As of Sunday, November 30, 2025, Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) heads into December with its stock trading around $168 per share, after a solid post‑Thanksgiving bounce and an eventful month of AI‑heavy announcements and deal progress. The latest close on Friday, November 28, was just under $168 on light volume, valuing the chip designer at roughly $180 billion. [1]
Year to date, Qualcomm shares are up only about 6% in 2025, far behind the Nasdaq Composite’s roughly 19% gain, and the stock remains more than 20% below its 52‑week high around $206 and about 27% below its June 2024 all‑time high near $231. [2]
Yet the narrative around QCOM looks very different than it did a year ago. A series of moves in data‑center AI, industrial computing and developer tools has pushed Qualcomm well beyond its old “smartphone modem” label—and those shifts are now central to how investors are valuing the stock.
Qualcomm stock today: price, performance and dividend profile
Share price and trading action
- Last close (Fri, Nov 28, 2025): roughly $168 per share, up about 1.7–1.8% on the day, with an intraday high around $168.19 in a shortened post‑Thanksgiving session. [3]
- Market capitalization: around $180 billion. [4]
- Volatility: QCOM’s beta is around 1.3–1.5, meaning it still tends to move more than the broader market. [5]
Relative performance
A recent performance breakdown shows:
- +6.3% year‑to‑date in 2025 vs +19.2% for the Nasdaq Composite.
- +2.8% over the past 12 months, versus roughly +21% for the Nasdaq over the same period.
- About 20.7% below its 52‑week high of $205.95, hit on October 27. [6]
In other words, Qualcomm is being rewarded for its AI pivot—but not with the kind of “AI mania” multiples seen in names like Nvidia or some cloud software peers.
Dividend and shareholder returns
For income‑oriented holders, Qualcomm still behaves like a mature cash generator:
- Quarterly dividend:$0.89 per share, or $3.56 annualized.
- Dividend yield: about 2.0–2.1% at current prices. [7]
- Qualcomm has a long record of combining dividends with sizeable share buybacks; in recent quarters it has routinely returned several billion dollars per quarter to shareholders through this mix. [8]
TradingView data puts the trailing P/E ratio near the mid‑teens on an adjusted (non‑GAAP) basis, with a higher P/E if one uses GAAP earnings distorted by a large tax charge (more on that below). Analysts often point to this valuation gap versus faster‑moving AI peers as part of the bull case. [9]
Earnings recap: a tax‑hit headline, stronger underlying fundamentals
On November 5, 2025, Qualcomm reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year 2025 (year ended September 28). [10]
Key numbers:
- Q4 revenue: about $11.27 billion, up roughly 10% year over year, and above Wall Street estimates around $10.8 billion. [11]
- Adjusted (non‑GAAP) EPS:$3.00, beating consensus estimates near $2.87–$2.88. [12]
- GAAP net income: a loss of about $3.1 billion, primarily due to a roughly $5.7 billion non‑cash tax charge tied to new U.S. tax legislation, even as operating metrics stayed solid. [13]
Within the core QCT (chip) segment, Barchart’s breakdown of the quarter highlights: [14]
- QCT revenue around $9.8 billion.
- Handset revenue up roughly 14% year over year, reflecting a rebound in premium smartphones.
- Automotive up about 17%.
- IoT up roughly 7%, as Qualcomm continues diversifying beyond phones.
On the conference call and in follow‑up coverage, management emphasized that non‑Apple revenue across segments grew about 18% for fiscal 2025, with combined Automotive and IoT revenue up more than 25% for the year—underscoring progress in newer businesses. [15]
Forward guidance: cautious on Samsung mix, upbeat on AI
For Q1 of fiscal 2026, Qualcomm guided to: [16]
- Revenue between $11.8 and $12.6 billion (midpoint $12.2 billion), above analyst expectations.
- Non‑GAAP EPS between $3.30 and $3.50, also ahead of Wall Street’s roughly $3.31 forecast.
