Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Near Record Highs: Is the $500 Billion Healthcare Giant Still a Buy in 2025?

Updated: November 30, 2025

Johnson & Johnson stock has quietly turned into one of 2025’s big winners. After years of trading like a sleepy defensive name, JNJ has gone on an 11‑ to 13‑day winning streak, pushed its market capitalization to roughly $500 billion, and logged one of its strongest years since the mid‑1990s. ^[1]

As of late November, Johnson & Johnson shares recently changed hands around $206–$208, not far from a fresh all‑time high close of $207.56 on November 26. That price leaves the stock up about 45% year‑to‑date, handily beating the S&P 500’s mid‑teens gain and reversing a two‑year stretch of underperformance. ^[2]

Behind the move is a classic J&J cocktail: solid earnings, a broadened drug pipeline, a hefty dividend, a new spin‑off plan—and a few very real risks, from talc litigation to a high‑profile Alzheimer’s setback.

JNJ Stock in Late 2025: A Defensive Giant in Rally Mode

On November 26, Johnson & Johnson briefly joined the market’s mega‑cap elite when its market value pushed above $500 billion for the first time, thanks in part to that record closing price near $207.56. ^[3]

A Trefis analysis estimates that: ^[4]

JNJ has generated about 45% total return in 2025,
nearly $44 billion of value was added over just 11 straight up sessions, and
its year‑to‑date gain dwarfs the ~14% return from the S&P 500.

At the same time, valuation hasn’t gone completely off the rails. Data from FullRatio show that at a late‑November share price of about $206.92, J&J trades at 19.8× trailing earnings, below the Healthcare sector’s roughly 25× average and close to its own three‑year P/E norm. ^[5]

In other words: JNJ now behaves more like a growth‑tilted compounder than a bond proxy—but without a nosebleed multiple.

Earnings and Outlook: Q3 2025 Beat Underpins the Stock

The recent rally has fundamentals underneath it. In Q3 2025, Johnson & Johnson: ^[6]

Reported sales of $23.99 billion, ahead of Wall Street expectations.
Grew pharmaceutical (“Innovative Medicine”) revenue by 6.8% to about $15.6 billion.
Grew MedTech revenue by 6.8% to roughly $8.4 billion.
Delivered adjusted EPS of $2.80, beating consensus estimates.
Raised full‑year 2025 revenue guidance to about $93.5–$93.9 billion and signaled >5% revenue growth in 2026.

Management highlighted resilience despite the U.S. loss of exclusivity for immunology blockbuster Stelara and hits from Medicare Part D redesign. Recent analysis notes that the Innovative Medicine segment still managed low‑single‑digit organic growth over the first nine months of 2025, with momentum coming from newer therapies like Darzalex, Erleada, Tremfya, Carvykti, Tecvayli, Talvey, Rybrevant and Spravato. ^[7]

The upshot for investors: J&J isn’t just defending its base; it’s re‑accelerating growth from newer franchises even as legacy drugs face generic erosion.

Pipeline Firepower: Oncology, Neuroscience and Autoimmune Bets

A big part of Wall Street’s renewed enthusiasm is the sense that J&J has options—a diversified portfolio of potential blockbusters rather than dependence on a single mega‑drug.

Inlexzo: Re‑imagining Bladder Cancer Treatment

In September 2025, the FDA approved INLEXZO (gemcitabine intravesical system, previously TAR‑200) for adults with BCG‑unresponsive non‑muscle invasive bladder cancer with carcinoma in situ, with or without papillary tumors. ^[8]

Unlike standard chemotherapy infusions, INLEXZO is a drug‑eluting intravesical system that sits in the bladder and slowly releases gemcitabine, offering an alternative to immediate bladder‑removal surgery for patients who have exhausted BCG therapy or are unwilling/unfit for radical cystectomy. Early‑stage SunRISe‑4 data released in October showed no detectable cancer before surgery in about 38% of patients receiving an INLEXZO‑based combination, pointing to meaningful disease control in a high‑risk group. ^[9]

Imaavy (Nipocalimab): A “Pipeline‑in‑a‑Drug” for Autoimmune Disease

In April 2025, J&J won FDA approval for Imaavy (nipocalimab), the first and only FcRn blocker cleared in the U.S. for generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) in adults and pediatric patients aged 12 and older who are antibody‑positive. ^[10]

The drug rapidly reduces pathogenic IgG antibodies and showed long‑lasting disease control in pivotal studies, helping to justify its positioning as a potential future blockbuster in gMG and other antibody‑driven diseases. Analysts and J&J itself frame nipocalimab as a “pipeline‑in‑a‑product” with life‑cycle potential well beyond a single indication. ^[11]

