package show that, even as markets obsess over peace talks, defence ministries are still signing cheques. ^[26]
Industrial moat
Rheinmetall’s heavy investment in artillery plants, ammunition lines and vehicle production across Europe makes it one of the few firms capable of delivering NATO‑scale volumes. That industrial footprint is hard to replicate quickly, giving the company a structural advantage even in a “cold peace” scenario. ^[27]

Downside and volatility drivers

Peace‑plan sensitivity
News on ceasefire frameworks, U.S.‑Ukraine talks, or European attempts to de‑escalate can prompt sudden, double‑digit drops in Rheinmetall and peers — regardless of the long‑term need to replenish arsenals. This is the central story of the week. ^[28]
Valuation risk
A P/E near 80 and rich multiples versus the sector leave little room for disappointment. Any delay in contract awards, budget disputes in Berlin, or margin pressure from ramp‑up costs could trigger further derating. ^[29]
Political and budget uncertainty
Q3 numbers already reflect delayed order placements after Germany’s elections and budget wrangling. If those delays extend, the growth story could look lumpier than bulls expect, even with a large backlog. ^[30]
Execution and cash‑flow strain
Free cash flow is currently negative due to capacity expansion and inventory build‑up. Rheinmetall must prove it can turn its record backlog into sustainable, cash‑generative growth rather than just headline order wins. ^[31]

What 28–29 November mean for Rheinmetall investors

For anyone following Rheinmetall stock into the last month of 2025, the current news flow suggests a simple but uncomfortable reality:

Short‑term: The share price is a leveraged bet on Ukraine peace headlines and broader geopolitics. A single rumour about a new framework can move the stock by several percent in a day.
Medium‑term: Germany and other NATO members are still locked into a multi‑year rearmament cycle, with Rheinmetall at the centre of artillery, ammunition, vehicle and air‑defence programmes.
Valuation: After a massive multi‑year rally, Rheinmetall now trades on premium multiples that assume the company can execute flawlessly on this rearmament story — and that defence budgets do not roll over too quickly if peace appears more durable.

For prospective or existing investors, that combination means high potential rewards but equally high volatility. Position sizing, time horizon, and tolerance for political risk matter as much as spreadsheet valuation models.

Nothing in this article is personalised investment advice. Anyone considering buying or selling Rheinmetall shares should carefully assess their own financial situation, risk tolerance, and, ideally, consult a qualified adviser.

if you invested $100 in RHEINMETAL in 1999 🪖☠️✅ #rheinmetall #investments #military #stocks