Amsterdam‑based Nebius Group N.V. (Nasdaq: NBIS) is back in focus on Saturday, November 29, 2025, after a wild month in which the AI‑infrastructure stock slid roughly 30% from its recent peak but then rallied about 14% this week as dip‑buyers moved back in. [1]
Nebius shares closed Friday at $94.87, up 0.19% on the day, leaving the stock well below its 52‑week high of $141.10 but dramatically above its 12‑month low of $18.31. That puts Nebius up roughly 240%+ year‑to‑date, with a market value in the mid‑$20 billion range. [2]
Today, a fresh batch of commentary from The Motley Fool/Nasdaq, AInvest, GuruFocus, Seeking Alpha and MarketBeat is forcing investors to confront a central question: is Nebius the next great AI infrastructure winner, or a highly leveraged bet on an AI capex boom that might not last? [3]
Nebius stock today: price, performance and volatility
According to MarketBeat’s latest snapshot, Nebius opened Friday at $94.87, with a market cap of about $23.9 billion, a negative P/E ratio of ‑123.2 and a beta of 3.29, underlining just how volatile the name has become. The 50‑day moving average sits around $110.05, while the 200‑day average is nearer $75.27. [4]
Key trading stats highlighted today:
- 52‑week range: $18.31 – $141.10 [5]
- After a sharp pullback: shares are still about 30% below their high, but have rebounded around 14% this week, according to analysis from The Motley Fool published via Nasdaq. [6]
- YTD performance: Nebius has “rocketed 242% in 2025” on the back of the AI infrastructure boom, estimates 24/7 Wall St. [7]
That mix of explosive upside, deep drawdowns and high beta is exactly why NBIS is now getting wall‑to‑wall coverage from both bullish and cautious analysts.
All the major Nebius stock news dated November 29, 2025
Several substantial pieces on Nebius were published today. Here’s what they say, and what actually changed for the stock.
1. “Why Nebius Stock Rallied This Week” – The Motley Fool / Nasdaq
Howard Smith, writing for The Motley Fool and syndicated on Nasdaq, points out that Nebius has become one of the AI stocks investors “piled into” over the last six months, with shares up about 140% over that stretch but still roughly 30% below recent highs. [8]
Key points from that piece:
- 14% weekly rally: after a steep AI‑infrastructure sell‑off, NBIS bounced 14% this week as buyers returned. [9]
- Circular financing worries: the article flags concerns that some AI data‑center growth may be financed through “circular” structures – for example, hardware vendors investing in infrastructure providers who then use that capital to buy the vendor’s GPUs. [10]
- Meta contract as a flash point: a $3 billion, five‑year AI infrastructure commitment from Meta Platforms is highlighted as one of the headline deals that pulled Nebius out of obscurity and helped spark both the run‑up and the debate over how sustainable the spending really is. [11]
The takeaway: the rally this week is less about new information and more about sentiment flipping back in favor of AI infrastructure, after investors briefly questioned whether the spending boom had gone too far.
2. AInvest: “Why Nebius Stock Rallied: Partnership Impact and Cash Flow Considerations”
AInvest’s AI‑assisted note, published mid‑day Saturday, frames the same move through a more quantitative lens: [12]
- The immediate catalyst is again the $3 billion, five‑year Meta AI infrastructure deal, which the article says “signals institutional confidence” in Nebius’s platform. [13]
- It highlights the Nebius Token Factory, launched in November 2025, which early adopters reportedly used to cut AI inference costs by 26x, and the AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether” platform, which the company says now carries HIPAA and ISO 27001 certifications for regulated markets. [14]
- On the flip side, AInvest emphasises that Nebius is leaning on an at‑the‑market (ATM) equity program for up to 25 million shares, raising dilution concerns as it continues to fund its build‑out. [15]
In short: the article argues that the same partnerships driving the rally also lock Nebius into years of heavy capex and funding needs, keeping the risk profile elevated.