Darzalex Faspro: Earlier Intervention in Multiple Myeloma

Also on November 6, 2025, the FDA approved Darzalex Faspro (subcutaneous daratumumab + hyaluronidase) as the first and only treatment for high‑risk smoldering multiple myeloma (HR‑SMM). ^[12]

The Phase 3 AQUILA trial showed that Darzalex Faspro cut the risk of progression to active multiple myeloma or death by about 51% versus active monitoring, opening a new front in earlier disease interception. This expands an already massive Darzalex franchise and helps defend J&J’s position in a myeloma market that competitors like GSK are aggressively targeting. ^[13]

Caplyta: Expanding into Mainstream Depression

The same day, J&J announced FDA approval of Caplyta (lumateperone) as an adjunctive treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD) in adults. ^[14]

Caplyta, gained through J&J’s $14.6 billion acquisition of Intra‑Cellular Therapies in January 2025, is now approved for four indications (schizophrenia, bipolar depression, and adjunctive use in MDD). In pivotal MDD studies, adding Caplyta to standard antidepressants produced larger reductions in depression scores than previous antipsychotics approved for this setting, suggesting a chance to claim multi‑billion‑dollar peak sales if safety and real‑world efficacy hold up. ^[15]

Halda Therapeutics Deal: A $3.05 Billion Bet on “RIPTAC” Oncology

On November 17, J&J agreed to acquire Halda Therapeutics for $3.05 billion in cash, adding a portfolio of oral “RIPTAC” cancer drugs and further signaling its ambitions to reach $50 billion in oncology sales by 2030. ^[16]

Halda’s lead candidate, HLD‑0915, targets prostate cancer and already carries FDA fast‑track status. Early Phase I/II data showed encouraging tumor responses, and the same platform is being applied to hormone receptor‑positive breast cancer and lung cancer. J&J executives describe the deal as a mid‑ and long‑term growth catalyst that deepens its solid‑tumor pipeline. ^[17]

More broadly, J&J now believes around 10 new products and late‑stage candidates each have >$5 billion peak sales potential, including Talvey, Tecvayli, Imaavy, Caplyta, Inlexzo, Rybrevant plus Lazcluze, and the oral psoriasis candidate icotrokinra. ^[18]

A High‑Profile Setback: Alzheimer’s Drug Posdinemab Fails

The pipeline story isn’t all good news. In late November, J&J announced that its anti‑tau antibody posdinemab failed a Phase 2b Alzheimer’s trial (Auτonomy). A scheduled data review showed the treatment did not meaningfully slow clinical decline versus placebo, prompting J&J to halt the study and effectively shut down what had been discussed internally as a potential $5‑billion‑plus opportunity. ^[19]

The failure also casts doubt on tau‑targeted Alzheimer’s therapies more generally, at least in their current form. J&J emphasized in its public statement that it remains committed to Alzheimer’s research, but investors will mark this down as a material strike against one of its higher‑risk, higher‑reward bets.

For shareholders, the lesson is classic pharma math: a broad pipeline increases the odds of wins, but individual assets—especially in Alzheimer’s—still carry high binary risk.

Structural Change: Spinning Off the Orthopedics Business

Parallel to the pipeline upgrades, J&J is reshaping its corporate structure. Alongside Q3 earnings, the company said it plans to separate its DePuy Synthes orthopedics franchise into a standalone, orthopedics‑focused company over the next 18–24 months. ^[20]

Orthopedics generated roughly $9.2 billion in 2024 sales, or about 10% of J&J’s total revenue, but has grown more slowly than higher‑margin segments like electrophysiology, cardiovascular devices, and surgical robotics. Management argues that carving out DePuy Synthes will: ^[21]

Sharpen the parent company’s focus on higher‑growth, higher‑innovation MedTech areas.
Give the new orthopedics company more freedom to optimize its own portfolio and capital allocation.

Investors have generally welcomed the move, viewing it as a continuation of J&J’s trend toward a purer Innovative Medicine + high‑tech MedTech story after its earlier Kenvue consumer‑health spin‑off.

Dividend, Balance Sheet and Valuation: Quality at a (Relative) Premium

For income‑oriented investors, J&J is still very much a dividend machine.

The board has declared a fourth‑quarter 2025 dividend of $1.30 per share, payable on December 9 to shareholders of record as of November 25. ^[22]
On an annualized basis, J&J is paying roughly $5.14 per share, giving a dividend yield around 2.5% at current prices—about 40% higher than the Healthcare sector’s average yield near 1.8%. ^[23]
The payout ratio is ~49%, leaving room for reinvestment and further hikes. ^[24]

The company also touts more than 60 consecutive years of dividend increases and notes that over the past five years, over 60% of free cash flow has been returned to shareholders, mostly through dividends and buybacks. ^[25]

On valuation, the numbers tell a “quality at a reasonable price” story rather than a true bargain: ^[26]

Trailing P/E ~19.8, below the sector average (~25.4) but above cheaper peers like Pfizer and Merck.
Market cap just under $500 billion, putting J&J among the world’s largest healthcare companies.
Some intrinsic‑value models (for example, Simply Wall St’s DCF work) still see double‑digit percentage upside even after the run, while others like Trefis now call the stock “fairly priced” following its winning streak.