However, Reuters noted that even with the beat, the stock traded lower in after‑hours on November 5 because of a key detail: Qualcomm expects its modem share at Samsung to drop to around 75% in the upcoming Galaxy S26 lineup, down from 100% in the current S25 series. [17]
At the same time, Qualcomm is in talks with at least one large AI computing “hyperscaler” to supply data‑center chips, further reinforcing its AI ambitions. [18]
AI200 & AI250: Qualcomm’s push into AI data centers
One of the biggest narrative shifts around QCOM in 2025 has been its entry into AI data‑center hardware.
On October 28, 2025, Qualcomm announced its AI200 and AI250 platforms—rack‑scale systems built specifically for AI inference, the phase where trained models run live workloads. [19]
Highlights from coverage and Qualcomm’s own materials:
- Two‑chip strategy:
- AI200 (shipping target: 2026) is a “first wave” inference system with up to 768 GB of LPDDR memory per card, prioritizing memory capacity and total cost of ownership over brute‑force peak performance. [20]
- AI250 (expected in 2027) adopts a near‑memory compute architecture that aims for more than 10x effective memory bandwidth, tackling one of the main bottlenecks in large language model deployments. [21]
- Rack‑scale design: Each rack is designed for roughly 160 kW of power with direct liquid cooling, linked via PCIe internally and Ethernet between racks—making the system modular from small deployments up to hyperscale AI clusters. [22]
- Economics over raw TFLOPs: Qualcomm is explicitly framing its advantage as “tokens per watt” and total cost of ownership, targeting operators who care more about energy bills and density than maximal benchmark scores. [23]
- First big customer: Saudi‑backed AI company Humain (often stylized “Humain” or “Humane/Humen” in coverage) has committed to deploy around 200 MW of Qualcomm AI systems starting in 2026, a deal analysts estimate could equate to roughly $2 billion in revenue over time. [24]
Wall Street’s reaction to the launch was immediate: reporting from AI‑focused outlets notes that QCOM jumped roughly 11–13% in a single session on the news, briefly trading above $200 as investors recalibrated Qualcomm’s AI potential. [25]
While Qualcomm still faces entrenched giants like Nvidia and AMD in the AI‑server market, analysts broadly see the AI200/AI250 roadmap as giving the company a credible seat at the AI‑infrastructure table, especially for power‑constrained inference workloads.
Dragonwing IQ‑X: industrial PCs and edge AI
In mid‑November, Qualcomm extended its AI reach further from the data center into factories and industrial PCs with the launch of the Dragonwing IQ‑X Series. [26]
Third‑party technical write‑ups describe Dragonwing IQ‑X as:
- Built on a 4 nm Qualcomm Oryon CPU, offering up to 12 high‑performance cores and around 45 TOPS of AI performance on the integrated NPU. [27]
- Rated for industrial temperature ranges from –40°C to 105°C, targeting rugged environments like smart factories, logistics hubs and energy infrastructure. [28]
- Compatible with COM module standards, making it easier for OEMs to plug into existing industrial designs.
- Supporting Windows 11 IoT Enterprise LTSC plus industrial frameworks such as CODESYS, EtherCAT and Qt, alongside common AI runtimes like ONNX and PyTorch via the Qualcomm AI Software Stack. [29]
Partners including Advantech, congatec, NEXCOM, Portwell, SECO and Tria are expected to ship Dragonwing‑based systems in the coming months, positioning Qualcomm as a new competitor to x86 players like Intel and AMD in industrial computing. [30]
Zacks and other analyst notes have framed Dragonwing IQ‑X as a way for Qualcomm to capture AI‑at‑the‑edge spending in smart manufacturing, potentially smoothing the cyclicality of its smartphone business over time. [31]
Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 and 8 Elite Gen 5: mobile AI remains a pillar
While data‑center and industrial AI are the new headlines, mobile still matters—both for profits and for Qualcomm’s AI story.
Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5: the flagship
Earlier this autumn, Qualcomm rolled out the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5, its latest flagship SoC for high‑end Android devices. The chip features: [32]
- A third‑generation Oryon CPU with dual prime cores up to about 4.6 GHz and performance cores around 3.6 GHz.