3. GuruFocus / Investing.com: “Nebius Is Running Out of Runway — or About to Take Off”
A longform piece syndicated via Investing.com and authored by GuruFocus leans heavily into the “big risk, big reward” narrative. [16]
Highlights:
- Nebius is portrayed as the invisible backbone of AI, operating high‑performance data centers filled with NVIDIA H100 and Blackwell GPUs to serve training and inference workloads. [17]
- The article zeroes in on Nebius’s five‑year, $17.4 billion AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft, which can grow to $19.4 billion with options, positioning Nebius as a core supplier of Microsoft’s AI compute pipeline from its new Vineland, New Jersey data center. [18]
- GuruFocus boils the investment case down to three levers: cost of capital, GPU utilization and realised pricing. If Nebius can keep capital cheap and “run its GPUs hot,” the model works; if financing costs rise or utilization lags, the story breaks. [19]
The tone is analytically bullish but explicitly warns that execution missteps on highly leveraged growth could quickly flip the narrative.
4. Seeking Alpha: “Nebius: This Decline Might Be a Lifetime Opportunity”
A new Seeking Alpha opinion piece published today (available to subscribers) argues that the recent 30% drawdown might be a “lifetime opportunity” in NBIS: [20]
- It leans on Q3 numbers showing 355% year‑over‑year revenue growth to $146.1 million and gross margins above 70%, backed by multi‑year deals with Microsoft and Meta. [21]
- The author points out that Nebius has “nearly sold out” its GPU capacity, implying strong pricing power as new clusters come online. [22]
- At the same time, the piece acknowledges the stock’s premium valuation and dependence on ongoing AI capex but ultimately assigns NBIS a Buy rating. [23]
Because this is an opinion/analysis article rather than hard news, readers should treat it as one investor’s thesis, not a consensus forecast.
5. AInvest: “Is the AI Infrastructure Boom Sustainable? Analyzing Nebius’ Strategic Position and Growth Potential”
A second AInvest feature today tackles the bigger question: can Nebius’s business model hold up under the weight of its own expansion? [24]
Key data points from that analysis (sourced from Nebius’s filings and earnings materials):
- Q3 2025 revenue: $146.1 million, up 355% year‑over‑year, fuelled by hyperscaler demand and AI compute contracts. [25]
- Net loss: Nebius posted a $119.6 million net loss from continuing operations in Q3, driven in large part by $99 million of depreciation and amortization on its rapidly growing asset base. [26]
- Balance sheet pressure: total debt has climbed to about $4.57 billion, mainly from $4.1 billion of convertible notes issued this year, while capital consumption reached roughly $450 million in the first nine months of 2025. [27]
- Analyst targets: AInvest cites an average Street price target of $144.71, implying about 52% upside from a mid‑$90 share price, and notes that Northland Securities has gone as high as $211 on NBIS. [28]
The piece concludes that Nebius sits at the heart of the AI infrastructure boom, but long‑term sustainability hinges on balancing rapid revenue growth with debt, depreciation and cash burn.
6. MarketBeat: New Institutional Buying and Updated Analyst Picture
MarketBeat’s “instant alert” today revealed that Pursue Wealth Partners LLC has initiated a new position in Nebius, adding to a list of hedge funds and asset managers that grew stakes in the second quarter. In total, about 21.9% of outstanding shares are now held by institutional investors, according to the article. [29]
The same note summarises current Street sentiment:
- Ratings skew to Buy, with two Strong Buy, seven Buy and two Hold calls.
- The average price target sits around $144.71, based on MarketBeat’s compilation. [30]
That backdrop helps explain why every dip in NBIS so far has attracted at least some “buy the pullback” coverage.
7. 24/7 Wall St.: Nebius as One of “3 Stocks Up 170% That Still Have More Explosive Growth Ahead”
Rich Duprey at 24/7 Wall St. includes Nebius in a list of high‑flyers that analysts still see upside in, despite eye‑watering year‑to‑date gains. [31]
The article notes that:
- Nebius shares are up about 242% in 2025, driven by surging demand for GPU clusters.
