Bitcoin Price Hovers Around $91K After Brutal November: ETF Flows, Whales and Forecasts (28

Bitcoin closed out November trading almost motionless around $91,000, but the calm hides one of the sharpest monthly pullbacks of 2025 – and a fierce debate over what comes next. From 28 to 30 November, BTC bounced in a tight $90,000–$93,000 range after briefly dipping below $80,000 earlier in the month. ^[1]

At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from record outflows to renewed inflows, the Coinbase Premium flipped positive for the first time in weeks, and on‑chain data suggested whales are quietly buying while retail interest stalls. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at where Bitcoin stands now, what drove the market between 28–30 November 2025, and how analysts are positioning their Bitcoin price forecasts for December and beyond.

1. Bitcoin Price Snapshot: 28–30 November 2025

Price range and volatility

Data from several market dashboards show that over 28–30 November, Bitcoin:

Traded mostly between $90,200 and $92,900
Repeatedly failed to hold above the $93,000 resistance zone
Spent most of the weekend gravitating around $91,000 ^[3]

Platforms such as Changelly and CryptoPotato list real‑time BTC prices near $91,000, with a 30‑day volatility around 8%and roughly 13 “green days” out of the last 30 – a modest bounce after a steep drawdown. ^[4]

November: second‑worst month of 2025

According to CoinGlass data summarized by BeInCrypto via TradingView, Bitcoin fell about 17.3% in November, making it: ^[5]

2025’s second‑worst month, just behind February’s 17.4% slide
Bitcoin’s steepest November drop since 2022

The same report notes that BTC:

Opened November near $110,000
Was still digesting an October spike to roughly $126,000
Briefly plunged below $80,000, a seven‑month low, before rebounding back toward $90,000+ by the end of the month ^[6]

Macro jitters – including new U.S. tariffs on China and a record U.S. government shutdown that tightened liquidity – plus weakening institutional inflows via ETFs are cited as major drivers of the slump. ^[7]

2. The Big Bitcoin Stories from 28–30 November

2.1 ETF Flows: From Record Outflows to a Late‑Month Rebound

Huge November outflows…

SoSoValue data, highlighted in multiple reports, show that Bitcoin spot ETFs bled roughly $3.5 billion in November, the second‑largest monthly outflow since U.S. spot products launched in 2024. ^[8]

AInvest and other analysts link the ETF exodus to:

Profit‑taking after Bitcoin’s move above $120K
A broader risk‑off mood tied to macro uncertainty
Short‑term holders locking in losses and de‑leveraging ^[9]

…but green shoots at the end of the month

By the final week of November, the picture started to change:

On Friday, 28 November, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $714 million of net inflows, led by ARK’s ARKB, according to SoSoValue data republished by Bitget and Wu Blockchain. ^[10]
For the week, spot BTC ETFs ended back in the green with a net inflow around $70 million, after losing about $1.2 billion the previous week. ^[11]

While modest compared with earlier bull‑run inflows, the late‑November reversal suggests institutional demand isn’t dead – just more selective and price‑sensitive.

2.2 BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Becomes a Revenue Monster

A separate CoinDesk report revealed that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETFs are now the firm’s top revenue source, an eye‑catching milestone for the world’s largest asset manager. ^[12]

Key datapoints from that coverage:

BlackRock’s U.S. spot ETF IBIT hit about $70.7 billion in assets in just 341 days – the fastest ETF in history to reach that scale.
Across products like IBIT and Brazil’s IBIT39, allocations have come “close to $100 billion”, according to BlackRock executives. ^[13]
IBIT is estimated to hold more than 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply and generate around $245 million per year in fees. ^[14]

BlackRock also boosted its own exposure: its Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio increased its IBIT stake by about 14% in the latest filing, underscoring persistent institutional conviction despite November’s drawdown. ^[15]

2.3 Coinbase Premium Flips Positive – U.S. Buyers Creep Back

One of the most‑discussed signals over the 28–30 November window was the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between BTC on Coinbase and the broader global market.