- An updated Adreno GPU promising roughly 23% higher gaming performance while cutting power use by around one‑fifth.
- A significantly faster Hexagon NPU, enabling richer on‑device generative AI and context‑aware assistants.
This part anchors Qualcomm’s presence in ultra‑premium Android phones going into 2026.
Snapdragon 8 Gen 5: “affordable flagship” AI chip
The more recent mobile story, though, is Snapdragon 8 Gen 5, officially unveiled in late November and aimed at the premium mid‑range / “affordable flagship” tier. [33]
According to Qualcomm’s partners and independent coverage:
- 8 Gen 5 is positioned just below 8 Elite, bringing many of the same AI tricks to cheaper devices.
- Performance claims include roughly 36% better CPU performance, around 11% faster graphics, and nearly 46% improved AI throughput versus older Snapdragon 8‑series chips, thanks in part to an upgraded Hexagon NPU and in‑house Oryon CPU cores. [34]
- The updated Sensing Hub adds an always‑listening, low‑power AI processor designed to wake up assistants such as Google’s Gemini when the phone senses a user is about to speak, combining motion, microphone and other sensor cues. [35]
On the commercial side:
- The OnePlus 15R, launching globally on December 17, 2025, will be the first handset to ship with Snapdragon 8 Gen 5, followed by models from Vivo, Motorola and iQOO. [36]
Together, 8 Elite Gen 5 and 8 Gen 5 are meant to keep Qualcomm at the center of Android’s on‑device AI transition, giving the company a way to monetize AI in both top‑tier and mid‑premium segments even as some OEMs stretch phone replacement cycles.
Alphawave: $2.4 billion AI connectivity bet nears the finish line
Qualcomm’s largest active M&A transaction is its $2.4 billion acquisition of Alphawave IP Group (Alphawave Semi), a UK‑listed designer of high‑speed connectivity and custom silicon for data centers. [37]
Key points:
- Qualcomm agreed in mid‑2025 to acquire Alphawave for about $2.4 billion in cash, representing a significant premium to Alphawave’s pre‑deal share price and continuing the trend of UK tech champions moving under U.S. ownership. [38]
- Regulators in major jurisdictions—including the U.S., Canada, Germany and others—have already cleared the deal. A recent green light from South Korean authorities was described as the final major hurdle. [39]
- TipRanks’ M&A coverage on November 27 characterized the Korean approval as effectively “sealing” the deal, with closing expected around early 2026 subject to remaining court procedures in the UK. [40]
Strategically, Alphawave brings Qualcomm:
- A portfolio of SerDes (serializer / deserializer) and high‑speed interconnect IP that is crucial for dense AI and networking chips.
- Experience in chiplets and custom ASICs for cloud and communications customers. [41]
Bridge loan signals commitment (and risk)
On November 28, 2025, Alphawave, Qualcomm and an acquisition subsidiary entered into a $20 million unsecured bridge loan agreement. [42]
According to the regulatory announcement:
- Qualcomm will provide Alphawave with a US$20 million credit facility at Term SOFR + 2.75%, intended to help the target company meet covenants and free up its existing cash for working capital while the transaction closes.
- The bridge loan ranks pari passu with Alphawave’s other unsecured, unsubordinated debt and must be repaid by a specified “Long Stop Date”—or earlier if the deal collapses or certain default events occur. [43]
The move underscores Qualcomm’s determination to see the acquisition through, but also highlights integration and credit‑risk questions that investors will continue to monitor into 2026.
Arduino acquisition: 33 million developers and a new AI‑edge beachhead
Another headline‑grabbing move this autumn was Qualcomm’s announcement that it will acquire Arduino, the Italian open‑source electronics platform that has become a staple in education, prototyping and hobbyist robotics.
On October 7, 2025, Qualcomm said it would purchase Arduino for an undisclosed sum. Key elements from Reuters and tech‑press coverage: [44]
- Arduino brings a community of more than 33 million active users in open‑source hardware and software, spanning IoT devices, wearables, 3D printing and embedded systems.