- Q3 revenue of $146.1 million (up 355% YoY) is underpinned by the Microsoft and Meta contracts and expansion of data centers in Finland and Kansas City, with ambitions to hit $7–9 billion in annualised run‑rate revenue by late 2026. [32]
- The piece cites a consensus 12‑month price target of $159, suggesting ~68% upside from a recent ~$95 close – a little higher than MarketBeat’s average, likely reflecting a different sample of analyst estimates. [33]
Here again, the tone is optimistic but acknowledges that funding needs and volatility make the stock unsuitable for the faint‑hearted.
The fundamentals behind the headlines: Q3 2025 earnings
All of today’s commentary sits on top of Nebius’s Q3 2025 earnings, released on November 11: [34]
- Revenue: $146.1 million (Q3 2025), up from $32.1 million a year earlier – a 355% year‑over‑year increase.
- Operating costs and expenses: climbed to $276.3 million, reflecting huge investment in infrastructure, R&D and sales.
- Depreciation and amortisation: surged to $99 million in the quarter as new data centers and hardware hit the books.
- Net loss from continuing operations: widened to $119.6 million, vs. a loss of $43.6 million in Q3 2024.
- Adjusted metrics: while different sources slice the non‑GAAP numbers slightly differently, several note that adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed materially compared with earlier periods, suggesting improving unit economics even as GAAP losses remain large. [35]
Reuters also highlighted that Nebius’s annualised recurring revenue (ARR) has reached roughly $551 million, and management is targeting $7–9 billion ARR by the end of 2026, a massive scale‑up from today’s base. [36]
Mega‑deals with Microsoft and Meta
Nebius’s entire investment case now revolves around two landmark hyperscaler contracts:
- Microsoft AI infrastructure deal
- A five‑year, $17.4 billion contract for Nebius to provide dedicated GPU infrastructure to Microsoft, primarily from the new Vineland, New Jersey data center. [37]
- Optional capacity could push the total value to $19.4 billion. [38]
- Commentary from Forbes and industry press describes this as a “massive leap” for so‑called AI “neoclouds,” positioning Nebius as a key alternative to the big three hyperscalers. [39]
- Meta Platforms AI infrastructure deal
- A $3 billion, five‑year agreement for Nebius to supply high‑performance AI infrastructure, announced alongside Q3 results. [40]
- Demand was strong enough that Nebius reportedly had to cap Meta’s contract based on available capacity, underlining how tight GPU supply remains.
- The deal is expected to ramp through 2026 as Nebius brings more clusters online. [41]
These contracts provide multi‑year revenue visibility but also effectively force Nebius to keep spending heavily on land, power and GPUs to meet long‑dated obligations.
Capital spending, debt and the September financing blitz
To actually deliver on those mega‑deals, Nebius has embarked on one of the most aggressive capex programs in the AI infrastructure space.