After weeks in negative territory, the premium turned positive again around 28–29 November, indicating U.S. traders are once more willing to pay slightly higher prices than the rest of the world: ^[16]

Coindesk described it as the first meaningful sign of a returning U.S. bid, with BTC hovering near $91,000 and needing a break above $95,000 to regain momentum. ^[17]
Binance and AInvest ran their own analyses framing the positive premium as a bullish micro‑signal that U.S. institutions and high‑net‑worth investors are accumulating again. ^[18]
CoinCentral’s coverage on 30 November tied the move directly to a potential push toward $100,000 if BTC can sustain price action above the $93K–$95K band. ^[19]

2.4 Whales Buy the Dip While Retail Stays on the Sidelines

On‑chain data reviewed by CryptoPotato suggest that the late‑November bounce from sub‑$81K lows to above $93K was driven primarily by whales, not retail traders: ^[20]

Large holders (whales) significantly increased accumulation once Bitcoin fell roughly $25,000 in just over a weekfrom the $100K+ area into the low $80Ks. ^[21]
Smaller addresses have been “basically missing for the past year,” with Google search interest for “Bitcoin” and “buy Bitcoin” still nowhere near prior cycle peaks, pointing to muted retail FOMO. ^[22]

The same article notes that ETF investors have also turned back on, mirroring the SoSoValue and Bitget data: after heavy redemptions earlier in November, the last week saw a modest but important return to net inflows. ^[23]

2.5 Macro and Fed: Market Prices in a December Rate Cut

While Bitcoin churned around $91K, macro headlines stayed front and center:

A Cointelegraph analysis reports that CME-fed futures now assign roughly 87% odds to a rate cut on 10 December, up from about 71% the prior week. ^[24]
BTC has struggled to break $93,000 even as the S&P 500 trades near record highs and gold pushes higher, a sign that crypto‑specific flows and derivatives positioning (especially put options) may be capping upside. ^[25]
Bitwise’s head of research told CoinDesk that Bitcoin is currently priced as if the world is in the “most bearish global growth outlook since Covid and the FTX crash”, even though many macro indicators are actually improving – implying BTC may be too pessimistic. ^[26]

2.6 Bitcoin vs. Gold: “Too Young” for Reserve Status?

Adding to the macro debate, CoinDesk published a widely shared piece titled “Why Gold Is Winning Over Bitcoin in 2025”, noting that since U.S. spot BTC ETFs launched: ^[27]

Gold is up about 58%
Bitcoin is down around 12%

Macro strategist Mark Connors argued that Bitcoin is still “too young” for many central banks and large asset allocators, who continue to prefer the liquidity and long‑standing infrastructure around gold for reserves and trade. The article frames Bitcoin’s recent slump as a liquidity squeeze rather than a rejection of the asset, with U.S. fiscal dynamics and Treasury spending delays playing a key role. ^[28]

2.7 Clash of Forecasts: From “Christmas Grinch” Crash to $250K

The final days of November also saw unusually polarized price calls:

Bearish camp:
- A strategist quoted by Finbold warned of a potential “Christmas Grinch” crash dragging BTC toward $50,000 if macro conditions deteriorate and ETF flows roll over again. ^[29]
- Other notes flagged Bitcoin as one of the “most oversold” readings in its history on certain technical metrics, which can either precede a sharp bounce or signal the start of a deeper cyclical reset. ^[30]
Ultra‑bullish camp:
- Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes reiterated a $250,000 year‑end 2025 target, claiming that the dip to around $80,600 marked the cycle’s bottom; he expects liquidity, ETF demand and macro policy to drive a parabolic leg higher. ^[31]
- CryptoRank and CoinCentral pieces argue that if BTC can reclaim and hold above $93K–$95K, a renewed push toward $100K is plausible as U.S. investors regain confidence and Coinbase Premium stays positive. ^[32]

The result: a market that is deeply split, with credible arguments pointing both toward a painful flush lower and a fresh all‑time high attempt.