- Arduino retains its brand, tools and open‑source mission, and will continue to support chips from multiple vendors, not just Qualcomm.
- The first joint product, Arduino UNO Q, uses a Qualcomm Dragonwing processor paired with a classic microcontroller in a “dual‑brain” architecture, running Debian Linux plus real‑time microcontroller code and designed for lightweight AI tasks in vision and audio.
- A new development environment, Arduino App Lab, aims to integrate Linux, Python, real‑time OS work and AI workflows, tying into platforms such as Edge Impulse. [45]
Analysts see the acquisition as addressing a key weakness in Qualcomm’s previous strategy: limited direct access to the long‑tail developer community that prototypes the next generation of IoT and edge devices. By pairing Dragonwing‑class silicon with Arduino’s reach, Qualcomm hopes to seed future commercial designs and pull more projects into its broader ecosystem.
How analysts and institutions see QCOM now
Across major data providers, sentiment on Qualcomm is cautiously positive:
- Barchart reports that QCOM has a “Moderate Buy” consensus from around 29 analysts, with an average price target near $192, implying high‑teens upside from current levels. [46]
- TradingView aggregates analyst targets into a range from about $157 to $225 per share, with the upper end representing a meaningful re‑rating if AI bets pay off. [47]
- MarketBeat’s late‑November recap notes a cluster of price‑target hikes after Q4 earnings, including Susquehanna at $210 and other firms moving into the $190–$200 band. [48]
On ownership:
- Institutional investors hold roughly three‑quarters or more of Qualcomm’s free float, with large stakes disclosed by major asset managers and sovereign wealth funds. TechStock²+1
- There is also routine portfolio rebalancing, such as a recent disclosure that the New York State Common Retirement Fund trimmed its QCOM position—moves that can create noise in the short term but don’t change the underlying thesis. [49]
The long‑term track record remains mixed: a much‑circulated Kiplinger analysis points out that a 20‑year investment in QCOM has slightly lagged the S&P 500, even though over its full life as a public company Qualcomm has produced strong compounded returns. TechStock²
Key risks and what to watch into 2026
Heading into 2026, several themes will likely dominate how the market prices QCOM:
- Smartphone dependence and customer concentration
- Execution in AI data centers and industrial PCs
- AI200/AI250 must transition from impressive slides and early customer wins to repeatable deployments in a market dominated by Nvidia and AMD. [52]
- Dragonwing IQ‑X adoption by industrial OEMs will be watched as an indicator of whether Qualcomm can become a serious long‑term player in industrial compute. [53]
- M&A integration and balance sheet impact
- The Alphawave deal needs to close smoothly and then prove that high‑speed connectivity IP really accelerates Qualcomm’s data‑center ambitions, without eroding margins or stretching risk too far. [54]
- The Arduino acquisition, while smaller, will be a long‑term test of whether Qualcomm can cultivate a massive maker‑developer community without alienating its open‑source roots. [55]
- Regulatory and legal backdrop
- Qualcomm has a long history of antitrust and licensing disputes in the U.S., Europe and Asia, and new collective actions and investigations periodically crop up—risks that may intensify as it pushes deeper into AI infrastructure. TechStock²+1
Bottom line: a very different Qualcomm than five years ago
As of November 30, 2025, Qualcomm’s share price in the high‑$160s and a mid‑teens earnings multiple reflect a company straddling two worlds:
- In one, it is still the dominant mobile modem and Android SoC supplier, collecting licensing royalties and powering premium smartphones.
- In the other, it is rapidly becoming an AI‑first infrastructure and edge‑computing vendor, with bets spanning rack‑scale AI accelerators, industrial PCs, and a 33‑million‑strong open‑source developer ecosystem.
Whether QCOM’s stock ultimately breaks out of its long period of relative underperformance will depend on execution across that entire stack—from Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 phones and Dragonwing‑based factory PCs to Alphawave‑powered AI servers and Arduino‑driven edge devices.
References
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