From GuruFocus’s recent deep‑dive and Nebius’s own filings:
- Nebius used about $450 million of capital in the first nine months of 2025 and raised its 2025 capex target from $2.0 billion to $5.0 billion. [42]
- Management aims to grow connected power from roughly 220 megawatts by the end of 2025 to 800 megawatts–1 gigawatt by the end of 2026, putting it closer to rival AI infrastructure providers like CoreWeave. [43]
To fund that expansion, Nebius executed a large equity and debt package in September 2025:
- $1 billion public offering of Class A ordinary shares at $92.50 per share, plus an underwriters’ option for another $150 million. [44]
- $2.75 billion in convertible senior notes, split between 1.0% notes due 2030 and 2.75% notes due 2032, with an option to upsize by more than $400 million. [45]
- Nebius projected total net proceeds of around $979.5 million from the share sale and $2.69–3.10 billion from the notes, for aggregate gross proceeds of roughly $4.2 billion, as confirmed in a separate company release. [46]
BusinessWire financials show that as of September 30, 2025, Nebius had:
- Cash and cash equivalents: roughly $4.8 billion
- Total assets: around $10.1 billion
- Total liabilities: about $5.3 billion, including $4.09 billion of non‑current debt. [47]
That balance sheet provides a substantial cushion, but today’s commentaries are united on one point: if capital markets were to turn hostile, Nebius’s expansion plans could quickly become constrained. [48]
What analysts are saying about Nebius stock
Across today’s coverage and recent notes, a few themes on valuation and ratings emerge:
- Consensus rating: Most sources describe Nebius as a Buy‑rated stock, with a small number of Strong Buy ratings and a couple of Holds. [49]
- Average price target:
- Upside drivers cited by bulls:
- 355% revenue growth and gross margins above 70% in Q3. [52]
- Near‑sold‑out capacity and a multi‑year backlog anchored by Microsoft and Meta. [53]
- A vertically integrated AI cloud platform with data centers in Europe and North America, pitched as a cost‑effective alternative to hyperscalers for GPU‑heavy workloads. [54]
On the other side, valuation metrics like the negative triple‑digit P/E, high sales multiple and heavy leverage are exactly why several commentators stress that Nebius is not priced like a sleepy utility, but like an aggressively financed growth story that has to keep delivering flawless execution. [55]
Key opportunities and risks for NBIS investors
Pulling together today’s news and recent filings, the Nebius story on November 29, 2025 looks roughly like this:
Opportunities
- Structural AI demand: Every major advancement in AI still requires more compute; Nebius is positioned as one of the key “picks and shovels” suppliers of that capacity. [56]
- Mega‑contracts with blue‑chip clients: Long‑duration deals with Microsoft and Meta provide multi‑year, contracted revenue visibility and strong branding for a still‑young public company. [57]
- Rapid scale and strong margins: Q3 showed triple‑digit revenue growth and 70%+ gross margins, suggesting attractive unit economics once depreciation and interest stop ballooning. [58]
Risks
- Capital intensity & leverage: With capex targeted at $5 billion this year and total debt above $4.5 billion, Nebius is highly sensitive to interest rates, credit conditions and equity market appetite. [59]
- Execution risk: Large, fixed commitments to hyperscalers mean Nebius must bring new capacity online on time, fill it with paying workloads and stay within budget, or risk renegotiations and margin compression. [60]
- Regulatory and governance headwinds: As Nebius pushes Aether and Token Factory into healthcare and finance, compliance with frameworks like HIPAA, ISO 27001, NIS2 and DORA becomes mission‑critical. Any missteps could slow adoption or trigger costly remediation. [61]
- Sector froth & “circular financing” concerns: Skeptics worry that parts of the AI build‑out rely on increasingly complex financing arrangements and optimistic return assumptions. If big customers fail to see expected ROI, long‑term contracts could be scaled back or repriced. [62]
Bottom line on Nebius stock as of November 29, 2025
On today’s news flow alone, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) remains one of the most hotly debated AI infrastructure stocks on the market. The latest batch of articles paints a consistent picture:
- Fundamentals remain strong: triple‑digit growth, mega‑deals with Microsoft and Meta, and a growing global footprint of AI‑optimized data centers. [63]
- Financial risk is elevated: billions in new debt and equity, aggressive capex and ongoing losses mean the company is still firmly in “build‑out mode,” not yet in cash‑cow territory. [64]
- Sentiment is volatile: even after a 242% year‑to‑date run, the stock can fall 30% in a few weeks and rebound 14% in a few days, depending on how investors feel about the AI capex cycle. [65]
For now, Wall Street still largely views Nebius as a high‑beta way to play the AI infrastructure boom, with price targets that, on average, sit well above the current share price. Whether those targets prove conservative or wildly optimistic will depend on what Nebius does over the next 18–24 months: how quickly it can fill new capacity, manage its balance sheet and turn today’s mega‑deals into tomorrow’s free cash flow.
References
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