3. Technical Picture: Key Levels After the November Sell‑Off

3.1 Support and Resistance Around $90K

Technical dashboards from CoinCodex show the following short‑term levels based on classic pivot points: ^[33]

Pivot (P1): ~$90,700
Support:
- S1: ~$90,300
- S2: ~$89,800
- S3: ~$89,500
Resistance:
- R1: ~$91,200
- R2: ~$91,600
- R3: ~$92,100

Brave New Coin’s intraday analysis on 30 November similarly highlighted $88,000 as a “critical line to hold”, noting that BTC was rejected near $93,000 and is now consolidating just above the $90K zone. ^[34]

3.2 Moving Averages Still Lean Bearish

Longer‑term moving averages are currently stacked well above spot price:

50‑day SMA: ~$103,000
100‑day SMA: ~$108,500
200‑day SMA: ~$104,400 ^[35]

With BTC trading around $91,000, that leaves the coin 10–15% below major daily MAs, a structure most TA tools flag as short‑term bearish even if the multi‑year trend remains up.

Momentum signals are more mixed:

RSI (14‑day): around 40.5, in neutral‑to‑slightly‑oversold territory
Several oscillators (MACD, momentum, CCI) cluster near neutral, while a few shorter‑term measures still point to selling pressure. ^[36]

3.3 On‑Chain and Activity Metrics

A widely cited analysis on Nasdaq/Motley Fool noted that Bitcoin’s mempool usage has dropped to unusually low levels, which the author framed as: ^[37]

A red flag for near‑term demand and network activity
But historically also a contrarian “buy the dip” signal when combined with oversold technicals

Meanwhile, on‑chain loss data tracked by Glassnode show short‑term holders realizing some of the largest daily losses since November 2022, consistent with capitulation behavior near local bottoms. ^[38]

4. Short‑Term Bitcoin Price Outlook: December 2025 Scenarios

Important note: The following is market commentary, not investment advice. Bitcoin is volatile and you can lose money quickly.

Based on the price action and data available up to 30 November 2025, here’s how many analysts frame the Decemberoutlook:

4.1 Base Case: Choppy Range Between ~$88K and ~$96K

ETF flows have stabilized but not exploded higher; the late‑month inflow is encouraging but small compared with November’s outflows. ^[39]
The Coinbase Premium turning positive and whale accumulation support the idea that $88K–$90K could act as a floor if macro conditions don’t deteriorate sharply. ^[40]
Technicals still show strong resistance just above, with $93K–$95K flagged repeatedly by Binance, Brave New Coin and others as the next hurdle. ^[41]

Interpretation:
Many desk notes and quant models expect range‑bound trading in the short term, with dips below $90K being bought by larger players and rallies toward $95K–$100K attracting profit‑taking from those who bought near the cycle top above $120K.

4.2 Bullish Scenario: Break Above $95K Opens the Door to $100K+

Several analyses – including those from CryptoRank, CoinCentral and AInvest – argue that a convincing daily close: ^[42]

Above $93K–$95K
With continued positive Coinbase Premium and sustained ETF inflows

…could set up a move back toward $100K–$102K, an area Brave New Coin still views as technically achievable within a broader bullish structure, despite the recent correction. ^[43]

Factors that could support this bullish path:

A larger‑than‑expected Fed rate cut on 10 December or dovish forward guidance
Continued whale accumulation and a return of retail interest if price pushes back toward six figures
A shift in ETF flows from modest inflows to sustained multi‑day surges, similar to early‑2025 patterns

4.3 Bearish Scenario: Loss of $88K Puts $80K – and Possibly $50K – on the Radar

On the downside, analysts point to several risks:

A decisive break below $88,000 would invalidate the recent higher‑low structure and expose the $80K zone that acted as support earlier in November. ^[44]
If ETF flows flip sharply negative again, the market could revisit or undershoot those lows. A Finbold‑cited strategist even warns of a slide toward $50,000 in a “Christmas Grinch” scenario if liquidity dries up and risk assets sell off globally. ^[45]
On‑chain, long‑term holders have not capitulated; if they begin distributing heavily, it could transform a sharp correction into a deeper cyclical reset. ^[46]

While this deep‑bear outcome is not the consensus, the wide gap between bullish and bearish forecasts underlines just how fragile sentiment remains after November’s 17% drop.