Put bluntly: JNJ is no longer cheap, but it arguably still isn’t priced like a speculative growth story.

Litigation and Policy Overhang: Talc and Asbestos

The main non‑operational risk that continues to shadow Johnson & Johnson is talc‑related litigation.

Despite billions already paid in settlements, J&J still faces tens of thousands of claims alleging that its talc‑based baby powder caused cancer. Courts have rejected several attempts to bundle claims into a single large bankruptcy‑style settlement, including multi‑billion‑dollar proposals earlier in 2025, and individual jury verdicts continue to produce large awards in some jurisdictions. ^[27]

Regulatory developments haven’t necessarily reduced the headline risk. A recent Guardian investigation highlighted that the U.S. FDA, under the current Trump administration, is moving to withdraw a proposed rule that would have required routine asbestos testing in talc‑based cosmetics, a change critics say runs counter to public‑health goals. The article notes that talc contamination has been repeatedly found in cosmetics and recalls J&J’s 2020 decision to pull talc baby powder from the U.S. market amid rising lawsuits and pressure. ^[28]

For investors, talc remains a classic “known unknown”—hard to model precisely, but significant enough that it has historically warranted a discount to what J&J’s earnings power might otherwise command.

Flows and Sentiment: Institutions Shuffle, Commentators Turn Positive

Recent filings show a mix of institutional buying and trimming around JNJ’s rally: ^[29]

Groupama Asset Management disclosed a new purchase of 4,777 shares.
Level Four Advisory Services modestly increased its stake to about 68,500 shares, worth over $10 million.
The New York State Common Retirement Fund slightly reduced its position, though it still holds more than 3.1 million shares valued near $480 million.

Insider activity has been mixed: executive vice president Jennifer Taubert sold around 56,000 shares in early September at prices near $178, locking in some gains but retaining a substantial holding. ^[30]

On the commentary side, financial media personality Jim Cramer recently described himself as “particularly fond” of JNJ, citing its diversified earnings base and rising pipeline as attractive for investors looking for stability plus moderate growth. ^[31]

While individual opinions vary, the broad tone from Wall Street research over the last month has shifted from “value stock with litigation hair” to “defensive growth compounder”—with disagreement mainly about whether the stock has already priced that shift in.

Policy Backdrop: Drug Pricing Deals and On‑Shoring Push

JNJ’s 2025 rally hasn’t happened in a vacuum. The broader pharma sector has recovered as large drugmakers negotiate drug‑pricing agreements with the Trump administration, trading headline price cuts and increased U.S. manufacturing commitments for relief from new tariffs and better Medicare access. ^[32]

A recent sector piece highlighted that: ^[33]

Peers like Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have already struck deals tying lower list prices and domestic investment to tariff exemptions and reimbursement certainty.
J&J has announced plans to invest around $55 billion over four years to ensure medicines consumed in the U.S. are manufactured domestically, positioning itself as a likely participant in similar agreements.

If executed sensibly, these deals could reduce policy uncertainty around U.S. drug profits—historically one of the biggest structural risks for large pharma names.

Is Johnson & Johnson Stock Still a Buy After the Run?

Putting all the moving pieces together:

Bullish case highlights

Strong 2025 earnings beat and raised guidance, with management targeting >5% growth in 2026. ^[34]
A visibly strengthened pipeline: Imaavy, Inlexzo, Darzalex Faspro’s HR‑SMM indication, and Caplyta in MDD, plus the Halda acquisition and multiple oncology launches. ^[35]
A decades‑long dividend‑growth track record, ~2.5% yield, and a still‑moderate payout ratio. ^[36]
A balance sheet and business mix that still look defensive relative to the broader market, even as growth accelerates.

Key risks

Ongoing talc litigation with uncertain ultimate cost and reputational impact. ^[37]
Pipeline risk, exemplified by the posdinemab Alzheimer’s failure, and the inherently competitive nature of oncology and neurology markets. ^[38]
A valuation that is no longer “distressed”—any stumble on earnings, drug launches or litigation could compress today’s near‑market‑premium multiple. ^[39]

For long‑term investors, JNJ at the cusp of 2026 increasingly looks like a high‑quality core healthcare holding rather than a high‑beta trade. The current setup favors those who:

Want exposure to innovative medicines and MedTech but are wary of single‑drug risk.
Value dividend growth and balance‑sheet strength.
Are comfortable with headline noise around litigation and policy in exchange for durable cash flows.