5. Medium‑ to Long‑Term Bitcoin Forecasts (2026–2030)

5.1 Exchange and Aggregator Models

Crypto exchanges and data aggregators continue to publish multi‑year BTC forecasts based on historical cycles, adoption curves and quantitative models. Two examples:

CoinDCX (India) presents a 2025–2030 table with rough ranges such as:
- 2025: ~$85,000–$125,000
- 2026: ~$120,000–$175,000
- 2027: ~$135,000–$200,000
- 2030: up to around $320,000 at the optimistic end ^[47]
CoinCodex and Changelly likewise suggest that:
- Bitcoin could average somewhere in the low six figures during the current cycle
- Long‑term projections for 2030+ span from $250,000 to well above $1 million in extreme “hyperbitcoinization” scenarios ^[48]

These models do not guarantee outcomes; they are best read as scenario maps based on past halvings and adoption rates.

5.2 High‑Conviction Bulls

Beyond Arthur Hayes’s $250K by end‑2025 call, other pro‑Bitcoin voices argue that: ^[49]

Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries have fundamentally changed the demand base, turning Bitcoin into something closer to a quasi‑reserve asset.
The current drawdown may resemble previous post‑halving mid‑cycle corrections that preceded the final leg of the bull run.
Oversold technical indicators, subdued retail interest and persistent institutional infrastructure build‑out together point to higher highs over a multi‑year horizon, even if the near term is messy.

5.3 Structural Headwinds

However, the late‑November coverage also underscores several long‑term challenges:

Gold’s outperformance this year shows that many central banks and sovereign wealth funds still prefer traditional hard assets for reserves. ^[50]
Regulatory pressure, surveillance concerns and stablecoin scrutiny – highlighted in various macro and policy pieces – continue to complicate Bitcoin’s path to mainstream reserve status. ^[51]
ETF concentration (with BlackRock’s IBIT alone controlling over 3% of supply) raises questions about custodial risk and centralization, even as it turbo‑charges liquidity. ^[52]

The bottom line: long‑term models skew bullish, but with a huge confidence interval.

6. What This Means for Traders and Long‑Term Holders

Again: this is not financial advice. Think of it as a structured summary of what different parts of the market are seeing right now.

6.1 For Short‑Term Traders

Key levels and signals many desks are watching into December:

Support: $90K (psychological) and $88K (technical line in the sand) ^[53]
Resistance: $93K–$95K; then the prior cluster around $100K–$102K ^[54]
Flow signals:
- Direction of spot ETF flows (especially IBIT and ARKB)
- Persistence of a positive Coinbase Premium
- Options skew between calls and puts near the December Fed meeting ^[55]

Short‑term strategies are likely to stay event‑driven (Fed decisions, ETF flow surprises, macro data) rather than purely technical.

6.2 For Longer‑Term Investors

For multi‑year holders, the late‑November picture can be framed as:

A sharp but historically normal bull‑market correction (~17% down in a month, ~35% off the cycle high) ^[56]
Occurring alongside:
- Record‑scale ETF products with deepening institutional ownership
- Whales quietly accumulating while retail interest remains muted
- Mixed macro signals where liquidity and rate expectations may improve heading into 2026 ^[57]

Practical risk‑management ideas often mentioned by analysts (not recommendations, just common themes):

Position sizing: Assume double‑digit monthly drawdowns are possible; size positions so that another 30–50% drop would not be catastrophic.
Time horizon: Align Bitcoin exposure with a multi‑year view, not a single‑month forecast.
Diversification: Consider how Bitcoin fits into a broader portfolio that might include cash, bonds, equities and, for some, gold – especially given gold’s strong relative performance in 2025. ^[58]

7. Final Word

Between 28 and 30 November 2025, Bitcoin didn’t move much on the chart – but under the surface, ETF flows, whale behavior, macro expectations and sentiment all shifted in important ways.

November locked in as one of Bitcoin’s worst months of the year, driven by macro turbulence and ETF outflows. ^[59]
Yet the month ended with renewed ETF inflows, a positive Coinbase Premium, and clear signs that larger investors are buying into weakness. ^[60]
Forecasts now span from a doom‑laden $50K “Grinch” crash to $250K ultra‑bull targets, reflecting just how wide the uncertainty band is as Bitcoin consolidates around $91K. ^[61]

For anyone following or reporting on the market, December is shaping up to be a pivotal month: the Fed’s next move, ETF behavior and whether $88K holds or breaks will likely define how this bull cycle is remembered.

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